109 Des Moines Trl · Bracey, VA 23919

$39,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 6 Days on market

Built 2017 3,484 sqft lot Est $56k · 29% under $67/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

2017 Cyclone Toy Hauler 5th Wheel Camper with a Spacious Metal Carport. Nice deck in a peaceful setting. Situated on a quiet road, close to the Lake, Community Boat Launch & Day Slips! One bedroom with built-in cabinets & closets & a hide-away TV & an additional room with a retractable leather couch/bed for additional sleeping. 2 full bathrooms. Plenty of cabinets and storage space. Specialty lighting, full size refrigerator, Sliding glass door to a fold down deck, & a walkout back patio with a pretty view! The camper interior needs a little TLC, needs new flooring and a few other cosmetic repairs, but overall, it is in good condition. Handicap ramp & Mini

Key facts

• Specialty lighting
• Built-in cabinets
• Plenty of cabinets

Tags

• SPACIOUS METAL CARPORT
• COMMUNITY BOAT LAUNCH
• DAY SLIPS
• BUILT-IN CABINETS
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• SPECIALTY LIGHTING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located on Lake Gaston NW Quad
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $67.50; Located in River Ridge Golf & Camping Club

Exterior

• Parking: Detached carport; Gravel parking; Has carport
• Security: Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential / Vacation property; One story; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Side porch; Deck; Gravel road access; Has view

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range; Gas oven; Refrigerator; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Total of 3 rooms (bedrooms and living areas combined)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Other heating; Wall unit cooling
• Interior features: Window coverings and treatments; Smoke detector(s)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $767 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Cap rate 29.4% vs local median 2.5% in Bracey — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#421 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Mecklenburg County Public School District (rural): math 57% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #49 of 131 in VA (top 37%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Mecklenburg County Middle (874 students, 88% FRL); Mecklenburg County High (1,163 students, 88% FRL) — zoned schools average 88% FRL vs 54% district-wide (34 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; 153 units permitted in Mecklenburg County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $843 of equity ($276 loan paydown + $567 appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Mecklenburg County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (1.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $16k; list at $40k implies a 149% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $39,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 29.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 82.40%
• DSCR: 4.67
• GRM: 2.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $56,400
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
109 Des Moines Trl	0.00mi	2/2.0	400 (0%)	0mo	$30,000	$75	100
302 Bighorn Trl	0.17mi	1/— (-1)	400 (0%)	1mo	$23,000	$58	86
18 Blackfoot Trl	0.07mi	1/1.0 (-1)	396 (-1%)	6mo	$45,000	$114	81
307 Allegheny Dr	0.28mi	2/2.0	425 (+6%)	10mo	$60,000	$141	68
478 Laramie Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	380 (-5%)	10mo	$67,500	$178	49
177 Happy Trl	0.46mi	1/1.0 (-1)	350 (-12%)	5mo	$40,000	$114	44
40 Mohawk Trl	0.65mi	2/1.0	352 (-12%)	10mo	$50,000	$142	37
379 Gila Trl	0.64mi	2/1.0	346 (-14%)	8mo	$86,000	$249	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.42% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 85.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $50,496
• Equity at exit: $14,502

10-year hold

• IRR: 86.3%
• Equity multiple: 11.35×
• Total profit: $115,669
• Equity at exit: $19,971

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23919

• Home prices YoY: 0.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 2.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,405 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$50 /mo · $598/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $767

Break-even live

Break-even rent $434

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   status Active
3. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-09
   listed $39,900 Active
5. 2019-10-22
   soldstatus $16,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,859
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$598
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,349
• − Management: −$1,349
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $9,164
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,199
• After-tax cash flow: $7,006/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mecklenburg County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102460
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -29.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $37,491
• Composite: 53.55/100
• National rank: #1446
• State rank: #49 of 131 in VA

Livability — Bracey

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #421
• US rank: #18014

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bracey, VA
• City population: 2,096
• Population (ZIP): 2,096

Population outlook (Mecklenburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 28,332 people
• By 2030: 26,742 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 23,502 · -17.0%
• By 2050: 20,851 · -26.4%
• By 2075: 17,525 · -38.1%
• By 2100: 14,524 · -48.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Black 10% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Russian 5% Slovak 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mecklenburg

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.4% · R 60.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.2pp toward R · 2008: -4.6pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+15.2 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+7.2 2008: R+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Current HPI: 204.6074
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+149.4% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-04-20 Relisted — RVLG
• 2026-04-10 Pending — RVLG
• 2026-04-09 Listed $39,900 RVLG
• 2019-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $16,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $18 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.