101 Hampton Pl · Heathsville, VA 22473

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,232 sqft · SingleFamily · 78 Days on market

Built 2007 1.04 ac lot $202/sqft · 15% below area Est $293k · 15% under $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +14.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bay Quarter Shores open design home with private primary suite, that includes double vanities, soaking tub and separate shower. Kitchen has ample counter space and storage cabinets. Notice the pass-through bar. Range, dishwasher, and refrigerator convey. Spacious living room with wood burning fireplace. 2 guest rooms share a full, hall bath. Laminate floors were installed about 7 years ago. Enjoy the sunning deck and storage shed. The crepe myrtles are beautiful! As a member of Bay Quarter Shores' hoa, you'll have access to the nicest pool, beach, pier, boat ramp, clubhouse, playground equipment, grounds, and walking trails!

Key facts

• Ample counter space
• Soaking tub
• Separate shower

Tags

• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• DOUBLE VANITIES
• SOAKING TUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• AMPLE COUNTER SPACE
• STORAGE CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $405 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $240k (3.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 1.5% in Heathsville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#510 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, schools A, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Northumberland County Public School District (rural): math 47% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #75 of 131 in VA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 243 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 78 days — a 6% lower offer ($234k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 74% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 78 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.24%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.97%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $293,010
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -15.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
190 Elmington Pl	0.31mi	3/1.0	1,100 (-11%)	3mo	$87,500	$80	61
124 Alabama Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+8%)	7mo	$425,000	$321	56
774 Wittstat Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,360 (+10%)	20mo	$445,000	$327	46
227 Carolina Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,404 (+14%)	11mo	$510,000	$363	37
1068 Cod Creek Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,335 (+8%)	23mo	$325,000	$243	35
15 Bay Quarter Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+15%)	19mo	$360,000	$254	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-14,662
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $20,016
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22473

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 243
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,400 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $702/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$504
• Net cashflow: $405

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,887

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $546	-5% $475	+0% $405	+5% $334	+10% $264
Rent	-10% $215	-5% $310	+0% $405	+5% $500	+10% $595
Rate	-1.0pp $530	-0.5pp $468	base $405	+0.5pp $340	+1.0pp $275

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
496 Bay Quarter Dr Heathsville, VA	3.0	1.5	1488	$2,400	$1.61	14d	1	0.97mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $249,000 Active 78 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $249,000 Active 76 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $249,000 Active 75 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $249,000 Active 74 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 73 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $249,000 Active 72 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $249,000 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $249,000 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $249,000 Active 67 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 66 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $249,000 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $249,000 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,000 Active 61 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,000 Active 60 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,000 Active 59 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,000 Active 58 DOM
17. 2026-04-03
    listed $249,000 Active 633-char remark

    Show marketing remark (633 chars)

    Bay Quarter Shores open design home with private primary suite, that includes double vanities, soaking tub and separate shower. Kitchen has ample counter space and storage cabinets. Notice the pass-through bar. Range, dishwasher, and refrigerator convey. Spacious living room with wood burning fireplace. 2 guest rooms share a full, hall bath. Laminate floors were installed about 7 years ago. Enjoy the sunning deck and storage shed. The crepe myrtles are beautiful! As a member of Bay Quarter Shores' hoa, you'll have access to the nicest pool, beach, pier, boat ramp, clubhouse, playground equipment, grounds, and walking trails!

18. 2023-11-06
    status Active
19. 2023-10-23
    soldstatus $249,000 Closed
20. 2023-10-16
    status Pending
21. 2023-09-17
    status Pending
22. 2023-09-17
    historical Active Under Contract
23. 2023-07-25
    listed $259,950 Active
24. 2023-07-24
    listed $259,950 Active
25. 2016-03-25
    soldstatus $55,125

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $702 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,340/yr (+$112/mo · 190.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 74% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$702
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,304
• − Management: −$2,304
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable income: $777
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$187
• After-tax cash flow: $4,673/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northumberland County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102730
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $52,524
• Composite: 47.93/100
• National rank: #2209
• State rank: #75 of 131 in VA

Livability — Heathsville

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #510
• US rank: #22811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 5,646

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,873 people
• By 2030: 11,609 · -2.2%
• By 2040: 10,938 · -7.9%
• By 2050: 10,235 · -13.8%
• By 2075: 8,922 · -24.9%
• By 2100: 7,288 · -38.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 30% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Vietnam, Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.2) · D 39.0% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -9.8pp · 2024: -21.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.2 2020: R+15.8 2016: R+27.6 2012: R+14.9 2008: R+9.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.89%
• Current HPI: 169.0605
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+351.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Listed $249,000 NNAR
• 2023-11-06 Relisted — NNAR
• 2023-10-23 Sold (MLS) $249,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-10-16 Pending — NNAR
• 2023-09-17 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-09-17 Contingent — NNAR
• 2023-07-25 Listed $259,950 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-07-24 Listed $259,950 NNAR
• 2016-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $55,125 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $702 · +12.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.