3425 Porter St · Heber-Overgaard, AZ 85928

$395,000

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,880 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 1990 9,642 sqft lot $210/sqft · 27% below area Est $541k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• 1% rule +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This great home sits in a well established neighborhood and close to many amenities. There is plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 primary bedrooms with en suites. Property is zoned both residential and commercial, which offers many opportunities if you had an in home business. There is a large office/den or family room. This room could even be used as a 5th bedroom if needed. Separate laundry area with door to backyard. Newer flooring in most areas and newer counter tops. The fenced yard is perfect to keep the kids or your pets in. Utility shed for extra storage. This home is offered at an amazing price. Call today for more details.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Fenced yard
• Spacious bonus room

Tags

• SPACIOUS BONUS ROOM
• FENCED YARD
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fees

Exterior

• Parking: 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Grass front yard; Grass back yard; Automatic water timer in front yard; Automatic water timer in back yard; County-maintained road; Chain link fence; Composition roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Dishwasher; Built-in microwave
• Bedrooms: Up to 5 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 3 total bathrooms (2 full, 1 half)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heating; Floor furnace; Wall furnace
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Two master bathrooms; Full bathroom in master bedroom; Family room fireplace; Solar panels
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $395k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-439 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $317k (19.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (39.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $240k (39.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.2% in Heber-Overgaard — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392) (rural): math 52% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #51 of 249 in AZ (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain Meadows Primary (math 70% / reading 50%, grade B-, #148 of 1,109 statewide, top 15%, 143 students, 43% FRL); Mogollon Jr High School (math 42% / reading 32%, grade F, #57 of 218 statewide, top 27%, 77 students, 0% FRL); Mogollon High School (math 30% / reading 30%, grade F, #116 of 381 statewide, top 31%, 167 students, 32% FRL) — zoned schools average 25% FRL vs 50% district-wide (25 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 157 active listings in the ZIP; 485 units permitted in Navajo County in 2024 (11 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.9% local appreciation)).
• Navajo County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($383k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $312k; 26% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $239,538 (39.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 39% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.61% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.76%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 13.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $540,617
• List price: $395,000
• Delta: -26.94%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3456 Porter St	0.20mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,728 (-8%)	21mo	$400,000	$231	53
3645 Zane Gray Trl	0.65mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,841 (-2%)	12mo	$540,000	$293	50
1828 Crandell	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,738 (-8%)	10mo	$288,000	$166	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.86% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-23,542
• Equity at exit: $131,918

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $13,448
• Equity at exit: $173,066

Cash invested: $110,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85928

• Home prices YoY: 0.2%
• Active inventory: 157
• Price-to-rent: 13.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,395 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,071
• Tax from tax record: −$95 /mo · $1,145/yr
• Insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$503
• Net cashflow: $-439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,951

Max offer price $317,429

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-216	-5% $-327	+0% $-439	+5% $-551	+10% $-663
Rent	-10% $-628	-5% $-534	+0% $-439	+5% $-344	+10% $-250
Rate	-1.0pp $-240	-0.5pp $-339	base $-439	+0.5pp $-541	+1.0pp $-646

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $98,750
• Closing costs: $11,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $395,000 Active 42 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $395,000 Active 41 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $395,000 Active 40 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $395,000 Active 39 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $395,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $395,000 Active 36 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $395,000 Active 35 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $395,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $395,000 Active 31 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 30 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $395,000 Active 29 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $395,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $395,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $395,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 23 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $395,000 Active 22 DOM
17. 2026-05-08
    listed $395,000 Active 731-char remark
18. 2025-06-02
    price $399,000
19. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus $312,500 Closed

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    This great home sits in a well established neighborhood and close to many amenities. There is plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 primary bedrooms with en suites. Property is zoned both residential and commercial, which offers many opportunities if you had an in home business. There is a large office/den or family room. This room could even be used as a 5th bedroom if needed. Separate laundry area with door to backyard. Newer flooring in most areas and newer counter tops. The fenced yard is perfect to keep the kids or your pets in. Utility shed for extra storage. This home is offered at an amazing price. Call today for more details.

20. 2024-09-10
    soldstatus $312,500

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    This great home sits in a well established neighborhood and close to many amenities. There is plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 primary bedrooms with en suites. Property is zoned both residential and commercial, which offers many opportunities if you had an in home business. There is a large office/den or family room. This room could even be used as a 5th bedroom if needed. Separate laundry area with door to backyard. Newer flooring in most areas and newer counter tops. The fenced yard is perfect to keep the kids or your pets in. Utility shed for extra storage. This home is offered at an amazing price. Call today for more details.

