2928 Aplin (33 Ac.) Rd · Crestview, FL 32539

$950,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 247 Days on market

Built 1987 33 ac lot $700/sqft · 278% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Cash flow +0.0/30.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location, location, location! Wake up surrounded by nature, the peacefulness of the tall trees, the birds chirping - all while having the convenience of shopping, schools, hospital & restaurants just a very short drive away. This all brick home has a sturdy metal roof, large living area, dining area, wide galley kitchen with pantry, huge primary bedroom with primary bath, two additional bedrooms on either side of the full hall bath & separate inside laundry room sits on 1 full acre of land (exact legal TBD by survey). Its location in the heart of Crestview could be just the balance of peace, privacy & potential that you've been looking for! Adjacent 32 acres also listed for sale. Free home warranty!!!!!

Key facts

• Acreage in crestview
• 33.2 acre lot
• Listed 246 days

Tags

• ACREAGE IN CRESTVIEW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $950k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-5k ($-62k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $204k (78.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (81.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (81.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate -0.2% vs local median 4.4% in Crestview — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#252 in FL, #3,858 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Okaloosa (other): math 60% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #12 of 73 in FL (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 526 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,268 units permitted in Okaloosa County in 2024 (175 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $7k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $28k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okaloosa County population projected at +37% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 247 days — a 12% lower offer ($836k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask is 304% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Recommended offer $178,230 (81.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 247 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 81% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.19% ✗
• Cap rate: -0.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -23.27%
• DSCR: -0.04
• GRM: 44.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,374
• List price: $950,000
• Delta: -6.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
223 Runnymeade Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,272 (-6%)	1mo	$240,000	$189	63
585 Brock Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-7%)	2mo	$239,850	$189	58
294 Limestone Cir	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,495 (+10%)	2mo	$230,000	$154	57
583 Brock Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-7%)	4mo	$239,900	$189	56
579 Brock Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-7%)	4mo	$244,800	$193	55
577 Brock Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-7%)	4mo	$244,800	$193	55
581 Brock Ave	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,267 (-7%)	6mo	$244,800	$193	54
296 Limestone Cir	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,510 (+11%)	6mo	$282,500	$187	52
1357 E Chestnut Ave	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-9%)	4mo	$265,000	$215	50
9 Holly Rd	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,533 (+13%)	4mo	$255,000	$166	46
591 Brock Ave	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-12%)	5mo	$199,999	$168	45
593 Brock Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,187 (-12%)	5mo	$199,900	$168	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -68.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.83×
• Total profit: $-487,400
• Equity at exit: $141,648

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -2.26×
• Total profit: $-866,710
• Equity at exit: $82,139

Cash invested: $266,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32539

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 526
• Price-to-rent: 44.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,982
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,188 /mo · $14,250/yr
• Insurance: −$396
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-5,157

Break-even live

Break-even rent $8,310

Max offer price $203,742

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,501	-5% $-4,829	+0% $-5,157	+5% $-5,485	+10% $-5,814
Rent	-10% $-5,298	-5% $-5,228	+0% $-5,157	+5% $-5,087	+10% $-5,016
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,679	-0.5pp $-4,916	base $-5,157	+0.5pp $-5,403	+1.0pp $-5,654

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $237,500
• Closing costs: $28,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Flora Cv Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1357	$1,750	$1.29	23d	1	0.22mi
475 Aplin Rd Crestview, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	764	$999	$1.31	45d	5	0.38mi
3016 Aplin Rd Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1280	$1,400	$1.09	45d	1	0.48mi
812 E Edney Ave Crestview, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,400	$1.37	46d	1	0.53mi
812 E Edney Ave Crestview, FL	2.0	2.0	1024	$1,400	$1.37	23d	1	0.53mi
177 Iron Horse Dr E Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1551	$1,700	$1.10	45d	1	0.53mi
4821 Acorn Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,930	$1.13	23d	1	0.54mi
4821 Acorn Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1705	$1,930	$1.13	15d	1	0.54mi
111 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,300	$0.90	45d	1	0.54mi
295 Limestone Cir Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,625	$1.47	45d	1	0.54mi
343 Crooked Pine Trl Unit 1 Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1415	$1,350	$0.95	15d	1	0.60mi
2500 E Redstone Ave Crestview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1428	$1,952	$1.37	15d	6	0.60mi
124 Sandstone Trl Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$1,900	$1.09	15d	1	0.60mi
347 Crooked Pine Trl Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,500	$1.11	15d	1	0.60mi
143 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,450	$1.01	23d	1	0.62mi
147 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1309	$1,395	$1.07	23d	1	0.62mi
365 Crooked Pine Trl Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,350	$1.00	15d	1	0.65mi
163 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,300	$0.96	45d	1	0.66mi
4 Holly Rd Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,725	$1.48	23d	1	0.66mi
4 Holly Rd Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1165	$1,725	$1.48	15d	1	0.66mi
301 E Redstone Ave Crestview, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1100	$2,202	$2.00	15d	20	0.71mi
408 Church St Crestview, FL	2.0	2.0	1086	$1,200	$1.10	45d	1	0.72mi
111 Steeplechase Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1637	$1,795	$1.10	45d	1	0.78mi
234 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1440	$1,350	$0.94	45d	1	0.81mi
240 Swaying Pine Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1356	$1,400	$1.03	45d	1	0.83mi
223 Johnson Ct #223 Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,450	$0.97	45d	1	0.96mi
648 Alysheba Dr Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1341	$1,800	$1.34	23d	1	0.96mi
211 Johnson Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1534	$1,450	$0.95	23d	1	0.98mi
204 Johnson Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,450	$0.97	45d	1	1.00mi
202 Johnson Ct Crestview, FL	3.0	2.5	1496	$1,450	$0.97	45d	1	1.01mi
114 Blooming Cv Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1712	$2,095	$1.22	23d	1	1.03mi
661 Brookmeade Dr Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1637	$2,200	$1.34	15d	1	1.05mi
210 Lyla Ln Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,295	$1.26	45d	1	1.10mi
812 Moorhen Way Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1830	$2,195	$1.20	45d	1	1.11mi
5179 Rabbit Run Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1818	$2,200	$1.21	15d	1	1.12mi
201 Lyla Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,999	$1.16	23d	1	1.14mi
201 Lyla Ln Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$2,095	$1.21	15d	1	1.14mi
157 Blooming Cv Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1727	$1,995	$1.16	45d	1	1.15mi
727 Quintana St Crestview, FL	4.0	2.0	1768	$2,300	$1.30	15d	1	1.15mi
916 Merganser Way Crestview, FL	3.0	2.0	1631	$1,950	$1.20	23d	1	1.17mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $950,000 Active 247 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $950,000 Active 246 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $950,000 Active 245 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $950,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on marketlisting id $950,000 Active 242 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $235,000 Active 94 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $235,000 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $235,000 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $235,000 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $235,000 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $235,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $235,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $235,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-30
    days on market $235,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $235,000 Active 730-char remark

