14448 Dalia Ave · Vero Beach South, FL 34951

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,720 sqft · SingleFamily · 293 Days on market

Built 2024

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.0/30.0
• DSCR +9.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spanish Lake Fairways is an Active 55+ Community offering all new CBS homes. We have over 10,000 residents living in our communities. ALL residents have use of all the amenities including golf, tennis, heated pools, a huge clubhouse, plus much more! Our objective is to provide homeowners with the highest quality concrete-block home, at the most affordable price, including a metal roof, stainless steel appliances, granite counter-tops & cherry wood cabinets. We offer unique in-house financing & no-prepayment penalties, no points, no application fee, no survey, no appraisal fee, no title insurance, no Private Mortgage Insurance, and no origination fee. ALL houses offered are brand

Key facts

• Cherry wood cabinets
• Metal roof
• Granite counter-tops

Tags

• METAL ROOF
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• GRANITE COUNTER-TOPS
• CHERRY WOOD CABINETS
• UNIQUE IN-HOUSE FINANCING

🏗️ New construction. The $289,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $196,080.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $547 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $275k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $241k (16.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $241k (16.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 4.3% in Vero Beach South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#163 in FL, #2,445 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities F.
• St. Lucie (urban): math 40% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #51 of 73 in FL (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 292 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,868 units permitted in St. Lucie County in 2024 (268 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,407/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($63k/yr) (locally 140% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Lucie County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $55k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 293 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $240,712 (16.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 293 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.95%
• DSCR: 1.53
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $196,080
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6449 Alemendra St	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,753 (+2%)	5mo	$309,000	$176	75
6539 Yedra Ave	0.17mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,839 (+7%)	2mo	$309,000	$168	72
14374 Azucena Court Ct	0.14mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,599 (-7%)	9mo	$175,000	$109	69
6631 Nuevo Lagos	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-0%)	21mo	$175,000	$102	64
6655 Alemendra St	0.49mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,530 (-11%)	2mo	$175,000	$114	52
14126 Cisne Cir	0.31mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	7mo	$150,000	$101	52
14434 Azucena Ct	0.11mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,487 (-14%)	24mo	$170,000	$114	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.06×
• Total profit: $3,074
• Equity at exit: $29,236

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.87×
• Total profit: $47,648
• Equity at exit: $16,953

Cash invested: $54,902 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34951

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 292
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,407 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,028
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$245 /mo · $2,941/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$505
• Net cashflow: $547

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,715

Max offer price $196,080

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,020
• Closing costs: $5,882
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6765 Spanish Lakes Blvd Fort Pierce, FL	2.0	2.0	1368	$2,500	$1.83	23d	1	0.45mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
2. 2025-08-28
   status Pending
3. 2024-11-07
   listed $289,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,885
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,984
• − Property taxes: −$2,941
• − Insurance: −$980
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,311
• − Management: −$2,311
• − Depreciation: −$5,704
• Taxable income: $3,654
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$877
• After-tax cash flow: $5,682/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Lucie
• NCES district ID: 1201770
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $44,737
• Composite: 37.28/100
• National rank: #4449
• State rank: #51 of 73 in FL

Livability — Vero Beach South

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #163
• US rank: #2445

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime A- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saint Lucie County · 337,150 people
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 17,148
• Household income: $63,122
• Rent vs Own: 11.7% rent · 88.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 140.0

Population outlook (St. Lucie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 338,016 people
• By 2030: 355,687 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 385,521 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 406,106 · +20.1%
• By 2075: 441,054 · +30.5%
• By 2100: 436,885 · +29.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 7% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Lucie

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.1) · D 45.1% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 12.1pp · 2024: -9.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.1 2020: R+1.6 2016: R+2.5 2012: D+7.9 2008: D+12.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -106.06%
• Current HPI: 343.1376
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-11 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2025-08-28 Pending — Beaches MLS
• 2024-11-07 Listed $289,000 Beaches MLS