3975 Routes 5 & 20 Canandaigua Site #15 · Canandaigua, NY 14424

$61,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 640 sqft · Manufactured · 349 Days on market

Built 2025 Fair condition ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Modern 1-Bedroom Home on a Prime Corner Site! STACK THE SAVINGS! Look at that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount!

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 349 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $482 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $54k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.6% vs local median 3.4% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Canandaigua City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #305 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.5%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $428 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 349 days — a 12% lower offer ($54k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $54,472 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 349 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.40%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $12,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
405 Mountain Ash	0.62mi	1/1.0	658 (+3%)	16mo	$13,000	$20	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.55×
• Total profit: $26,804
• Equity at exit: $9,229

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.23×
• Total profit: $90,693
• Equity at exit: $5,352

Cash invested: $17,332 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14424

• Home prices YoY: -21.2%
• Rents YoY: 8.5%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,152 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$325
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$77 /mo · $928/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$242
• Net cashflow: $482

Break-even live

Break-even rent $541

Max offer price $61,900

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $525	-5% $504	+0% $482	+5% $461	+10% $440
Rent	-10% $391	-5% $437	+0% $482	+5% $528	+10% $573
Rate	-1.0pp $514	-0.5pp $498	base $482	+0.5pp $466	+1.0pp $450

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,475
• Closing costs: $1,857
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4350 Lakeshore Dr Unit 100 Canandaigua, NY	—	1.0	350	$1,100	$3.14	3d	1	1.32mi
3230 Moran Rd Canandaigua, NY	1.0	1.0	350	$1,000	$2.86	11d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $61,900 Active 349 DOM
2. 2026-06-10
   days on market $61,900 Active 347 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,900 Active 346 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $61,900 Active 345 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $61,900 Active 344 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $61,900 Active 340 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $61,900 Active 339 DOM
8. 2026-06-01
   days on market $61,900 Active 338 DOM
9. 2026-05-31
   days on market $61,900 Active 337 DOM
10. 2026-03-27
    price $61,900 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Modern 1-Bedroom Home on a Prime Corner Site! STACK THE SAVINGS! Look at that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount!

11. 2025-06-28
    listed $71,900 Active 172-char remark

    Show marketing remark (172 chars)

    Modern 1-Bedroom Home on a Prime Corner Site! STACK THE SAVINGS! Look at that new price! PLUS we will take up to $5,000 MORE off the home to match your down payment amount!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,826
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,467
• − Property taxes: −$928
• − Insurance: −$310
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,106
• − Management: −$1,106
• − Depreciation: −$1,801
• Taxable income: $5,108
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,226
• After-tax cash flow: $4,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 0 photos

Fair 40/100 Cosmetic rehab

This manufactured home requires cosmetic updates to the kitchen and bathroom, along with painting and exterior repairs. Upgrading these areas will significantly enhance its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major kitchen countertops — The countertops are worn and need replacement.
• Major bathroom fixtures — The fixtures are outdated and need replacement.
• Major exterior siding — The siding is peeling and needs repainting or replacement.
• Major interior walls — The walls have discoloration and peeling paint, requiring repainting.
• Moderate HVAC unit — The unit appears old and may need maintenance or replacement.

Value-add opportunities

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — Updating the kitchen and bathroom will improve both resale and rental value.
• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both repair/replace exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint and new siding will significantly improve the home's curb appeal.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen countertops · The countertops are worn and need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · The fixtures are outdated and need replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · The siding is peeling and needs repainting or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls · The walls have discoloration and peeling paint, requiring repainting.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC unit · The unit appears old and may need maintenance or replacement.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$63,000–215,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both update kitchen and bathroom — Updating the kitchen and bathroom will improve both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Fresh paint will improve the home's curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both repair/replace exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint and new siding will significantly improve the home's curb appeal. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canandaigua City School District
• NCES district ID: 3606330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,375
• Composite: 47.09/100
• National rank: #2335
• State rank: #305 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 28,786
• Household income: $79,778
• Rent vs Own: 34.8% rent · 65.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 737.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.94%
• Current HPI: 263.755
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.46%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-13.9% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $61,900 Zillow
• 2025-06-28 Listed $71,900 Zillow