22060 Baja Ln · California, MD 20634

$289,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 34 Days on market

Built 1974 0.34 ac lot Est $280k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.3/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 3 parking spots
• Built 1974

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with three parking spaces; On-street parking available; Three total garage and parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric utilities
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Above-grade living space only; Assessor lists year built
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Stick-built construction; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade and below-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Front yard; Landscaped yard; Rear yard; Side yards

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level; One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating (electric); Window air conditioning units (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor
• Laundry & utility: Main-floor laundry; Has laundry hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $55 ($659/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $232k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $232k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in California — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#127 in MD) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D+, amenities F, commute F.
• St. Mary'S County Public Schools (rural): math 23% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #8 of 24 in MD (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 265 units permitted in St. Mary's County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Mary's County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($280k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $289k implies a 622% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $232,257 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.52%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.81%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $279,840
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
21701 Tammie Dr	0.72mi	3/1.0	1,056 (0%)	2mo	$279,840	$265	63
22148 Towey Ct	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,152 (+9%)	16mo	$249,500	$217	61
45756 Horsehead Rd	0.58mi	3/1.0	1,144 (+8%)	23mo	$290,000	$253	38
22344 Chancellors Run Rd	0.70mi	3/1.0	960 (-9%)	20mo	$309,000	$322	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-43,431
• Equity at exit: $43,091

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-33,716
• Equity at exit: $24,987

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 20634

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,323 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,727/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$488
• Net cashflow: $55

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,253

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $219	-5% $137	+0% $55	+5% $-27	+10% $-109
Rent	-10% $-129	-5% $-37	+0% $55	+5% $147	+10% $238
Rate	-1.0pp $200	-0.5pp $128	base $55	+0.5pp $-20	+1.0pp $-96

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 17 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,000 Coming Soon 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    historical $289,000
18. 1987-08-31
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,727 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,439 · $203/mo
• Expected delta: +$711/yr (+$59/mo · 41.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$1,727
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,230
• − Management: −$2,230
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$4,357
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,046
• After-tax cash flow: $1,705/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Mary'S County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400600
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $83,240
• Composite: 29.74/100
• National rank: #6444
• State rank: #8 of 24 in MD

Livability — California

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #5421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime D+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: California, MD
• County: Saint Marys County · 48,152 people
• City population: 14,212
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• Population (ZIP): 7,088
• Household income: $139,375
• Rent vs Own: 34.6% rent · 65.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 111.0

Population outlook (St. Mary's County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,125 people
• By 2030: 128,374 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 137,305 · +11.5%
• By 2050: 143,065 · +16.2%
• By 2075: 153,408 · +24.6%
• By 2100: 151,790 · +23.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 31% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Mary's

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.2% · R 57.4% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -12.8pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+13.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+16.1 2008: R+12.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -14.78%
• Current HPI: 244.1447
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: California-Lexington Park, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+622.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Coming Soon $289,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1987-08-31 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,727 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.