3540 Ricardo Ave · Redding, CA 96002

$279,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,550 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 29 Days on market

Built 1959 7,840 sqft lot Est $360k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This home has a lower effective age than the actual age due to being renovated approximately 2 years ago due to fire damage. New roof, gutters, windows, evaporative cooling, carpet & vinyl flooring. New interior and exterior paint. 3 bedroom 1.5 bath. Living room, dining room, family room. Inside laundry. Large fenced backyard.

Key facts

• New carpet
• New gutters
• Evaporative cooling

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• NEW GUTTERS
• NEW WINDOWS
• EVAPORATIVE COOLING
• NEW CARPET
• NEW VINYL FLOORING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($9/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $215k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Shasta Union High (urban): math 41% / reading 67% proficiency, ranked #122 of 517 in CA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($73k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $214,886 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.01%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,600
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3540 Ricardo Ave	0.00mi	3/1.5	1,550 (0%)	1mo	$286,800	$185	100
737 Estate St	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,594 (+3%)	2mo	$288,000	$181	82
3591 Adams Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,584 (+2%)	6mo	$369,900	$234	82
3348 School St	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,440 (-7%)	5mo	$304,900	$212	70
952 Camino Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-12%)	3mo	$361,000	$263	66
855 Jefferson Ct	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,378 (-11%)	6mo	$320,000	$232	64
1150 Bond St	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,490 (-4%)	2mo	$135,000	$91	61
3710 Indio Way	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,508 (-3%)	6mo	$356,000	$236	60
3896 Cambria Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+2%)	5mo	$365,000	$230	58
1153 Ruthie Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,371 (-12%)	6mo	$345,000	$252	54
609 Dee Ct	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,357 (-12%)	6mo	$343,250	$253	48
1201 Echo Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,323 (-15%)	7mo	$303,700	$230	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-47,748
• Equity at exit: $41,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-51,576
• Equity at exit: $24,166

Cash invested: $78,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,149 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,466
• Tax from tax record: −$115 /mo · $1,376/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,148

Max offer price $279,500

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $159	-5% $80	+0% $1	+5% $-78	+10% $-157
Rent	-10% $-169	-5% $-84	+0% $1	+5% $86	+10% $171
Rate	-1.0pp $142	-0.5pp $72	base $1	+0.5pp $-72	+1.0pp $-145

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,875
• Closing costs: $8,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3773 Ricardo Ave Redding, CA	3.0	3.0	1404	$1,995	$1.42	13d	1	0.34mi
1390 Empress Ln Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	2140	$2,700	$1.26	13d	1	0.69mi
3996 Morningsun Dr Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1384	$1,975	$1.43	13d	1	0.95mi
1933 Wheeler St Redding, CA	3.0	2.0	1242	$2,000	$1.61	13d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-30
   listed $279,500 Active
3. 2026-01-16
   price $279,500
4. 2025-09-17
   price $299,500
5. 2025-08-23
   listed $310,000 Active
6. 2025-03-05
   listed $315,000 Active
7. 2024-07-22
   historical $1,800
8. 2024-05-04
   listed $1,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,376 · $115/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,124 · $177/mo
• Expected delta: +$749/yr (+$62/mo · 54.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 37 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,786
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,656
• − Property taxes: −$1,376
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,063
• − Management: −$2,063
• − Depreciation: −$8,131
• Taxable loss: −$4,900
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,176
• After-tax cash flow: $1,185/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shasta Union High
• NCES district ID: 0636600
• Math proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 67% ▲ 9.00%
• Median HH income: $50,080
• Composite: 46.01/100
• National rank: #2532
• State rank: #122 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Redding, CA
• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+15427.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — SAOR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $279,500 SAOR
• 2026-01-16 Price Changed $279,500 SAOR
• 2025-09-17 Price Changed $299,500 SAOR
• 2025-08-23 Listed $310,000 SAOR
• 2025-03-05 Listed $315,000 SAOR
• 2024-07-22 Rental Removed $1,800 APPFOLIO
• 2024-05-04 Listed for Rent $1,800 APPFOLIO

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,376 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.