61 Bird Rd · Fort Covington, NY 12926

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1996 4.94 ac lot Est $140k · 7% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• Appreciation +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +4.2/15.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

This large 3-Bedroom 2-Bath manufactured is in excellent condition sits on 4.94 Surveyed lot with large 2-car Garage. Home has large eat in Kitchen with new Gas Stove and Dishwasher-Family room-Dinning Room and Living Room. Large covered front Porch-Has a wood burning fireplace and a Monitor heater for the Spring and fall Months as well as a newer forced air Furnace that can be converted to Propane.

Key facts

• Large eat in kitchen
• 4.94 acre lot
• Garage

Tags

• LARGE EAT IN KITCHEN
• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• NEWER FORCED AIR FURNACE
• LARGE COVERED FRONT PORCH

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property includes view; Pets allowed; Crops included

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; On-street parking available; Garage that faces the side with workshop space; Gravel/unpaved parking areas; Storage in garage
• Security: Smoke detectors; Carbon monoxide detectors
• Utilities: Private well water; Public sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Manufactured house (double wide); Updated/remodeled condition; One story
• Construction: Block and vinyl siding construction; Asphalt and metal roof; Block and slab foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Covered front porch; Exterior lighting; On-site storage; Workshop; Residence with additional storage/workshop structures; Wooded lot with many trees; Back yard and front yard; Cleared, level areas

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in gas oven; Propane cooktop; Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Freezer; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Forced air; Kerosene heating; Wood heating; Fireplace; Ceiling fans; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Open floor plan; Storage; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Double-pane windows; Stone fireplace in family room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry on the main level; Generator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $129k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $111k (25.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $111k (25.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Salmon River Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #545 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Salmon River Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,646 of 2,108 statewide, top 80%, 317 students, 71% FRL); Salmon River Middle School (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #678 of 729 statewide, top 94%, 313 students, 77% FRL); Salmon River High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #374 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 396 students, 69% FRL).
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 124 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.4% local appreciation)).
• Franklin County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $130k; 15% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $111,261 (25.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.42%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $139,552
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
61 Bird Road Rd	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (0%)	21mo	$130,000	$83	77
50 Sand St St	0.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,512 (-4%)	13mo	$135,000	$89	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.16×
• Total profit: $48,567
• Equity at exit: $107,960

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $146,561
• Equity at exit: $208,884

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12926

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,113 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$150 /mo · $1,799/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$234
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,264

Max offer price $128,794

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-35	-5% $-77	+0% $-119	+5% $-162	+10% $-204
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-163	+0% $-119	+5% $-76	+10% $-32
Rate	-1.0pp $-44	-0.5pp $-81	base $-119	+0.5pp $-158	+1.0pp $-198

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $149,900 Pending 58 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 53 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,900 Active 50 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,900 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 45 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 43 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $149,900 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 38 DOM
16. 2026-05-12
    price $149,900 402-char remark
17. 2026-04-23
    price $159,900 402-char remark
18. 2026-04-23
    listed $159 Active 402-char remark
19. 2024-09-19
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,799 · $150/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,166 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$367/yr (+$31/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,351
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,799
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,068
• − Management: −$1,068
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable loss: −$4,090
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$982
• After-tax cash flow: $-452/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Salmon River Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625500
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 7.00%
• Median HH income: $39,710
• Composite: 32.24/100
• National rank: #5770
• State rank: #545 of 590 in NY

Livability — Fort Covington

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,340
• Population (ZIP): 2,493

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,098 people
• By 2030: 46,790 · -2.7%
• By 2040: 44,400 · -7.7%
• By 2050: 41,256 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 32,190 · -33.1%
• By 2100: 23,407 · -51.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 2% Native American 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 19% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.0) · D 45.5% · R 54.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.2pp toward R · 2008: 22.2pp · 2024: -9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.0 2020: R+2.2 2016: R+7.4 2012: D+26.3 2008: D+22.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.41%
• Current HPI: 290.7423
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+15.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $149,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $159,900 ACVMLS
• 2026-04-23 Listed $159 ACVMLS
• 2024-09-19 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,799 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.