Ashville Plan · Bradenton, FL 34222

$139,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · Manufactured · 216 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.3/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

55+ age qualified community. Discover the epitome of modern farmhouse living in this exquisite 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom Clayton home. Step inside to find a captivating blend of charm and contemporary design, highlighted by delightful farmhouse features such as a farmhouse sink and range hood, accompanied by a stunning blue backsplash in the kitchen. Tray ceilings adorn the living space and primary bedroom, adding an air of sophistication, while ceiling fans throughout ensure comfort and circulation. The thoughtful layout boasts an open concept floor plan, seamlessly merging living, dining, and kitchen areas, perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy the convenience of an ensuite

Key facts

• Blue backsplash
• Ensuite bath
• Carport

Tags

• FARMHOUSE SINK
• RANGE HOOD
• BLUE BACKSPLASH
• TRAY CEILINGS
• ENSUITE BATH
• CARPORT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 101 Amsterdam Ave, Ellenton FL 34222; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: Listed price $139,999

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan home; Listed as new construction (Plan: Ashville)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,352

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan home (Ashville plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $139,999 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $219,024.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.6% in Bradenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#101 in FL, #1,528 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime D, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($64k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 216 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $123,199 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 216 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.24%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,024
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
77 Spoonbill Ln	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (0%)	2mo	$140,000	$104	81
137 Osprey Cir	0.37mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,352 (0%)	3mo	$190,000	$141	75
51 Partridge Ave	0.34mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,318 (-2%)	1mo	$233,000	$177	74
99 Meadow Cir	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	4mo	$120,000	$85	72
159 Osprey Cir Unit na	0.38mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	4mo	$181,000	$140	67
158 Nightingale Cir	0.51mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,287 (-5%)	2mo	$185,000	$144	62
20 Wood Owl Ave	0.23mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (-13%)	4mo	$200,000	$170	59
3108 Terra Siesta Blvd	0.58mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-8%)	0mo	$125,000	$100	55
3449 71st Ave E	0.72mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (+4%)	1mo	$268,000	$191	54
3432 71st Ave E	0.68mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,296 (-4%)	4mo	$230,000	$177	53
3522 70th Ave E	0.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,266 (-6%)	4mo	$245,000	$194	47
3445 71st Ave E	0.71mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,485 (+10%)	4mo	$240,000	$162	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-18,416
• Equity at exit: $32,657

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $6,045
• Equity at exit: $18,937

Cash invested: $61,327 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 5.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,149
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $219,024

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,756
• Closing costs: $6,571
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
482 Outer Dr Unit NA Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	3d	1	0.50mi
2711 80th Ave E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,836	$1.84	3d	1	0.59mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$3,300	$3.46	1d	67	0.76mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,829	$2.46	3d	37	0.76mi
3119 61st Dr E Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1662	$2,550	$1.53	3d	1	0.79mi
3808 Sunset Dr Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1441	$1,699	$1.18	21d	1	0.94mi
3931 Day Bridge Pl Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$2,295	$1.84	3d	1	1.00mi
7711 Desoto Dr Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1356	$1,599	$1.18	14d	1	1.02mi
8314 Nancy Ln Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$1,895	$1.35	23d	1	1.05mi
3908 Lemonwood Dr N Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1400	$1,750	$1.25	23d	1	1.22mi
1143 Riverscape St Unit A Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$6,500	$3.72	14d	1	1.28mi
4212 Long Lake Way Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1000	$1,900	$1.90	23d	1	1.28mi
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$3,139	$3.07	3d	15	1.41mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,999 Active 216 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,999 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,999 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,999 Active 213 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,999 Active 210 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $139,999 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,999 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,999 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,999 Active 205 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,999 Active 201 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,999 Active 200 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,999 Active 199 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,999 Active 198 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 58% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,056
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,269
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − Depreciation: −$6,372
• Taxable loss: −$294
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$71
• After-tax cash flow: $3,281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bradenton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #101
• US rank: #1528

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 227,091
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B