1801 Coe Rd · Pinehurst, TX 77362

$279,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,549 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 15 Days on market

Built 2004 1.29 ac lot $181/sqft · 14% below area Est $324k · 14% under $17/mo HOA · 1% of rent ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• Cash flow +8.0/30.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Kipling Oaks! This neighborhood includes a Private park, lake and firepit to enjoy with your neighbors! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is nestled among trees on a lovely corner lot comprised of 1.29 acres! It also has a living dining combo! Get your creative juices flowing! She's solid as a rock! This home needs YOU to make it your own!

Key facts

• Firepit
• Lake
• 1.29 acres

Tags

• PRIVATE PARK
• LAKE
• FIREPIT
• CORNER LOT
• 1.29 ACRES

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Kipling Oaks HOA with a $200 annual fee covering recreation facilities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential property; 1,549 living area
• Construction: Brick construction; Built in 2004; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Corner lot in a subdivision; Asphalt road access; Has additional parcels

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living areas)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-291 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $229k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (20.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (20.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 2.0% in Pinehurst — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,350 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Decker Prairie El (math 29% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 40% FRL); Tomball Int (math 55% / reading 45%, grade C, #347 of 1,662 statewide, top 21%, 988 students, 46% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 51% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tomball ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 172 active listings in the ZIP; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $221,869 (20.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.45%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $324,026
• List price: $279,900
• Delta: -13.62%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2227 Dellwood Bay Ln	0.26mi	3/2.5	1,558 (+1%)	1mo	$330,000	$212	84
35472 Woodtrace Cir	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-4%)	1mo	$315,000	$212	81
1413 Northwood Bluff Ln	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,510 (-2%)	7mo	$317,500	$210	71
2210 Lucretia St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,719 (+11%)	2mo	$315,000	$183	70
2215 Dellwood Bay Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,484 (-4%)	15mo	$314,900	$212	67
2010 Coe Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,776 (+15%)	12mo	$329,000	$185	60
34611 Jimmy Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,746 (+13%)	12mo	$379,000	$217	56
1219 Coe Rd	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+10%)	6mo	$399,900	$235	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-63,776
• Equity at exit: $41,734

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-78,974
• Equity at exit: $24,201

Cash invested: $78,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77362

• Home prices YoY: -29.1%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,219 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$442 /mo · $5,305/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$17
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-291

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,587

Max offer price $228,531

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-132	-5% $-212	+0% $-291	+5% $-370	+10% $-449
Rent	-10% $-466	-5% $-378	+0% $-291	+5% $-203	+10% $-116
Rate	-1.0pp $-150	-0.5pp $-220	base $-291	+0.5pp $-363	+1.0pp $-437

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,975
• Closing costs: $8,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $17 · $204/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $279,900 Active 15 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $279,900 Active 12 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $279,900 Active 11 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $279,900 Active 10 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $279,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $279,900 Active 6 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $279,900 Active 3 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $279,900 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on marketlisting id $279,900 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $279,900 Active 174 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $279,900 Active 173 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $279,900 Active 172 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $279,900 Active 171 DOM
15. 2026-04-25
    price $279,900 349-char remark
16. 2026-02-10
    price $289,900 349-char remark
17. 2025-12-08
    listed $299,900 Active 349-char remark
18. 2003-10-15
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,305 · $442/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,624
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,679
• − Property taxes: −$5,305
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,130
• − Management: −$2,130
• − HOA: −$204
• − Depreciation: −$8,143
• Taxable loss: −$8,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,008
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Pinehurst

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1350
• US rank: #23272

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment C- Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pinehurst, TX
• Population (ZIP): 7,474

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.65%
• Current HPI: 284.6412
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-06-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-04-25 Price Changed $279,900 HARMLS
• 2026-02-10 Price Changed $289,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-08 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+12.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,305 · +9.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.