4219 Old State Rd · De Soto, MO 63020

$124,500

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Other public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1971 0.50 ac lot $67/mo HOA · 6% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 4219 Old State Road. Investors welcome! Value-add opportunity in a gated lake community with access to private 42-acre Valle Lake—enjoy fishing, boating, kayaking, and swimming. This home is priced to move and offers strong upside with the right finishing touches—an ideal chance to add value, build equity, and make it your own. It won't last long so schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Boating
• Gated lake community
• Swimming

Tags

• GATED LAKE COMMUNITY
• ACCESS TO PRIVATE LAKE
• FISHING
• BOATING
• KAYAKING
• SWIMMING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Road frontage on a private road (mix of asphalt and unimproved); Community features include clubhouse, fishing, gated access, and lake
• Financial info: Lease not considered; No second mortgage indicated; Seller may consider concessions
• HOA & community: Valles Lake association; Annual association fee of $800; Association amenities include beach access, boating, clubhouse, common ground, gated access, lake, park, picnic area, powered boats allowed, RV parking, and trails; Association fee covers maintenance of parking/roads, common area maintenance, snow removal, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Asphalt driveway; Attached 2-car garage (approx. 23 x 22)
• Security: Gated community; Key card entry
• Utilities: Community water; Lift system sewer; Electric service (other); Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; One level; Private ownership; Fixer condition
• Construction: Concrete, frame and vinyl siding construction; Architectural shingle / asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Basement with 8'+ poured construction
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Deck; Front porch; Entry steps/stairs; Back yard; Adjoins wooded area; Few trees; Sloped lot; Lake privileges (Valle Lake)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Free-standing electric range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen with laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on main level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath; 1 half bath
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced air heating; Central air; Attic fan; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Bar; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Laminate counters; Storage; Shutters and window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $124k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-342/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $119k (4.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $105k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.7% in De Soto — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#523 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Desoto 73 (town): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #153 of 324 in MO (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Athena Elem. (math 33% / reading 40%, grade F, #656 of 1,115 statewide, top 59%, 489 students, 45% FRL); Desoto Jr. High (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #220 of 391 statewide, top 59%, 381 students, 46% FRL); Desoto Sr. High (math 37% / reading 53%, grade D-, #176 of 521 statewide, top 34%, 848 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 807 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (104 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $861 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,188 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.37×
• Total profit: $-21,974
• Equity at exit: $18,563

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-21,409
• Equity at exit: $10,764

Cash invested: $34,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63020

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,052 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$653
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$221
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,088

Max offer price $119,466

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $7	+0% $-28	+5% $-64	+10% $-99
Rent	-10% $-112	-5% $-70	+0% $-28	+5% $13	+10% $55
Rate	-1.0pp $34	-0.5pp $3	base $-28	+0.5pp $-61	+1.0pp $-94

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,125
• Closing costs: $3,735
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: security

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-05
   listed $124,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$155/yr (+$13/mo · 14.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,623
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,974
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$622
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,010
• − Management: −$1,010
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$3,622
• Taxable loss: −$2,472
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$593
• After-tax cash flow: $251/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Desoto 73
• NCES district ID: 2910500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,354
• Composite: 33.52/100
• National rank: #5434
• State rank: #153 of 324 in MO

Livability — De Soto

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #19709

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 20,357

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,088 people
• By 2030: 238,365 · +1.4%
• By 2040: 240,156 · +2.2%
• By 2050: 234,651 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 214,569 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 179,697 · -23.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Iranian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.7) · D 31.0% · R 67.7% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.3pp toward R · 2008: 2.5pp · 2024: -36.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.7 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+35.3 2012: R+12.7 2008: D+2.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.90%
• Current HPI: 217.2807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $124,500 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.