1451 Hepner St SE · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$259,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,646 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 2006 10,019 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2006

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,646; Lot size approximately 0.23 acres

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single Family Residence
• Construction: Stucco exterior
• Exterior features: Lot features: Other; South-facing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl; Other
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: 3 total rooms; Living Room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Unfurnished

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-90 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (6.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (14.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $222k (14.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Sunrise Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 759 students, 58% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Bayside High School (math 27% / reading 40%, grade F, #400 of 667 statewide, top 61%, 1,854 students, 51% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 55% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Brevard average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 24 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $28k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $26k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($251k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 21y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $222,041 (14.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.49%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $136,880
• Equity at exit: $233,328

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.67×
• Total profit: $410,889
• Equity at exit: $503,180

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,220 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$378 /mo · $4,539/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-90

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,335

Max offer price $243,047

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $56	-5% $-17	+0% $-90	+5% $-164	+10% $-237
Rent	-10% $-266	-5% $-178	+0% $-90	+5% $-3	+10% $85
Rate	-1.0pp $40	-0.5pp $-24	base $-90	+0.5pp $-157	+1.0pp $-226

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 24 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2877 Palisades Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1974	$2,150	$1.09	20d	1	0.35mi
1453 Santa Anna St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$2,500	$1.25	15d	1	0.49mi
1213 Waterford St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1695	$2,000	$1.18	24d	1	0.61mi
1496 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2187	$2,440	$1.12	15d	1	0.72mi
1198 Venus St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1535	$1,961	$1.28	22d	1	0.76mi
1783 Dittmer Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2207	$2,100	$0.95	24d	1	0.86mi
1063 Grantham Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	24d	1	0.90mi
1406 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,100	$1.01	24d	1	0.93mi
1416 Martinez St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1747	$2,000	$1.14	15d	1	0.93mi
1165 Rabbit St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1994	$1,895	$0.95	20d	1	1.10mi
2073 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,133	$1.17	24d	1	1.14mi
1454 Graves St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1621	$2,100	$1.30	15d	1	1.14mi
1843 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1822	$2,200	$1.21	24d	1	1.18mi
1884 Middlebury Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1761	$2,000	$1.14	24d	1	1.20mi
2183 Farmhouse Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,000	$1.19	24d	1	1.20mi
1660 Lizette St SE Unit 1 Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1736	$2,199	$1.27	24d	1	1.21mi
3636 Aberdeen Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	20d	1	1.23mi
1434 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	14d	1	1.24mi
1677 Lizette St SE Unit A Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2080	$1,900	$0.91	15d	1	1.24mi
1394 Garabaldi Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1876	$2,500	$1.33	20d	1	1.25mi
820 Tedder Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1808	$2,000	$1.11	24d	1	1.31mi
925 Dugan Cir SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,295	$1.25	14d	1	1.33mi
1566 Criswell Ln SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2046	$2,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.46mi
830 Painesville St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	2029	$2,220	$1.09	15d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 30 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $259,000 Active 38 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $259,000 Active 35 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,000 Active 33 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,000 Active 32 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $259,000 Active 29 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,000 Active 28 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,000 Active 27 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,000 Active 26 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 25 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,000 Active 24 DOM
15. 2026-05-06
    listed $259,000 Active
16. 2026-05-05
    price $259,000 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

17. 2025-04-11
    historical
18. 2025-02-20
    price $337,000 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

19. 2025-02-14
    status Pending 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

20. 2025-02-14
    historical 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

21. 2025-02-05
    listed $339,000 Active
22. 2025-02-04
    status Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

23. 2025-02-03
    historical 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

24. 2024-11-07
    price $339,000 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

25. 2024-10-18
    listed $349,000 Active 724-char remark

    Show marketing remark (724 chars)

    Your chance to own this charming 3-bed, 2-bath home with vaulted ceilings in a peaceful Palm Bay neighborhood has arrived!. Step into a beautifully renovated space with a NEW roof, NEW luxury plank flooring, NEW stainless steel appliances (dishwasher, stove, fridge), NEW washer and dryer, RENOVATED bathrooms and updated patio, plumbing and lighting. Serviced HVAC and water filtration systems mean everything is ready for you! Enjoy a bright living area, modern kitchen, sun-filled bedrooms, a spacious yard and a screened patio that are exceptional for relaxing and entertaining. Conveniently located near everything! All information provided is deemed reliable but is not guaranteed and should be independently verified.

26. 2024-07-02
    soldstatus $230,000
27. 2005-04-11
    soldstatus $36,300
28. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $36,250
29. 2005-01-28
    listed $39,900
30. 2004-08-06
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,539 · $378/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,539 · $378/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$4,539
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$5,495
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,319
• After-tax cash flow: $235/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1972.0% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $259,000 SCMLS
• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $259,000 SCMLS
• 2025-04-11 Listing Removed — MARMLS
• 2025-02-20 Price Changed $337,000 SCMLS
• 2025-02-14 Pending — SCMLS
• 2025-02-14 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2025-02-05 Listed $339,000 MARMLS
• 2025-02-04 Relisted — SCMLS
• 2025-02-03 Listing Removed — SCMLS
• 2024-11-07 Price Changed $339,000 SCMLS
• 2024-10-18 Listed $349,000 SCMLS
• 2024-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $230,000 Public Records
• 2005-04-11 Sold (Public Records) $36,300 Public Records
• 2005-04-04 Sold (MLS) $36,250 SCMLS
• 2005-01-28 Listed $39,900 SCMLS
• 2004-08-06 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,539 · +7.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.