Stafford Plan · Hinesville, GA 31313

$252,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,565 sqft · SingleFamily · 298 Days on market

Poor condition $30/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This Stafford home, situated in the serene countryside of Tibet Road in Sassafras, exudes charm with its attractive BRICK FRONT and vinyl accents. It provides ample storage and adaptability, catering to families of all sizes. The open-concept design offers seamless views to the modern kitchen and breakfast area, perfect for hosting guests. The master suite boasts a spacious walk-in closet, along with a private bath featuring dual vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. Unwind in the large, beautiful backyard after a long day. Artistic renderings and illustrations are for reference only. Actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may differ.

Key facts

• Brick front
• Walk-in closet
• Private bath

Tags

• BRICK FRONT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• BREAKFAST AREA
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• PRIVATE BATH
• DUAL VANITY

🏗️ New construction. The $252,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $279,789.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $253k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-297 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $237k (6.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (16.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (16.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 612 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 42% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 298 days — a 12% lower offer ($223k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 97% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,016 (16.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 298 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
9. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.54%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $279,789
• List price: $252,900
• Delta: -9.61%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
232 Juniper Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0	1,565 (0%)	0mo	$271,350	$173	92
191 Juniper Dr	0.13mi	4/2.5	1,609 (+3%)	1mo	$283,825	$176	86
157 Juniper Dr	0.10mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,527 (-2%)	2mo	$268,925	$176	84
167 Juniper Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,735 (+11%)	0mo	$285,225	$164	76
158 Juniper Dr	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,455 (-7%)	1mo	$271,100	$186	76
177 Juniper Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-12%)	2mo	$262,300	$190	68
1238 Grayson Ave	0.42mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,462 (-7%)	2mo	$275,000	$188	61
1041 Grayson Ave	0.43mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (+8%)	2mo	$278,000	$164	58
215 Nobel Crst	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-3%)	1mo	$267,500	$176	58
872 Grayson Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,411 (-10%)	1mo	$250,000	$177	53
1308 Karen Ct	0.68mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,478 (-6%)	1mo	$265,000	$179	51
622 Piedmont Ave	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,363 (-13%)	2mo	$239,999	$176	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-58,934
• Equity at exit: $41,717

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,844
• Equity at exit: $24,191

Cash invested: $78,341 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 612
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,110 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,467
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,197/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $-297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,486

Max offer price $236,880

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,947
• Closing costs: $8,394
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1300 Independence Place Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–4.0	1.0–4.0	862	$1,830	$2.12	43d	23	0.46mi
264 Marron Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1997	$2,200	$1.10	43d	1	0.53mi
1110 Creekside Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1356	$2,000	$1.47	43d	1	0.59mi
600 Brightleaf Cir Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1603	$2,300	$1.43	43d	1	0.73mi
511 Wyckfield Way Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	2070	$2,475	$1.20	43d	1	0.86mi
501 Burke Dr Hinesville, GA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1132	$1,891	$1.67	43d	18	0.87mi
203 Guyett Ave Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1593	$2,000	$1.26	43d	1	0.98mi
403 Valdez Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.5	1810	$2,000	$1.10	43d	1	1.06mi
908 Ringneck Way Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1526	$1,750	$1.15	44d	1	1.17mi
717 Mill Creek Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1776	$2,200	$1.24	43d	1	1.20mi
712 Mill Creek Cir Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,900	$1.30	43d	1	1.22mi
34 Wythe St Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1978	$2,200	$1.11	43d	1	1.23mi
924 Sanford Ln Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.5	1801	$1,995	$1.11	43d	1	1.24mi
410 Conley Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	3.0	1742	$2,000	$1.15	43d	1	1.24mi
960 Gulfstream Rd Hinesville, GA	4.0	2.0	1515	$2,150	$1.42	43d	1	1.29mi
916 Mandarin Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1433	$1,550	$1.08	43d	1	1.30mi
905 King Air Ct Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1407	$1,750	$1.24	43d	1	1.34mi
710 Little John Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1459	$1,700	$1.17	43d	1	1.45mi
722 Robin Hood Dr Hinesville, GA	3.0	2.0	1668	$1,500	$0.90	43d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $252,900 Active 298 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $252,900 Active 297 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $252,900 Active 296 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $252,900 Active 295 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $252,900 Active 294 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $252,900 Active 292 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $252,900 Active 291 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $252,900 Active 289 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $252,900 Active 288 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $252,900 Active 287 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $252,900 Active 286 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $252,900 Active 283 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $252,900 Active 282 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $252,900 Active 281 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $252,900 Active 280 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $252,900 Active 279 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $252,900 Active 278 DOM
18. 2025-08-25
    listed $252,900 Active 651-char remark

    Show marketing remark (651 chars)

    This Stafford home, situated in the serene countryside of Tibet Road in Sassafras, exudes charm with its attractive BRICK FRONT and vinyl accents. It provides ample storage and adaptability, catering to families of all sizes. The open-concept design offers seamless views to the modern kitchen and breakfast area, perfect for hosting guests. The master suite boasts a spacious walk-in closet, along with a private bath featuring dual vanity, garden tub, and separate shower. Unwind in the large, beautiful backyard after a long day. Artistic renderings and illustrations are for reference only. Actual floor plans, features, and inclusions may differ.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥111°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 97% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,322
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,673
• − Property taxes: −$4,197
• − Insurance: −$1,399
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,026
• − Management: −$2,026
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$8,139
• Taxable loss: −$8,497
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,039
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,519/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This Stafford home in Sassafras, GA, requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to bring the property up to a good condition and increase its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Signs of water damage and possible leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and visible damage.
• Major landscaping — Overgrown and unkempt appearance.
• Major interior walls and paint — No photos of interior condition, but exterior suggests similar state.
• Major systems — No photos of systems, but overall condition suggests need for repair or replacement.
• Major flooring — No photos of flooring, but exterior condition suggests similar state. Likely worn and in need of replacement or repair.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint would improve the home's curb appeal and value.
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard would enhance both resale and rental value.
• Resale repair and replace flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale repair and replace interior walls and paint — Fresh walls and paint would significantly improve the home's appearance and value.
• Resale repair and replace systems — Up-to-date systems would improve the home's functionality and value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Signs of water damage and possible leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling paint and visible damage.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Overgrown and unkempt appearance.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls and paint · No photos of interior condition, but exterior suggests similar state.	Major	$15,000–50,000
systems · No photos of systems, but overall condition suggests need for repair or replacement.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · No photos of flooring, but exterior condition suggests similar state. Likely worn and in need of replacement or repair.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale repair and replace roof — A new roof would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale repair and paint exterior siding — A fresh coat of paint would improve the home's curb appeal and value. ↑
• Both landscaping and yard maintenance — A well-maintained yard would enhance both resale and rental value. ↑
• Resale repair and replace flooring — New flooring would improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale repair and replace interior walls and paint — Fresh walls and paint would significantly improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Resale repair and replace systems — Up-to-date systems would improve the home's functionality and value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,565 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1693.0

Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-08-25 Listed $252,900 Zillow