1810 Winding Creek Cir · Gonzalez, FL 32533

$229,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,527 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 256 Days on market

Built 2019 0.46 ac lot Est $286k · 19% under $12/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * * Competitive Price Improvement! * * * Welcome to your dream home at the end of a peaceful cul-de-sac! This charming residence offers four bedrooms and two full bathrooms, providing plenty of space for rest, relaxation, and everyday convenience. The well-designed floor plan features a kitchen that flows seamlessly into both the dining room and family room, making it perfect for family gathering and entertaining. You’ll also enjoy the versatility of a separate living room and cozy family room—spaces thoughtfully designed to suit your lifestyle. The exterior boasts timeless brick veneer siding, complemented by energy-efficient solar panels that provide both sustainability

Key facts

• Brick veneer siding
• Generous lot
• Cul-de-sac

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• BRICK VENEER SIDING
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• GENEROUS LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with annual fee ($145.75) covering association and deed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached oversized garage with garage door opener (1 covered/garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Copper wiring; Cable available
• Home design: Single-story home; Resale property; Not attached to other properties; Private maintained paved road; Located in a cul-de-sac; interior lot; Solar energy generation; Ridge vent
• Construction: Frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; One level
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Chain link partial backyard fence; Yard building

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master on first floor; All bedrooms on first floor
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on first floor)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Storage; Baseboards; Double pane windows; Shutters
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $227k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.2% in Gonzalez — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#385 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Escambia (suburban): math 40% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #56 of 73 in FL (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 513 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,479 units permitted in Escambia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Escambia County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 256 days — a 12% lower offer ($202k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $35k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $230k implies a 1143% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $202,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 256 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $285,549
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1810 Winding Creek Cir	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,527 (0%)	1mo	$229,900	$151	100
1811 Winding Creek Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,561 (+2%)	18mo	$296,000	$190	75
2103 Squire Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0	1,400 (-8%)	11mo	$243,000	$174	61
1893 Brentco Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,400 (-8%)	14mo	$315,000	$225	55
2284 Country Place Cir	0.61mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,642 (+8%)	7mo	$285,000	$174	48
1605 Kinsale Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,612 (+6%)	9mo	$335,500	$208	45
1613 Kinsale Dr	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,585 (+4%)	12mo	$312,500	$197	44
2273 Libra Ln	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,695 (+11%)	16mo	$254,000	$150	39
1604 Kinsale Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,659 (+9%)	18mo	$275,000	$166	31
2189 Liberty Loop Rd	0.72mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,309 (-14%)	15mo	$245,000	$187	25

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-24,544
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-4,904
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32533

• Home prices YoY: -14.6%
• Active inventory: 513
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,269 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$280 /mo · $3,363/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$477
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,017

Max offer price $229,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
404 Buxton Way Cantonment, FL	4.0	3.0	2200	$2,495	$1.13	23d	1	0.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $229,900 Pending 256 DOM
2. 2026-04-30
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-04-25
   price $229,900
4. 2026-03-04
   price $239,900
5. 2025-12-11
   price $255,000
6. 2025-10-24
   price $259,900
7. 2025-09-15
   listed $265,000 Active
8. 2025-07-27
   historical
9. 2025-05-21
   price $265,000
10. 2025-04-04
    price $269,000
11. 2024-12-17
    price $275,000
12. 2024-02-28
    price $279,990
13. 2023-12-23
    listed $299,900 Active
14. 1993-11-01
    soldstatus $18,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,363 · $280/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,229
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,363
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,178
• − Management: −$2,178
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$1,350
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$324
• After-tax cash flow: $2,711/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Escambia
• NCES district ID: 1200510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,649
• Composite: 36.04/100
• National rank: #4773
• State rank: #56 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gonzalez

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #385
• US rank: #6813

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gonzalez, FL
• County: Escambia County · 301,722 people
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 31,860
• Household income: $86,087
• Rent vs Own: 15.4% rent · 84.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 389.0

Population outlook (Escambia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 334,637 people
• By 2030: 345,779 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 364,828 · +9.0%
• By 2050: 378,514 · +13.1%
• By 2075: 403,220 · +20.5%
• By 2100: 386,125 · +15.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala, China
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Escambia

• 2024 margin: R (+19.5) · D 39.7% · R 59.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.2pp no change · 2008: -19.3pp · 2024: -19.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.5 2020: R+15.1 2016: R+20.6 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 259.2605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1142.7% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Contingent — PARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $229,900 PARMLS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $239,900 PARMLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $255,000 PARMLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $259,900 PARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Listed $265,000 PARMLS
• 2025-07-27 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $265,000 PARMLS
• 2025-04-04 Price Changed $269,000 PARMLS
• 2024-12-17 Price Changed $275,000 PARMLS
• 2024-02-28 Price Changed $279,990 PARMLS
• 2023-12-23 Listed $299,900 PARMLS
• 1993-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+24.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,363 · +12.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.