3058 Rocky Ridge Rd · Henderson, AR 72653

$185,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,904 sqft · Manufactured · 90 Days on market

Built 1994 0.72 ac lot $97/sqft · 11% below area Est $207k · 11% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Home close to Lake Norfork Access on level 0.72 AC M/L. 3 Bedroom 3 bath nice size rooms. Fireplace Open kitchen Primary bedroom has ensuite Bath. Deck to enjoy wildlife. Appliances convey. 1904 SQ FT $185,000

Key facts

• Ensuite bath
• Lake norfork access
• Appliances convey

Tags

• LAKE NORFORK ACCESS
• ENSUITE BATH
• DECK TO ENJOY WILDLIFE
• APPLIANCES CONVEY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-62 ($-742/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $131k (29.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $131k (29.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 1.9% in Henderson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 386 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 11 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $185k implies a 256% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $131,367 (29.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.43%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $207,000
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -10.63%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
228 Cr 387	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	2mo	$207,000	$115	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-34,004
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,045
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72653

• Home prices YoY: -15.8%
• Active inventory: 386
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,314 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $628/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$276
• Net cashflow: $-62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,392

Max offer price $174,083

Occupancy floor 100%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 42 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $185,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $185,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 70 DOM
16. 2026-03-27
    listed $185,000 New Listing 209-char remark

    Show marketing remark (209 chars)

    Home close to Lake Norfork Access on level 0.72 AC M/L. 3 Bedroom 3 bath nice size rooms. Fireplace Open kitchen Primary bedroom has ensuite Bath. Deck to enjoy wildlife. Appliances convey. 1904 SQ FT $185,000

17. 2026-03-25
    listed $185,000 Active 532-char remark

    Show marketing remark (532 chars)

    Located near scenic Lake Norfork access, this spacious 3-bedroom, 3-bath home offers 1,904 sq ft of comfortable living. Enjoy the inviting living room with a cozy fireplace, an open-concept kitchen perfect for entertaining, and a large primary suite featuring a private en-suite bath. Step out onto the deck to take in beautiful views of nature and local wildlife. Appliances are included for added convenience. With ample indoor space and a peaceful setting, this property is ideal as a rental or vacation home. Listed at $185,000.

18. 2025-10-03
    historical
19. 2025-10-02
    status Active
20. 2025-08-31
    historical
21. 2025-04-07
    status Back on Market
22. 2025-04-02
    historical
23. 2024-10-18
    price $215,000
24. 2024-10-18
    price $215,000
25. 2024-10-17
    listed $235,000 Active
26. 2024-10-01
    listed $225,000 New Listing
27. 2024-03-06
    historical
28. 2024-03-06
    price $215,000
29. 2023-11-20
    price $215,000
30. 2023-11-10
    price $210,000
31. 2023-11-09
    price $210,000
32. 2023-10-30
    listed $199,900 New Listing
33. 2023-09-01
    historical
34. 2023-08-31
    status Active
35. 2023-08-09
    historical
36. 2023-07-19
    price $199,900
37. 2023-07-18
    price $199,900
38. 2023-04-20
    price $219,900
39. 2023-04-06
    listed $219,900 Active
40. 2023-02-15
    listed $235,000 New Listing
41. 2021-02-24
    soldstatus $52,000
42. 2020-09-18
    listed $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $628 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,184 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: +$556/yr (+$46/mo · 88.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$628
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,261
• − Management: −$1,261
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable loss: −$4,056
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$973
• After-tax cash flow: $232/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Henderson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Baxter County · 29,564 people
• Metro: Mountain Home, AR
• Population (ZIP): 29,564
• Household income: $48,718
• Rent vs Own: 26.1% rent · 73.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 663.0

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.18%
• Current HPI: 246.3231
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Mountain Home, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+208.3% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Listed $185,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-25 Listed $185,000 MHMLS
• 2025-10-03 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2025-10-02 Relisted — MHMLS
• 2025-08-31 Delisted — MHMLS
• 2025-04-07 Relisted — CARMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2024-10-18 Price Changed $215,000 MHMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $235,000 MHMLS
• 2024-10-01 Listed $225,000 CARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Price Changed $215,000 CARMLS
• 2023-11-20 Price Changed $215,000 MHMLS
• 2023-11-10 Price Changed $210,000 CARMLS
• 2023-11-09 Price Changed $210,000 MHMLS
• 2023-10-30 Listed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2023-09-01 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2023-08-31 Relisted — MHMLS
• 2023-08-09 Delisted — MHMLS
• 2023-07-19 Price Changed $199,900 CARMLS
• 2023-07-18 Price Changed $199,900 MHMLS
• 2023-04-20 Price Changed $219,900 CARMLS
• 2023-04-06 Listed $219,900 MHMLS
• 2023-02-15 Listed $235,000 CARMLS
• 2021-02-24 Sold (MLS) $52,000 NEABOR MLS
• 2020-09-18 Listed $60,000 NEABOR MLS

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $628 · +6.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.