8414 Castle Garden Rd · Ellenton, FL 34221

$189,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,488 sqft · Manufactured public records · 185 Days on market

Built 2001 5,358 sqft lot Est $213k · 11% under $181/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 22% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• ARV discount +12.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ANOTHER MAJOR PRICE DROP on this one owner unit. First time on the market and ready for a new owner's personal touches. Spacious 3 bedroom / 2 bath split design home with a 2-car carport is waiting for you and your touches. A 2001 Jacobsen Home with lots of character. Great room with vaulted ceilings gives the feel of plenty of space. Family room / dining combo. Light and bright. Plan on falling in love with this home on a lot that backs to a heavy, wooded tract. Plenty of privacy and space to expand. Updated roof and a/c system. Mature oaks and landscaping welcome you. Located in a pet friendly, 55+ plus park with plenty of social activities if you choose and amenities galore to include mu

Key facts

• One owner unit
• Updated a c system
• Split design home

Tags

• ONE OWNER UNIT
• SPLIT DESIGN HOME
• UPDATED ROOF
• UPDATED A C SYSTEM
• BACKS TO WOODED TRACT
• PLENTY OF PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Partially furnished; Total living area reported; building area reported by owner; Private maintained asphalt road access
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: Imperial Lakes; Monthly HOA approximately $181.33 (quarterly fee noted); Association approval required; Senior community; Street lights; Pets allowed (dogs allowed, weight limit ~25 lbs, number/size restrictions apply)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Golf cart parking; 2-space carport
• Security: Gated community; Security lights; Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; BB/HS internet available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Fire hydrant nearby; Underground utilities; Irrigation equipment
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story; Faces north; Located in a gated community
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof; Built by Jacobsen Homes; Crawlspace foundation
• Exterior features: Storage; Mature landscaping with trees; Cul-de-sac lot; Near golf course; Private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Exhaust fan; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Storage areas
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Split bedroom layout; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry located in common area, in kitchen, and inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $457 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $190k).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Virgil Mills Elementary School (math 69% / reading 65%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 818 students, 43% FRL); Buffalo Creek Middle School (math 59% / reading 51%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 1,127 students, 44% FRL); Palmetto High School (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #456 of 667 statewide, top 68%, 2,100 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-3.0%/yr); 1170 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 185 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 185 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.18%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.31%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,784
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8434 Imperial Cir	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+3%)	7mo	$187,500	$122	77
8466 Imperial Cir	0.38mi	2/2.0	1,502 (+1%)	4mo	$180,000	$120	77
8402 Imperial Cir	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,340 (-10%)	3mo	$198,000	$148	77
8308 Princess Ct	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,456 (-2%)	3mo	$180,000	$124	73
8427 Castle Garden Rd	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-13%)	3mo	$185,000	$143	73
8523 Countess Avenue Cir	0.45mi	2/2.0	1,431 (-4%)	5mo	$207,500	$145	69
8485 Imperial Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,592 (+7%)	3mo	$160,000	$101	67
8400 Princess Ct	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-2%)	4mo	$185,000	$127	67
8521 Countess Avenue Cir	0.45mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,596 (+7%)	2mo	$235,000	$147	61
8509 Monarch Pl	0.47mi	2/2.0	1,352 (-9%)	3mo	$255,000	$189	60
8534 Countess Avenue Cir	0.48mi	2/2.0	1,696 (+14%)	4mo	$230,000	$136	51
8531 Imperial Cir	0.43mi	2/2.0	1,274 (-14%)	6mo	$225,000	$177	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,302
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.09×
• Total profit: $4,660
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34221

• Rents YoY: -3.0%
• Active inventory: 1170
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,276 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$85 /mo · $1,026/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$181
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$478
• Net cashflow: $457

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,698

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 75%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $564	-5% $510	+0% $457	+5% $403	+10% $349
Rent	-10% $277	-5% $367	+0% $457	+5% $547	+10% $637
Rate	-1.0pp $552	-0.5pp $505	base $457	+0.5pp $408	+1.0pp $357

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9650 52nd Ave E Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$1,958	$1.87	25d	99	0.96mi
4117 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1448	$2,466	$1.70	23d	1	1.08mi
5020 Cedar Leaf Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$2,491	$2.85	3d	21	1.16mi
4014 84th Ct E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1555	$2,516	$1.62	23d	1	1.16mi
5871 Bungalow Grove Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1492	$2,185	$1.46	23d	1	1.19mi
9117 Optimist Way Palmetto, FL	2.0	2.0	1489	$2,200	$1.48	25d	1	1.22mi
6210 Terra Lago Cir Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1015	$1,962	$1.93	5d	50	1.28mi
6109 63rd Ave E Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1295	$1,960	$1.51	3d	1	1.30mi
7562 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1433	$2,400	$1.67	23d	1	1.31mi
7566 Sea Oak Ct Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.5	1807	$2,700	$1.49	23d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $181 · $2,172/yr
• Likely covers: landscaping

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,900 Active 185 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 182 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 181 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 178 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $189,900 Active 177 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $189,900 Active 175 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,900 Active 168 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,900 Active 167 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,900 Active 166 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,900 Active 165 DOM
16. 2026-05-13
    price $189,900
17. 2026-03-25
    price $199,900
18. 2026-02-27
    price $214,900
19. 2026-01-08
    price $224,900
20. 2025-12-17
    listed $244,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,026 · $85/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,576 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$550/yr (+$46/mo · 53.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$1,026
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,185
• − Management: −$2,185
• − HOA: −$2,172
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable income: $2,635
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$632
• After-tax cash flow: $4,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 56,208
• Household income: $77,712
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1193.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 14% Two or more races 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Dominican Republic, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -383.53%
• Current HPI: 302.1458
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.98%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-22.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $189,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $199,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $214,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $224,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-17 Listed $244,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,026 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.