212 Shepler St · Elmira, NY 14904

$139,995

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,256 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1966 10,374 sqft lot Est $139k · at est. · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.24 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1966

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Underground/garage access
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Vinyl siding
• Construction: Block foundation
• Exterior features: Dirt driveway; Corner lot; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Disposal; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Sunroom / Florida room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#832 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Elmira City School District (urban): math 23% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #580 of 590 in NY (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 104 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 91 units permitted in Chemung County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chemung County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,895 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.68%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,039
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
115 Willys St	0.15mi	3/1.0	1,206 (-4%)	3mo	$84,900	$70	84
834 Maple Ave	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,246 (-1%)	1mo	$135,000	$108	82
320 Soper St	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,270 (+1%)	6mo	$80,000	$63	70
418 Milton St	0.38mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-6%)	4mo	$155,000	$132	69
420 Schuyler Ave	0.37mi	3/1.0	1,152 (-8%)	2mo	$154,148	$134	67
750 S Main St	0.40mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,216 (-3%)	6mo	$72,000	$59	64
433 Schuyler Ave	0.43mi	3/1.0	1,156 (-8%)	5mo	$140,500	$122	62
213 Juanita St	0.52mi	3/1.0	1,320 (+5%)	6mo	$21,000	$16	62
567 Riverside Ave	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,210 (-4%)	1mo	$145,000	$120	61
523 Gaines St	0.58mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,163 (-7%)	2mo	$94,000	$81	54
310 Cottage Pl	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,178 (-6%)	6mo	$32,000	$27	51
541 Gaines St	0.64mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-10%)	4mo	$93,000	$82	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-8,762
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.26×
• Total profit: $10,374
• Equity at exit: $12,104

Cash invested: $39,199 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14904

• Home prices YoY: -9.6%
• Active inventory: 104
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,510 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$183 /mo · $2,191/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$317
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,234

Max offer price $139,995

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $297	-5% $258	+0% $218	+5% $179	+10% $139
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $159	+0% $218	+5% $278	+10% $337
Rate	-1.0pp $289	-0.5pp $254	base $218	+0.5pp $182	+1.0pp $145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,999
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Boardman St Unit B Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1727	$800	$0.46	45d	1	0.69mi
419 Jefferson St Unit A Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,995	$1.81	45d	1	0.89mi
1254 Charles St Elmira, NY	2.0	1.0	1560	$1,350	$0.87	45d	1	1.02mi
363 W Water St #2 Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1084	$1,250	$1.15	45d	1	1.29mi
550 Spruce St Unit 303 Elmira, NY	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	45d	1	1.38mi
106 W 2nd St Unit A Elmira, NY	3.0	1.0	1395	$1,400	$1.00	45d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,995 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,995 Active 18 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,995 Active 17 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,995 Active 16 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,995 Active 15 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,995 Active 14 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $139,995 Active 12 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,995 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,995 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,995 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,995 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $139,995 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $139,995 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $139,995 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,191 · $183/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,278 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: +$88/yr (+$7/mo · 4.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 54% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,125
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,191
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,450
• − Management: −$1,450
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $420
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$101
• After-tax cash flow: $2,517/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Elmira City School District
• NCES district ID: 3610560
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $40,180
• Composite: 24.39/100
• National rank: #7688
• State rank: #580 of 590 in NY

Livability — Elmira

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #832
• US rank: #16139

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Elmira, NY
• City population: 14,276
• Population (ZIP): 14,276

Population outlook (Chemung County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 82,931 people
• By 2030: 80,356 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 74,745 · -9.9%
• By 2050: 69,012 · -16.8%
• By 2075: 55,689 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 41,428 · -50.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Black 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chemung

• 2024 margin: R (+16.8) · D 41.6% · R 58.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.6pp toward R · 2008: -1.2pp · 2024: -16.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.8 2020: R+13.4 2016: R+20.0 2012: R+2.9 2008: R+1.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -23.33%
• Current HPI: 220.688
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $139,995 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+12.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,191 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.