4997 Mayo Cir · Pace, FL 32571

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,125 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1997 0.26 ac lot Est $234k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.9/30.0
• ARV discount +6.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This home feels much larger than the sq.ft. listed! Don't miss seeing inside! Great Location! Conveniently located between Summerdale and Spencer Oaks subdivisions. Easy access to Chumuckla Hwy., Hwy. 90 and Garcon Point bridge. This home has a split floorplan with a fenced backyard on a large, corner lot. Many upgrades to the home and property since built. Lots of attention to the landscaping and maintenance of the house and yard. New kitchen floor added in 2002! In immaculate condition. Easily add on from the back for extra bedrooms or bonus area. Always a No-Smoking home! Also for lease!

Key facts

• Garage conversion
• Large corner lot
• Bonus living space

Tags

• LARGE CORNER LOT
• SPACIOUS FENCED BACKYARD
• GARAGE CONVERSION
• BONUS LIVING SPACE
• MATURE TREES
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Open parking; Driveway with side entrance
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Electric service with circuit breakers and copper wiring; Paved, county-maintained road access
• Home design: Single-story frame home; Resale property; Not attached to another property; Homestead exempt; Green features include insulated walls and ridge vent
• Construction: Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with frame construction; One level
• Exterior features: Privacy fencing; Patio; Porch; Corner lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedroom(s) on the first floor
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Insulated doors; Baseboards; Double pane windows with blinds
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry with washer/dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $113 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $200k (16.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $200k (16.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.4% in Pace — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#475 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Pea Ridge Elementary School (math 57% / reading 55%, grade C+, #832 of 2,144 statewide, top 40%, 837 students, 60% FRL); Pace High School (math 63% / reading 62%, grade B-, #93 of 667 statewide, top 14%, 2,240 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.7%/yr); 674 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $198k; 21% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,759 (16.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.86%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.03%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,000
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4732 Pine Ln	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,104 (-2%)	1mo	$230,000	$208	88
4885 Mayo Cir	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,182 (+5%)	2mo	$255,000	$216	76
4737 Frontier Rd	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,282 (+14%)	14mo	$240,000	$187	58
4858 Lamar Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,204 (+7%)	7mo	$252,000	$209	58
4700 Frontier Rd	0.31mi	3/2.0	1,224 (+9%)	20mo	$229,000	$187	54
4448 Pine Villa Cir	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,146 (+2%)	15mo	$250,000	$218	54
4713 Frontier Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,242 (+10%)	24mo	$250,000	$201	52
4732 W Spencer Field Rd	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,144 (+2%)	12mo	$95,000	$83	48
4397 Pine Villa Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,025 (-9%)	22mo	$217,000	$212	33
4832 Makenna Cir	0.73mi	3/2.0	1,285 (+14%)	16mo	$250,000	$195	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.72% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-32,171
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-21,372
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32571

• Home prices YoY: -17.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 674
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,998 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$112 /mo · $1,345/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,854

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $181	+0% $113	+5% $45	+10% $-22
Rent	-10% $-45	-5% $34	+0% $113	+5% $192	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $233	-0.5pp $174	base $113	+0.5pp $51	+1.0pp $-12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4496 Fiske St Milton, FL	3.0	2.0	1418	$1,850	$1.30	15d	1	1.13mi
4716 Chumuckla Hwy Unit 3903 Pace, FL	3.0	1.0	840	$1,250	$1.49	25d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $239,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $239,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $245,000 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $245,000 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $245,000 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $245,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $245,000 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $245,000 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $245,000 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $245,000 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $245,000 Active 15 DOM
17. 2026-05-15
    listed $245,000 Active
18. 2022-06-29
    soldstatus $198,000
19. 2003-08-29
    soldstatus $85,400
20. 2003-08-22
    soldstatus $85,350 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This home feels much larger than the sq.ft. listed! Don't miss seeing inside! Great Location! Conveniently located between Summerdale and Spencer Oaks subdivisions. Easy access to Chumuckla Hwy., Hwy. 90 and Garcon Point bridge. This home has a split floorplan with a fenced backyard on a large, corner lot. Many upgrades to the home and property since built. Lots of attention to the landscaping and maintenance of the house and yard. New kitchen floor added in 2002! In immaculate condition. Easily add on from the back for extra bedrooms or bonus area. Always a No-Smoking home! Also for lease!

21. 2003-01-07
    listed $85,700 597-char remark

    Show marketing remark (597 chars)

    This home feels much larger than the sq.ft. listed! Don't miss seeing inside! Great Location! Conveniently located between Summerdale and Spencer Oaks subdivisions. Easy access to Chumuckla Hwy., Hwy. 90 and Garcon Point bridge. This home has a split floorplan with a fenced backyard on a large, corner lot. Many upgrades to the home and property since built. Lots of attention to the landscaping and maintenance of the house and yard. New kitchen floor added in 2002! In immaculate condition. Easily add on from the back for extra bedrooms or bonus area. Always a No-Smoking home! Also for lease!

22. 2001-09-30
    historical
23. 2001-03-22
    listed $96,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,345 · $112/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,984 · $165/mo
• Expected delta: +$639/yr (+$53/mo · 47.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,971
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$1,345
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,918
• − Management: −$1,918
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$2,745
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$659
• After-tax cash flow: $2,016/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Pace

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #475
• US rank: #8593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pace, FL
• County: Santa Rosa County · 194,764 people
• City population: 42,171
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• Population (ZIP): 42,171
• Household income: $87,617
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.39%
• Current HPI: 290.2953
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.72%
• Metro: Pensacola-Ferry Pass-Brent, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+153.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $245,000 PARMLS
• 2022-06-29 Sold (Public Records) $198,000 Public Records
• 2003-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $85,400 Public Records
• 2003-08-22 Sold (MLS) $85,350 PARMLS
• 2003-01-07 Listed $85,700 PARMLS
• 2001-09-30 Listing Removed — PARMLS
• 2001-03-22 Listed $96,500 PARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,345 · +3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.