13 Conner Rd · Rayville, LA 71269

$158,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,750 sqft · SingleFamily · 228 Days on market

$90/sqft · 81% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sitting on an acre of land just minutes from META. Enjoy the peace of country living with endless possibilities to make this place your own.

Key facts

• Garage
• Listed 227 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $158k).
• Recommended offer: $139k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#158 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Richland Parish (rural): math 12% / reading 22% proficiency, ranked #73 of 98 in LA (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 27 units permitted in Richland Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($139k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $139,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 19.81%
• DSCR: 1.88
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $87,376
• List price: $158,000
• Delta: 80.83%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $12,973
• Equity at exit: $23,558

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $61,035
• Equity at exit: $13,661

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71269

• Home prices YoY: -26.4%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$58 /mo · $701/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$447
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,365

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $695	-5% $650	+0% $605	+5% $561	+10% $516
Rent	-10% $437	-5% $521	+0% $605	+5% $689	+10% $774
Rate	-1.0pp $685	-0.5pp $645	base $605	+0.5pp $564	+1.0pp $523

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $158,000 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $158,000 Active 227 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $158,000 Active 226 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $158,000 Active 225 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $158,000 Active 224 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $158,000 Active 222 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $158,000 Active 221 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $158,000 Active 219 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $158,000 Active 218 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $158,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $158,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $158,000 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $158,000 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $158,000 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $158,000 Active 208 DOM
16. 2025-11-03
    listed $158,000 Active 174-char remark

    Show marketing remark (174 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home sitting on an acre of land just minutes from META. Enjoy the peace of country living with endless possibilities to make this place your own.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $701 · $58/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $869 · $72/mo
• Expected delta: +$168/yr (+$14/mo · 23.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone A · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$701
• − Insurance: −$2,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable income: $5,038
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,209
• After-tax cash flow: $6,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Richland Parish
• NCES district ID: 2201350
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -36.00%
• Reading proficiency: 22% ▼ -31.00%
• Median HH income: $36,097
• Composite: 14.06/100
• National rank: #9464
• State rank: #73 of 98 in LA

Livability — Rayville

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #158
• US rank: #13606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,475

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,283 people
• By 2030: 19,990 · -1.4%
• By 2040: 19,240 · -5.1%
• By 2050: 18,497 · -8.8%
• By 2075: 16,626 · -18.0%
• By 2100: 14,204 · -30.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Black 36% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.4) · D 29.7% · R 69.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.8pp toward R · 2008: -26.6pp · 2024: -39.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.4 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+32.6 2012: R+28.2 2008: R+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.82%
• Current HPI: 158.2193
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-11-03 Listed $158,000 NELABOR

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $701 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.