21811 Clarks Rd · Alford, FL 32438

$111,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,736 sqft · Manufactured public records

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.8/10.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Motivated seller!! This is 5.33 acres Handyman special or remove and replace.

Key facts

• Built 1996

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $111k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $111k).
• Cap rate 13.1% vs local median 2.8% in Alford — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#819 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, health & safety D, schools F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 146 active listings in the ZIP; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($767 loan paydown + $6k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $50k; list at $111k implies a 124% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $111,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 24.24%
• DSCR: 2.08
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.5% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $68,721
• Equity at exit: $66,290

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $171,726
• Equity at exit: $117,313

Cash invested: $31,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32438

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 146
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,642 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$582
• Tax from tax record: −$41 /mo · $487/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $847

Max offer price $111,000

Occupancy floor 57%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $691	-5% $659	+0% $628	+5% $596	+10% $565
Rent	-10% $498	-5% $563	+0% $628	+5% $693	+10% $758
Rate	-1.0pp $684	-0.5pp $656	base $628	+0.5pp $599	+1.0pp $570

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,750
• Closing costs: $3,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $111,000
2. 2021-12-14
   historical
3. 1998-12-01
   soldstatus $49,500
4. 1998-03-14
   listed $67,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $487 · $41/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $921 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$434/yr (+$36/mo · 89.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,698
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,218
• − Property taxes: −$487
• − Insurance: −$555
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,576
• − Management: −$1,576
• − Depreciation: −$3,229
• Taxable income: $6,057
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,454
• After-tax cash flow: $6,080/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Alford

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #819
• US rank: #20017

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,839

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.50%
• Current HPI: 209.7768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+65.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $111,000 FSBO.com
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 1998-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,500 Public Records
• 1998-03-14 Listed $67,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $487 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.