2865 E Burt Rd · Burt, MI 48417

$139,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1950

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the charm to this thoughtfully laid out 2 Bedroom home built in 1950. Offering 768 sq feet of living space designed for efficiency and cost effective monthly bills. This home is perfect for 1-2 people, appealing to new home owners or someone looking to down size. It is a perfect layout for 1 bedroom and a small office. Living Room is 14x12 Master Bedroom is 12.9x10.5 Bedroom 2/Office Space is 9x8 which leads to nice deck and fenced in backyard. One car garage offering additional storage/work space area. This home has many updates, including City Water, Home Generator, New Air Conditioner, Anderson Windows, Vinyl Siding, New Septic , Fenced in back yard with a beautiful deck area. I

Key facts

• Anderson windows
• New septic
• Home generator

Tags

• HOME GENERATOR
• NEW AIR CONDITIONER
• ANDERSON WINDOWS
• VINYL SIDING
• NEW SEPTIC
• FENCED IN BACK YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $369 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $138k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#403 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Birch Run Area Schools (rural): math 33% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #223 of 540 in MI (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: North Elementary School (math 29% / reading 41%, grade F, #735 of 1,397 statewide, top 53%, 667 students, 62% FRL); Marshall Greene Middle School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #215 of 493 statewide, top 45%, 548 students, 59% FRL); Birch Run High School (math 32% / reading 62%, grade D-, #187 of 713 statewide, top 29%, 573 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools average 57% FRL vs 39% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 154 units permitted in Saginaw County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $967 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saginaw County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $137,801 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.31%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $877
• Equity at exit: $20,860

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.80×
• Total profit: $31,155
• Equity at exit: $12,096

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48417

• Home prices YoY: -29.9%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,098/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,224

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $418	+0% $369	+5% $321	+10% $273
Rent	-10% $236	-5% $303	+0% $369	+5% $436	+10% $503
Rate	-1.0pp $440	-0.5pp $405	base $369	+0.5pp $333	+1.0pp $296

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $139,900 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $139,900 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 5 DOM
18. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 4 DOM
19. 2026-05-26
    listed $139,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,296
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$2,098
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,624
• − Management: −$1,624
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable income: $2,344
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$563
• After-tax cash flow: $3,869/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Birch Run Area Schools
• NCES district ID: 2605820
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,432
• Composite: 33.54/100
• National rank: #5430
• State rank: #223 of 540 in MI

Livability — Burt

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #403
• US rank: #10945

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Burt, MI
• Population (ZIP): 2,310

Population outlook (Saginaw County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 180,568 people
• By 2030: 172,302 · -4.6%
• By 2040: 153,919 · -14.8%
• By 2050: 135,519 · -24.9%
• By 2075: 97,199 · -46.2%
• By 2100: 65,037 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 9% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Saginaw

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 17.3pp · 2024: -3.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.3 2020: D+0.3 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+11.9 2008: D+17.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.25%
• Current HPI: 202.2839
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $139,900 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $257 · -70.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.