    Show marketing remark (730 chars)

    Location, location, location! Wake up surrounded by nature, the peacefulness of the tall trees, the birds chirping - all while having the convenience of shopping, schools, hospital & restaurants just a very short drive away. This all brick home has a sturdy metal roof, large living area, dining area, wide galley kitchen with pantry, huge primary bedroom with primary bath, two additional bedrooms on either side of the full hall bath & separate inside laundry room sits on 1 full acre of land (exact legal TBD by survey). Its location in the heart of Crestview could be just the balance of peace, privacy & potential that you've been looking for! Adjacent 32 acres also listed for sale. Free home warranty!!!!!

16. 2025-10-13
    listed $950,000 Active 1632-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1632 chars)

    * * MOTIVATED SELLER! * * Incredible opportunity to own acreage in the heart of Crestview - discover the perfect blend of peace, privacy & potential on this approximately 33-acre property with a 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home & metal roof. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, exploring development opportunities, or simply seeking a private retreat surrounded by nature, this property checks every box. Wake up to birds chirping, spot deer down by the little creek, and enjoy your own slice of paradise while staying close to all the conveniences of town - shopping, schools, & restaurants just minutes away. Underbrush has been mostly cleared, making it easy to explore on foot or by UTV. Future Land Use is Low Density Residential - so many options for this versatile property. Incredible opportunity to own acreage in the heart of Crestview! Discover the perfect blend of peace, privacy, and potential on this approximately 33-acre property with a 3-bedroom, 2-bath brick home with a metal roof, just off Aplin Road. Whether you're dreaming of a quiet homestead, exploring development opportunities, or simply seeking a private retreat surrounded by nature, this property checks every box. Wake up to birds chirping, spot deer down by the little spring, and enjoy your own slice of paradise while staying close to all the conveniences of town - shopping, schools, and restaurants just minutes away. The underbrush has been mostly cleared, making it easy to explore on foot or by UTV. Future Land Use is Low Density Residential - this versatile property offers options right in the middle of Crestview.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$53,215
• − Property taxes: −$14,250
• − Insurance: −$4,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$27,636
• Taxable loss: −$81,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$19,653
• After-tax cash flow: $-42,234/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okaloosa
• NCES district ID: 1201380
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $55,601
• Composite: 51.62/100
• National rank: #1705
• State rank: #12 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crestview

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #252
• US rank: #3858

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Okaloosa County · 194,352 people
• City population: 58,889
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• Population (ZIP): 33,290
• Household income: $74,369
• Rent vs Own: 21.7% rent · 78.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 371.0

Population outlook (Okaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 235,133 people
• By 2030: 253,483 · +7.8%
• By 2040: 289,537 · +23.1%
• By 2050: 322,954 · +37.3%
• By 2075: 399,624 · +70.0%
• By 2100: 425,311 · +80.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 12% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Iranian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Okaloosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+42.4) · D 28.2% · R 70.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.5pp toward D · 2008: -44.9pp · 2024: -42.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+42.4 2020: R+39.1 2016: R+47.8 2012: R+49.4 2008: R+44.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.52%
• Current HPI: 261.1557
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Crestview-Fort Walton Beach-Destin, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-75.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $235,000 ECAR
• 2025-10-13 Listed $950,000 ECAR

Property tax history

+12.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,782 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.