2902 Gabriel St #3 · Mission, TX 78574

$170,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,044 sqft · Condo · 16 Days on market

Built 2025 Good condition $46/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Take a look at this NEW construction CONDO in Crystal Estates Phase IV, Mission, TX, complete with a full appliance package including a washer, dryer, refrigerator, and range. This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home features a spacious open-concept layout with porcelain tile flooring and elegant decorative ceilings throughout. The stylish kitchen showcases quartz countertops and comes fully equipped for convenience. Energy-efficient features such as double-pane windows and attic fans provide enhanced comfort and lower utility costs. Additional highlights include a sprinkler system and covered parking for two vehicles. Located near schools, shopping, and major roadways, this condo offers the perfect ble

Key facts

• Gated community
• Stylish kitchen
• Tile flooring

Tags

• NEW CONSTRUCTION CONDO
• GATED COMMUNITY
• TILE FLOORING
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• MOVE-IN-READY CONVENIENCE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area source: Blue prints; Tax year 2024
• Financial info: Escrow: 1700
• HOA & community: Mandatory POA membership; Annual association fee of $550; POA transfer fee applies; Gated community; Community sidewalks; Association: CRYSTAL ESTATES PH IV

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2 covered spaces; Detached carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City sewer; Paved road access; Electric water heater
• Home design: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation
• Construction: Built with stucco; Slab foundation; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Motorized gate; Sprinkler system; Sidewalks; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven-microwave; Stove/Range (electric smooth); Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Bedrooms: Living area(s): 1
• Flooring: Porcelain tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Attic fans
• Interior features: Quartz countertops; Ceiling fan(s); Microwave; Double-pane windows; No window coverings
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($91/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (8.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (8.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.5% in Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#148 in TX, #4,155 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment D-.
• Mission CISD (urban): math 15% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #775 of 826 in TX (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 78% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hilda C Escobar/Alicia C Rios El (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #4,021 of 4,322 statewide, top 94%, 373 students, 87% FRL); Alton Memorial J H (math 10% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,556 of 1,662 statewide, top 94%, 819 students, 91% FRL); Mission H S (math 18% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,348 of 1,632 statewide, top 83%, 2,218 students, 91% FRL).
• Market conditions: 477 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($52k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $155,500 (8.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.19%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,010
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-22,685
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78574

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Active inventory: 477
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,555 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,545

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $66	+0% $8	+5% $-51	+10% $-110
Rent	-10% $-115	-5% $-54	+0% $8	+5% $69	+10% $130
Rate	-1.0pp $93	-0.5pp $51	base $8	+0.5pp $-36	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2905 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	45d	1	0.05mi
2903 Estevan St #4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$1,399	$1.32	21d	1	0.05mi
2903 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1044	$1,400	$1.34	16d	1	0.05mi
2905 Estevan St #3 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	1044	$1,300	$1.25	25d	1	0.05mi
3006 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,600	$1.12	45d	1	0.29mi
3102 Gabriel St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1370	$1,800	$1.31	45d	1	0.32mi
1805 Ramirez St Unit 4 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	45d	1	0.49mi
1804 Ramirez St Unit 1 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1020	$1,250	$1.23	25d	1	0.50mi
3201 Magdalena St #7 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	770	$950	$1.23	25d	1	0.59mi
3201 Magdalena St #2 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	775	$1,000	$1.29	45d	1	0.59mi
3201 Magdalena St Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	775	$1,000	$1.29	25d	1	0.59mi
1809 Ramirez St Unit 2 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1033	$1,300	$1.26	45d	1	0.60mi
3206 N Moorefield Rd Mission, TX	2.0	1.5	1042	$895	$0.86	25d	4	0.69mi
3809 N Inspiration Rd Apt 4 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	849	$695	$0.82	45d	1	0.95mi
702 W 25th St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,650	$1.20	21d	1	0.97mi
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 16 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	45d	1	1.07mi
1604 Inspiration Rd Unit 14 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	740	$775	$1.05	21d	1	1.07mi
1600 Inspiration Rd Apt 34 Mission, TX	2.0	1.0	868	$780	$0.90	45d	1	1.07mi
712 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	960	$1,100	$1.15	16d	1	1.19mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 3 Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	960	$1,350	$1.41	16d	1	1.20mi
707 Palmer Rd Unit 1 Mission, TX	2.0	2.0	760	$1,200	$1.58	16d	1	1.20mi
2104 Magnolia St Mission, TX	3.0	2.5	1382	$1,500	$1.09	45d	1	1.26mi
2002 Thornton St Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,300	$0.95	45d	1	1.34mi
983 Washington Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1040	$1,300	$1.25	45d	1	1.41mi
2008 N Cummings Ave Mission, TX	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,300	$1.28	45d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $170,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 10 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 8 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $170,000 Active 3 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on marketlisting id $170,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 157 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 156 DOM
13. 2025-12-26
    listed $189,000 Active 760-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$2,746
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$659
• After-tax cash flow: $750/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This new construction condo in Crystal Estates Phase IV is in excellent condition with modern features and energy-efficient upgrades. It offers a spacious open-concept layout, modern kitchen, and bathroom, and is located near schools, shopping, and major roadways.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's value in the market.
• Both Install smart thermostat — Reduces energy costs and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances the home's ambiance and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers.
• Both Add smart home automation system — Enhances convenience and can be a selling point for buyers.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Enhances the home's curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Improves convenience and can increase the home's value in the market. ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Reduces energy costs and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart lighting system — Enhances the home's ambiance and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart security system — Enhances safety and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑
• Both Add smart home automation system — Enhances convenience and can be a selling point for buyers. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mission CISD
• NCES district ID: 4831040
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $32,855
• Composite: 17.47/100
• National rank: #9061
• State rank: #775 of 826 in TX

Livability — Mission

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #148
• US rank: #4155

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mission, TX
• County: Hidalgo County · 623,128 people
• City population: 78,024
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• Population (ZIP): 62,456
• Household income: $52,393
• Rent vs Own: 20.0% rent · 80.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Hidalgo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 955,232 people
• By 2030: 1,009,774 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,120,332 · +17.3%
• By 2050: 1,225,036 · +28.2%
• By 2075: 1,439,189 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 1,533,429 · +60.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 62% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 93%
• Foreign-born: 33% · Canada
• Languages at home: 12% English-only · Spanish 87%

Political lean MEDSL · Hidalgo

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.1% · R 51.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -41.6pp toward R · 2008: 38.7pp · 2024: -2.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.9 2020: D+17.1 2016: D+40.5 2012: D+41.8 2008: D+38.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -44.13%
• Current HPI: 230.3323
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $170,000 MCALLENMLS
• 2025-12-26 Listed $189,000 MCALLENMLS