414 E German St · Herkimer, NY 13350

$55,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,120 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 154 Days on market

Built 1920 4,500 sqft lot $49/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

Key facts

• Ample parking
• Patio space
• Enclosed front porch

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• DETACHED ONE-CAR GARAGE
• PATIO SPACE
• CONVENIENT LAUNDRY AREA
• AMPLE PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $963 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 27.3% vs local median 5.5% in Herkimer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#392 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities D+, crime D.
• Herkimer Central School District (town): math 46% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #455 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 54 units permitted in Herkimer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($380 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Herkimer County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 154 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $52k (49%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $48,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 154 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 27.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 75.03%
• DSCR: 4.34
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,388
• List price: $55,000
• Delta: -69.34%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Steuben Rd	0.12mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,115 (-0%)	5mo	$159,500	$143	85
310 Steuben St	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+7%)	9mo	$148,000	$124	65
609 Malcolm St	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,137 (+2%)	7mo	$110,000	$97	63
209 Pullman St	0.53mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,092 (-2%)	13mo	$152,000	$139	53
115 Hillside Ave	0.34mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-8%)	16mo	$145,000	$140	51
25 Dayton Pl	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,250 (+12%)	18mo	$170,000	$136	50
150 Folts Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,188 (+6%)	10mo	$184,000	$155	49
1097 E German St. Ext	0.54mi	3/1.0	964 (-14%)	2mo	$190,000	$197	48
309 Eureka Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,183 (+6%)	15mo	$105,000	$89	37
602 Pine Ave	0.69mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,014 (-10%)	10mo	$154,900	$153	37
181 Folts Rd	0.60mi	2/1.0 (-1)	983 (-12%)	15mo	$174,000	$177	33
307 Park Ave	0.69mi	3/1.0	1,236 (+10%)	22mo	$132,500	$107	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.5%
• Equity multiple: 6.93×
• Total profit: $91,308
• Equity at exit: $49,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 80.0%
• Equity multiple: 15.33×
• Total profit: $220,711
• Equity at exit: $106,853

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13350

• Home prices YoY: 8.9%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $963

Break-even live

Break-even rent $481

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 38%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,001	-5% $982	+0% $963	+5% $944	+10% $925
Rent	-10% $829	-5% $896	+0% $963	+5% $1,030	+10% $1,097
Rate	-1.0pp $991	-0.5pp $977	base $963	+0.5pp $949	+1.0pp $934

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
502 Lake St Herkimer, NY	3.0	1.0	1125	$1,700	$1.51	44d	1	0.14mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $55,000 Pending 154 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $55,000 Active 153 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $55,000 Active 152 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $55,000 Active 151 DOM
5. 2026-05-01
   price $85,000 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

6. 2026-04-23
   price $90,000 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

7. 2026-03-04
   price $96,300 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

8. 2026-01-31
   price $101,650 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

9. 2025-12-31
   listed $107,000 Active 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Charming two-story village home offering great potential for its next owner. Enjoy the enclosed front porch, a detached one-car garage, and a patio space tucked behind the garage. Upstairs you’ll find three bedrooms and a full bath, while the main floor includes a half bath and convenient laundry area. The shared driveway leads to ample parking in the rear, making this home both practical and full of opportunity.

10. 2024-01-16
    historical
11. 2023-10-14
    status Pending Sale
12. 2023-09-15
    status Under Contract- Do Not Show
13. 2023-09-05
    historical Continue to Show- Under Contract
14. 2023-09-04
    historical
15. 2023-08-23
    price $90,000
16. 2023-07-24
    listed $99,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,632
• − Management: −$1,632
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $11,355
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,725
• After-tax cash flow: $8,830/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herkimer Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3614220
• Math proficiency: 46% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,447
• Composite: 38.87/100
• National rank: #4100
• State rank: #455 of 590 in NY

Livability — Herkimer

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #6787

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herkimer, NY
• Population (ZIP): 9,641

Population outlook (Herkimer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 59,340 people
• By 2030: 56,838 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 51,098 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 45,080 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 32,648 · -45.0%
• By 2100: 22,266 · -62.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Black 2% Asian 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Herkimer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.4) · D 31.8% · R 68.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.3pp · 2024: -36.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.4 2020: R+30.5 2016: R+34.5 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+9.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 26.43%
• Current HPI: 324.4601
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-14.9% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $85,000 CNYIS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $96,300 CNYIS
• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $101,650 CNYIS
• 2025-12-31 Listed $107,000 CNYIS
• 2024-01-16 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-10-14 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-09-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2023-09-05 Contingent — CNYIS
• 2023-09-04 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2023-08-23 Price Changed $90,000 CNYIS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $99,900 CNYIS

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,424 · +3.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.