12020 Shine Ave · New Fairview, TX 76078

$300,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,364 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 40 Days on market

Built 2007 6,316 sqft lot $127/sqft · 6% above area Est $304k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.1/15.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

Key facts

• Luxury vinyl plank
• New paint
• Covered metal patio

Tags

• NEW PAINT
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK
• BLACK GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• COZY FIREPLACE
• GARDEN TUB
• COVERED METAL PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; 2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; No municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story
• Construction: Built in 2007; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor; Total of 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Electric cooling; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Cable TV available; One living area; One dining area; Room count: 2

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $20 ($241/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in New Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#901 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Northwest ISD (rural): math 48% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #120 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prairie View El (math 21% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,221 of 4,322 statewide, top 75%, 631 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 22% district-wide (32 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 50% district-wide (-26 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Northwest ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 44% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $32k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $30k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$52k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $265,623 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.29%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $303,778
• List price: $300,000
• Delta: -1.24%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11931 Arbor Lake Rd	0.06mi	4/2.5	2,322 (-2%)	4mo	$279,900	$121	89
12020 Shine Ave	0.00mi	4/2.0	2,543 (+8%)	0mo	$300,000	$118	83
12409 Arbor Lake Rd	0.37mi	4/2.5	2,390 (+1%)	12mo	$340,000	$142	69
12433 Worthington Ln	0.16mi	4/2.5	2,558 (+8%)	12mo	$325,000	$127	67
12350 Orloff Dr	0.18mi	4/2.5	2,558 (+8%)	12mo	$349,995	$137	66
12101 Shine Ave	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,264 (-4%)	23mo	$325,000	$144	65
12638 Carpenter Ln Unit 1a	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,264 (-4%)	2mo	$279,000	$123	64
11822 Bone Spring Dr	0.48mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,447 (+4%)	15mo	$477,000	$195	54
12613 Azure Heights Pl	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,226 (-6%)	12mo	$325,000	$146	54
12329 Arbor Lake Rd	0.33mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,204 (-7%)	19mo	$315,000	$143	50
11916 Forest Lawn Rd	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,022 (-14%)	18mo	$329,999	$163	43
12805 Carpenter Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,014 (-15%)	24mo	$299,900	$149	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.96×
• Total profit: $164,710
• Equity at exit: $270,264

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.76×
• Total profit: $484,124
• Equity at exit: $582,834

Cash invested: $84,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76078

• Home prices YoY: 6.5%
• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,656 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$380 /mo · $4,561/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$558
• Net cashflow: $20

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,631

Max offer price $300,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $105	+0% $20	+5% $-65	+10% $-150
Rent	-10% $-190	-5% $-85	+0% $20	+5% $125	+10% $230
Rate	-1.0pp $171	-0.5pp $96	base $20	+0.5pp $-58	+1.0pp $-137

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $75,000
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 16 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
12417 Worthington Ln Rhome, TX	5.0	3.5	2911	$3,000	$1.03	44d	1	0.09mi
12221 Big Rock Dr Rhome, TX	4.0	2.5	2558	$2,395	$0.94	25d	1	0.17mi
16000 Isles Dr , TX	4.0	3.0	2673	$2,500	$0.94	25d	1	0.96mi
1201 Viscount St Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,700	$1.39	13d	1	0.97mi
16721 Porterfield Ln Justin, TX	5.0	3.0	2770	$2,800	$1.01	44d	1	1.04mi
1020 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2144	$2,325	$1.08	44d	1	1.06mi
16729 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1836	$2,325	$1.27	3d	1	1.08mi
1017 Valerian Dr Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1734	$2,250	$1.30	3d	1	1.08mi
1049 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,195	$1.28	19d	1	1.12mi
1045 Knightly Ln Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2388	$2,500	$1.05	44d	1	1.13mi
16020 Rein Ave Haslet, TX	4.0	3.0	2358	$2,355	$1.00	13d	1	1.29mi
16029 Pemberly Way Haslet, TX	3.0	2.0	1721	$2,095	$1.22	13d	1	1.33mi
708 Basteen Ln Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1728	$2,300	$1.33	12d	1	1.34mi
16428 Milwaukee St Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	1738	$2,500	$1.44	44d	1	1.35mi
820 Forestdale Ct Haslet, TX	4.0	2.5	2766	$2,700	$0.98	44d	1	1.40mi
829 Loomis Trl Justin, TX	4.0	2.0	2091	$2,450	$1.17	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $300,000 Pending 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 31 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 30 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $300,000 Active Contingent 29 DOM
10. 2026-05-13
    historical Active Option Contract 1102-char remark
11. 2026-05-07
    price $300,000 1102-char remark
12. 2026-05-02
    listed $310,000 Active 1102-char remark
13. 2012-05-11
    soldstatus
14. 2012-05-10
    soldstatus Closed 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

15. 2012-04-09
    status Pending 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

16. 2012-03-22
    status Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

17. 2012-02-02
    status Pending 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

18. 2012-01-03
    listed $115,500 Active 421-char remark

    Show marketing remark (421 chars)

    Spacious 4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom with large living areas! Home features neutral colors throughout, large family room, large formal living and dining, large master bedroom, large utility room with shelving to double as a walk in pantry, island with custom tile counter top and a huge covered back patio with custom misting system and lighting. Home sold AS IS, HUD case#492-782805.May qualify for $100 dwnpymnt w FHA loan.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,561 · $380/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,490 · $458/mo
• Expected delta: +$929/yr (+$77/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 23% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,875
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,805
• − Property taxes: −$4,561
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,550
• − Management: −$2,550
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$4,818
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,156
• After-tax cash flow: $1,397/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northwest ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833180
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $85,315
• Composite: 46.15/100
• National rank: #2504
• State rank: #120 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Fairview

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #901
• US rank: #16172

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• City population: 10,200
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 10,828
• Household income: $99,866
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 10.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Hispanic / Latino 24% Two or more races 11% Native American 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 14% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.94%
• Current HPI: 325.22
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+159.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2026-06-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-05-13 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $300,000 NTREIS
• 2026-05-02 Listed $310,000 NTREIS
• 2012-05-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2012-05-10 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2012-04-09 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-03-22 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2012-02-02 Pending — NTREIS
• 2012-01-03 Listed $115,500 NTREIS

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,561 · -2.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.