712 Black St · Jasper, TX 75951

$28,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 67 Days on market

0.45 ac lot $26/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.45 acre lot
• Listed 67 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $28k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $875 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $28k).
• Recommended offer: $26k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 43.8% vs local median 4.5% in Jasper — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,225 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Jasper ISD (town): math 22% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #734 of 826 in TX (top 89%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Jean C Few Pri (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #4,180 of 4,322 statewide, top 97%, 699 students, 91% FRL); Jasper J H (math 27% / reading 24%, grade F, #1,236 of 1,662 statewide, top 76%, 493 students, 83% FRL); Jasper H S (math 24% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,044 of 1,632 statewide, top 66%, 681 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 66% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 309 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 16d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45 units permitted in Jasper County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $194 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $840 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jasper County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($26k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $26,320 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.81% ✓
• Cap rate: 43.78%
• Cash-on-cash: 133.87%
• DSCR: 6.96
• GRM: 1.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $93,278
• List price: $28,000
• Delta: -69.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
112 E Morris St	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,059 (-2%)	19mo	$77,000	$73	42
218 E Morris St	0.68mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,172 (+9%)	12mo	$84,999	$73	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 7.53×
• Total profit: $51,186
• Equity at exit: $4,175

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 15.84×
• Total profit: $116,373
• Equity at exit: $2,421

Cash invested: $7,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75951

• Active inventory: 309
• Price-to-rent: 1.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,346 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$147
• Tax from tax record: −$30 /mo · $364/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$283
• Net cashflow: $875

Break-even live

Break-even rent $239

Max offer price $28,000

Occupancy floor 30%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $890	-5% $883	+0% $875	+5% $867	+10% $859
Rent	-10% $768	-5% $821	+0% $875	+5% $928	+10% $981
Rate	-1.0pp $889	-0.5pp $882	base $875	+0.5pp $867	+1.0pp $860

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,000
• Closing costs: $840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
469 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$1,600	$1.19	15d	1	1.11mi
816 Ogden St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1270	$1,095	$0.86	15d	1	1.35mi
209 Cavin St Jasper, TX	3.0	1.0	1418	$1,300	$0.92	21d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $28,000 Active 67 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $28,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $28,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $28,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $28,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $28,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $28,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $28,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $28,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $28,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $28,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $28,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $28,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $28,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $28,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 46 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $28,000 Active 45 DOM
18. 2026-04-15
    listed $28,000 Active
19. 2024-02-23
    soldstatus
20. 2022-07-11
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $364 · $30/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$148/yr (+$12/mo · 40.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,154
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,568
• − Property taxes: −$364
• − Insurance: −$140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,292
• − Management: −$1,292
• − Depreciation: −$815
• Taxable income: $10,682
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,564
• After-tax cash flow: $7,932/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jasper ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824630
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $36,286
• Composite: 19.91/100
• National rank: #8684
• State rank: #734 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jasper

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1225
• US rank: #21385

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety C+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jasper, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,267

Population outlook (Jasper County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,986 people
• By 2030: 32,965 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 30,908 · -9.1%
• By 2050: 28,893 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 24,828 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 19,987 · -41.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 28% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jasper

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.6) · D 16.5% · R 83.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.6pp toward R · 2008: -42.0pp · 2024: -66.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.6 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+59.9 2012: R+48.4 2008: R+42.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.56%
• Current HPI: 136.7972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $28,000 BBOR
• 2024-02-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

-2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $364 · +3.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.