3621 Lark Ln · Springfield, FL 32404

$170,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1966 8,712 sqft lot $149/sqft · 26% below area Est $231k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in central Panama City, you are within minutes of downtown Panama City and 15 minutes to Tyndall AFB. This home was renovated by previous owner back in 2018 with new roof, windows, HVAC and doors. This sale is a bankruptcy sale and subject to approval by the court. Home has flooring joist damage underneath and will need to be remedied.

Key facts

• New hvac
• Central panama city
• New roof

Tags

• CENTRAL PANAMA CITY
• MINUTES OF DOWNTOWN
• RENOVATED BY PREVIOUS OWNER
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW HVAC

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $191 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $170k).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 4.7% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#826 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.1%/yr); 969 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 14d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 29y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; 31% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $149,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1966 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.64%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.82%
• DSCR: 1.21
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,593
• List price: $170,000
• Delta: -26.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3541 Eagle Ln	0.13mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+3%)	2mo	$255,000	$217	83
3632 E Game Farm Rd	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+3%)	9mo	$259,900	$221	78
2603 Avondale Ct	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,140 (0%)	21mo	$225,000	$197	61
3637 E Baldwin Rd	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,254 (+10%)	15mo	$215,000	$171	59
2402 Quiet Oaks Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,218 (+7%)	10mo	$246,000	$202	43
3820 Wall Street St Unit HS 95	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	2mo	$270,900	$210	40
3852 Wall Street St Unit HS 87	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+13%)	3mo	$262,375	$203	39
2600 Willow Brook Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,288 (+13%)	20mo	$240,000	$186	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-18,545
• Equity at exit: $25,348

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-13,038
• Equity at exit: $14,698

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32404

• Home prices YoY: -16.1%
• Rents YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 969
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,729 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $170,000

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $309	-5% $250	+0% $191	+5% $133	+10% $74
Rent	-10% $55	-5% $123	+0% $191	+5% $260	+10% $328
Rate	-1.0pp $277	-0.5pp $235	base $191	+0.5pp $147	+1.0pp $102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3611 Eagle Ln Panama City, FL	2.0	2.0	943	$1,350	$1.43	14d	1	0.11mi
3530 Game Farm Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.16mi
3641 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	14d	1	0.23mi
2732 Usery Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,500	$1.50	14d	1	0.24mi
3525 T St Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,600	$1.28	21d	1	0.25mi
3733 Avon Rd Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1251	$1,900	$1.52	21d	1	0.28mi
2601 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.5	1371	$1,700	$1.24	14d	1	0.37mi
2611 Avondale Ct Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,495	$1.23	21d	1	0.41mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $170,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $170,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $170,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $170,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $170,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $170,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $170,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $170,000 Active 126 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $170,000 Active 125 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $170,000 Active 124 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $170,000 Active 123 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $170,000 Active 120 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $170,000 Active 119 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $170,000 Active 118 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $170,000 Active 117 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $170,000 Active 116 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $170,000 Active 115 DOM
18. 2026-01-30
    listed $170,000 Active 345-char remark

    Show marketing remark (345 chars)

    Located in central Panama City, you are within minutes of downtown Panama City and 15 minutes to Tyndall AFB. This home was renovated by previous owner back in 2018 with new roof, windows, HVAC and doors. This sale is a bankruptcy sale and subject to approval by the court. Home has flooring joist damage underneath and will need to be remedied.

19. 2021-12-14
    historical
20. 2018-10-04
    soldstatus $130,000
21. 2018-07-13
    listed $139,900
22. 2017-12-27
    soldstatus $35,000
23. 2017-09-25
    listed $39,900
24. 2006-12-01
    listed $104,000
25. 1998-09-19
    soldstatus $28,000
26. 1998-09-01
    soldstatus $28,000
27. 1997-12-25
    listed $35,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,660
• − Management: −$1,660
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$436
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$105
• After-tax cash flow: $2,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #826
• US rank: #20265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,514
• Household income: $74,708
• Rent vs Own: 30.8% rent · 69.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1218.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam, Mexico
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 6% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.59%
• Current HPI: 263.7178
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.12%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+378.9% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-30 Listed $170,000 CPARMLS
• 2021-12-14 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2018-10-04 Sold (MLS) $130,000 CPARMLS
• 2018-07-13 Listed $139,900 CPARMLS
• 2017-12-27 Sold (MLS) $35,000 CPARMLS
• 2017-09-25 Listed $39,900 CPARMLS
• 2006-12-01 Listed $104,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-09-19 Sold (MLS) $28,000 CPARMLS
• 1998-09-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 1997-12-25 Listed $35,500 CPARMLS

Property tax history

-6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $251 · +6.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.