21. 2024-08-09
    status Pending

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    This great home sits in a well established neighborhood and close to many amenities. There is plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 primary bedrooms with en suites. Property is zoned both residential and commercial, which offers many opportunities if you had an in home business. There is a large office/den or family room. This room could even be used as a 5th bedroom if needed. Separate laundry area with door to backyard. Newer flooring in most areas and newer counter tops. The fenced yard is perfect to keep the kids or your pets in. Utility shed for extra storage. This home is offered at an amazing price. Call today for more details.

22. 2024-07-04
    listed $329,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    This great home sits in a well established neighborhood and close to many amenities. There is plenty of room with 4 bedrooms, 2 primary bedrooms with en suites. Property is zoned both residential and commercial, which offers many opportunities if you had an in home business. There is a large office/den or family room. This room could even be used as a 5th bedroom if needed. Separate laundry area with door to backyard. Newer flooring in most areas and newer counter tops. The fenced yard is perfect to keep the kids or your pets in. Utility shed for extra storage. This home is offered at an amazing price. Call today for more details.

23. 2024-04-20
    price $359,000
24. 2024-04-10
    price $363,000
25. 2022-08-23
    historical
26. 2022-06-01
    price $369,000
27. 2022-05-31
    price $369,000
28. 2022-04-24
    price $399,999
29. 2022-04-19
    price $409,000
30. 2022-04-19
    price $409,000
31. 2022-04-08
    listed $415,000 Active
32. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $164,500
33. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $164,500
34. 2018-07-18
    soldstatus $165,000
35. 2018-05-02
    listed $169,900
36. 2013-02-28
    soldstatus $100,000
37. 2012-09-07
    historical
38. 2012-04-28
    listed $139,900
39. 2012-03-04
    historical
40. 2011-10-26
    historical
41. 2010-10-28
    listed $139,000
42. 2009-09-17
    listed $109,000
43. 2005-08-30
    soldstatus $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,145 · $95/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,607 · $217/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,462/yr (+$122/mo · 127.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone D · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,745
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,126
• − Property taxes: −$1,145
• − Insurance: −$1,975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,300
• − Management: −$2,300
• − Depreciation: −$11,491
• Taxable loss: −$12,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,022
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Heber-Overgaard Unified District (4392)
• NCES district ID: 0400026
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,916
• Composite: 40.42/100
• National rank: #3727
• State rank: #51 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Heber-Overgaard

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Heber-Overgaard, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 376

Population outlook (Navajo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,760 people
• By 2030: 103,301 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 97,070 · -8.2%
• By 2050: 88,850 · -16.0%
• By 2075: 65,180 · -38.4%
• By 2100: 37,281 · -64.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 6% Slovak 6% Lithuanian 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Navajo

• 2024 margin: R (+17.2) · D 40.9% · R 58.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.5pp toward R · 2008: -11.7pp · 2024: -17.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.2 2020: R+8.2 2016: R+7.9 2012: R+8.4 2008: R+11.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.86%
• Current HPI: 443.6984
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+315.8% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Listed $395,000 ARMLS
• 2025-06-02 Price Changed $399,000 WMMLS
• 2024-09-10 Sold (Public Records) $312,500 Public Records
• 2024-09-10 Sold (MLS) $312,500 WMMLS
• 2024-08-09 Pending — WMMLS
• 2024-07-04 Listed $329,900 WMMLS
• 2024-04-20 Price Changed $359,000 WMMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $363,000 WMMLS
• 2022-08-23 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2022-06-01 Price Changed $369,000 ARMLS
• 2022-05-31 Price Changed $369,000 WMMLS
• 2022-04-24 Price Changed $399,999 WMMLS
• 2022-04-19 Price Changed $409,000 ARMLS
• 2022-04-19 Price Changed $409,000 WMMLS
• 2022-04-08 Listed $415,000 ARMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $164,500 WMMLS
• 2018-07-18 Sold (MLS) $164,500 ARMLS
• 2018-05-02 Listed $169,900 ARMLS
• 2013-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2012-09-07 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2012-04-28 Listed $139,900 ARMLS
• 2012-03-04 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2011-10-26 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2010-10-28 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2009-09-17 Listed $109,000 ARMLS
• 2005-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,145 · -14.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.