11773 E Ground Cherry Ln · Scottsdale, AZ 85262

$1,641,995

3 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,655 sqft · Land · 135 Days on market

Built 2026 2.33 ac lot $449/sqft · 22% below area Est $2094k · 22% under $140/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Toll Brothers estate community in north Scottsdale. Off a beautiful courtyard, the foyer leads guests past a versatile flex room into an elegant great room that flows seamlessly into an impressive covered patio. Adjacent to a bright casual dining area, the well-appointed kitchen is complete with a walk-in pantry, a large island, and wraparound counters. At day's end, retreat to the primary bedroom, boasting a large walk-in closet and a tranquil bath featuring dual sinks, a serene soaking tub, a luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Two desirable secondary bedroom en-suites offer walk-in closets and private baths. Additional highlights include dedicated laundry spaces off the everyday entry with drop zone, a powder room, and extra storage throughout. Toll Brothers at HighPoint brings luxury living to a serene and sophisticated desert setting. Enjoy a network of trails within the community and a plethora of outdoor recreation nearby, including hiking, golf, and lake adventures, when you find your new luxury home in this desert paradise. Mountain and city light views in this premier gated community.

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Large island
• Wraparound counters

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• GREAT ROOM
• COVERED PATIO
• WALK-IN PANTRY
• LARGE ISLAND
• WRAPAROUND COUNTERS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.5-bath land listed at $1.64M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-8k ($-90k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $555k (66.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $504k (69.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $504k (69.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 0.8% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Cave Creek Unified District (4244) (urban): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #13 of 249 in AZ (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 8% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 588 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 83% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($178k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $49k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($1.44M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $503,588 (69.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 69% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.31% ✗
• Cap rate: 0.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -19.60%
• DSCR: 0.13
• GRM: 27.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,094,364
• List price: $1,641,995
• Delta: -21.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -56.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.62×
• Total profit: $-744,171
• Equity at exit: $244,827

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.75×
• Total profit: $-1,263,188
• Equity at exit: $141,970

Cash invested: $459,759 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85262

• Home prices YoY: -12.2%
• Active inventory: 588
• Price-to-rent: 27.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,036 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,611
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$2,052 /mo · $24,630/yr
• Insurance: −$684
• HOA: −$140
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,058
• Net cashflow: $-7,509

Break-even live

Break-even rent $14,541

Max offer price $555,415

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $410,499
• Closing costs: $49,260
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10989 E Taos Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.5	3157	$12,000	$3.80	44d	1	1.19mi
40057 N 107th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	4165	$15,000	$3.60	44d	1	1.27mi
10687 E Fernwood Ln Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3282	$10,000	$3.05	44d	1	1.39mi
11426 E Kendra Ln Cave Creek, AZ	2.0	2.5	3540	$10,000	$2.82	13d	1	1.40mi
39658 N 106th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3450	$15,000	$4.35	44d	1	1.40mi
39722 N 106th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	3.5	3400	$20,000	$5.88	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $140 · $1,680/yr
• Likely covers: watersecurity

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 126 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,641,995 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1,641,995 Active 121 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,641,995 Active 120 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,641,995 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,641,995 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,641,995 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-02-03
    listed $1,641,995 Active 1130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1130 chars)

    New Toll Brothers estate community in north Scottsdale. Off a beautiful courtyard, the foyer leads guests past a versatile flex room into an elegant great room that flows seamlessly into an impressive covered patio. Adjacent to a bright casual dining area, the well-appointed kitchen is complete with a walk-in pantry, a large island, and wraparound counters. At day's end, retreat to the primary bedroom, boasting a large walk-in closet and a tranquil bath featuring dual sinks, a serene soaking tub, a luxe shower with seat, and a private water closet. Two desirable secondary bedroom en-suites offer walk-in closets and private baths. Additional highlights include dedicated laundry spaces off the everyday entry with drop zone, a powder room, and extra storage throughout. Toll Brothers at HighPoint brings luxury living to a serene and sophisticated desert setting. Enjoy a network of trails within the community and a plethora of outdoor recreation nearby, including hiking, golf, and lake adventures, when you find your new luxury home in this desert paradise. Mountain and city light views in this premier gated community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $60,431
• − Mortgage interest: −$91,977
• − Property taxes: −$24,630
• − Insurance: −$8,210
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,834
• − Management: −$4,834
• − HOA: −$1,680
• − Depreciation: −$47,767
• Taxable loss: −$123,503
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29,641
• After-tax cash flow: $-60,469/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cave Creek Unified District (4244)
• NCES district ID: 0400001
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $102,788
• Composite: 54.46/100
• National rank: #1351
• State rank: #13 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 14,329
• Household income: $177,790
• Rent vs Own: 3.1% rent · 96.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 70.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.65%
• Current HPI: 286.3814
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $1,641,995 ARMLS