9690 W Sky Blue Dr · Tucson Estates, AZ 85735

$145,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured · 99 Days on market

Built 1972 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.3/30.0
• DSCR +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Peaceful desert setting. One flat acre with 2 bedroom, 1&1/2 bath home. All new paint, flooring, kitchen cabinetry & sink, evaporative cooler, and new toilets. Updated electric. Two large awnings were converted into living space, not assessed in county records. Shed has hookup and washing machine. Beautiful mountain, sunrise, and sunset views. Fully fenced on three sides with wash bordering unfenced north edge of property. Gated entry with circular driveway. Space for many uses. Clean and move in ready!

Key facts

• New toilets
• New flooring
• New paint

Tags

• FLAT ACRE
• NEW PAINT
• NEW FLOORING
• NEW KITCHEN CABINETRY
• NEW SINK
• NEW TOILETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $327 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.0% vs local median 4.4% in Tucson Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#137 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, schools F, amenities F.
• Marana Unified District (4404) (suburban): math 31% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #83 of 249 in AZ (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 83 active listings in the ZIP; 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 99 days — a 9% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $145k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,950 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 99 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.68%
• DSCR: 1.43
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-2,696
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $24,286
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85735

• Home prices YoY: -16.4%
• Active inventory: 83
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,524 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $672/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$320
• Net cashflow: $327

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,110

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $145,000 Active 99 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $145,000 Active 98 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $145,000 Active 97 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $145,000 Active 96 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 94 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $145,000 Active 93 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $145,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $145,000 Active 90 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $145,000 Active 89 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $145,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $145,000 Active 85 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $145,000 Active 84 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $145,000 Active 83 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $145,000 Active 82 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $145,000 Active 81 DOM
16. 2026-05-08
    price $145,000 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Peaceful desert setting. One flat acre with 2 bedroom, 1&1/2 bath home. All new paint, flooring, kitchen cabinetry & sink, evaporative cooler, and new toilets. Updated electric. Two large awnings were converted into living space, not assessed in county records. Shed has hookup and washing machine. Beautiful mountain, sunrise, and sunset views. Fully fenced on three sides with wash bordering unfenced north edge of property. Gated entry with circular driveway. Space for many uses. Clean and move in ready!

17. 2026-03-11
    listed $150,000 Active 516-char remark

    Show marketing remark (516 chars)

    Peaceful desert setting. One flat acre with 2 bedroom, 1&1/2 bath home. All new paint, flooring, kitchen cabinetry & sink, evaporative cooler, and new toilets. Updated electric. Two large awnings were converted into living space, not assessed in county records. Shed has hookup and washing machine. Beautiful mountain, sunrise, and sunset views. Fully fenced on three sides with wash bordering unfenced north edge of property. Gated entry with circular driveway. Space for many uses. Clean and move in ready!

18. 2023-04-05
    status Pending 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice older mobile home. 12X60 Electric is updated. Has large awning that is converted into 2 extra rooms not assessed in county records. The lot is fenced except in the back of lot where there is a wash close to property line. Seller is licensed real estate broker in Arizona. Being sold in ''as is'' condition.

19. 2023-04-05
    status Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice older mobile home. 12X60 Electric is updated. Has large awning that is converted into 2 extra rooms not assessed in county records. The lot is fenced except in the back of lot where there is a wash close to property line. Seller is licensed real estate broker in Arizona. Being sold in ''as is'' condition.

20. 2023-04-05
    soldstatus $95,000 Closed 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice older mobile home. 12X60 Electric is updated. Has large awning that is converted into 2 extra rooms not assessed in county records. The lot is fenced except in the back of lot where there is a wash close to property line. Seller is licensed real estate broker in Arizona. Being sold in ''as is'' condition.

21. 2023-04-03
    soldstatus $95,000
22. 2023-03-22
    historical Active Contingent 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice older mobile home. 12X60 Electric is updated. Has large awning that is converted into 2 extra rooms not assessed in county records. The lot is fenced except in the back of lot where there is a wash close to property line. Seller is licensed real estate broker in Arizona. Being sold in ''as is'' condition.

23. 2023-03-18
    listed $95,000 Active 312-char remark

    Show marketing remark (312 chars)

    Nice older mobile home. 12X60 Electric is updated. Has large awning that is converted into 2 extra rooms not assessed in county records. The lot is fenced except in the back of lot where there is a wash close to property line. Seller is licensed real estate broker in Arizona. Being sold in ''as is'' condition.

24. 1991-05-16
    soldstatus $16,500
25. 1991-03-08
    soldstatus $14,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $672 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $957 · $80/mo
• Expected delta: +$285/yr (+$24/mo · 42.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,292
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$672
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,463
• − Management: −$1,463
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,628
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$391
• After-tax cash flow: $3,538/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marana Unified District (4404)
• NCES district ID: 0404630
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $65,282
• Composite: 30.96/100
• National rank: #6103
• State rank: #83 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson Estates

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #16650

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson Estates, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,893

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 50% White 41% Two or more races 19% Native American 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 47%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 25%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.03%
• Current HPI: 301.1413
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+900.0% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $145,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-03-11 Listed $150,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-05 Pending — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-05 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-05 Sold (MLS) $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 2023-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 2023-03-22 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2023-03-18 Listed $95,000 MLSSAZ
• 1991-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $16,500 Public Records
• 1991-03-08 Sold (Public Records) $14,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $672 · +5.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.