367 Sleepy Meadow Dr · Runaway Bay, TX 76426

$169,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,171 sqft · Manufactured · 229 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 8,494 sqft lot $145/sqft · 21% below area Est $215k · 21% under ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

Key facts

• Deck on the front
• Paved parking pad
• Paved walkway

Tags

• MATCHING WHIRLPOOL APPLIANCES
• COZY ELECTRIC FIREPLACE
• DECK ON THE FRONT
• DECK ON THE BACK
• PAVED PARKING PAD
• PAVED WALKWAY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $170k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $70 ($840/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $158k (7.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $150k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 2.8% in Runaway Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#491 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jacksboro ISD (town): math 42% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #337 of 826 in TX (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 340 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 229 days — a 12% lower offer ($150k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $149,599 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 229 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.76%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $215,000
• List price: $169,999
• Delta: -20.93%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
408 Sleepy Meadow Dr	0.12mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,345 (+15%)	4mo	$214,000	$159	62
10780 Shady Oaks Dr	0.19mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,038 (-11%)	20mo	$177,990	$171	51
190 Meadow Pond Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5	1,064 (-9%)	8mo	$225,000	$211	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-6,938
• Equity at exit: $42,506

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.32×
• Total profit: $15,077
• Equity at exit: $45,899

Cash invested: $47,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 340
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,576 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$212 /mo · $2,550/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,487

Max offer price $169,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $187	-5% $129	+0% $70	+5% $11	+10% $-48
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $8	+0% $70	+5% $132	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $156	-0.5pp $113	base $70	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $-19

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,500
• Closing costs: $5,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10915 Shady Oaks Dr Runaway Bay, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,398	$0.94	0d	1	0.42mi
140 Spring Hill Ct Bridgeport, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,200	$1.67	0d	1	0.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $169,999 Active 229 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $169,999 Active 226 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $169,999 Active 225 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $169,999 Active 224 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $169,999 Active 223 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 221 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $169,999 Active 220 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $169,999 Active 217 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $169,999 Active 216 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $169,999 Active 215 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $169,999 Active 212 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $169,999 Active 211 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $169,999 Active 210 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $169,999 Active 209 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $169,999 Active 208 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    price $169,999 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

17. 2026-02-27
    price $175,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

18. 2026-02-16
    price $179,000 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

19. 2026-02-02
    price $184,999 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

20. 2025-12-14
    price $189,999 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

21. 2025-10-31
    listed $199,999 Active 578-char remark

    Show marketing remark (578 chars)

    Brand new manufactured home tucked away in the quiet rural area of Runaway Bay. Step inside this beautiful home featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Master bedroom is secluded away from other bedrooms. Kitchen features an island, all matching whirlpool appliances including refrigerator, oven, microwave and dishwasher. Living room features a cozy electric fireplace with room for your large TV over the fireplace. 2 inch blinds on all windows. Owner has built a deck on the front and back as well as a paved parking pad with a carport and paved walkway to the front door.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,908
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,523
• − Property taxes: −$2,550
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,513
• − Management: −$1,513
• − Depreciation: −$4,945
• Taxable loss: −$1,985
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$476
• After-tax cash flow: $1,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This brand new manufactured home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a good investment opportunity with potential for value increase through minor updates.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value.
• Both Landscaping around the deck — Improves the overall aesthetic and adds value for both resale and rental.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Interior paint — Fresh paint can make the home more appealing and increase its value. ↑
• Both Landscaping around the deck — Improves the overall aesthetic and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824530
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $47,739
• Composite: 35.94/100
• National rank: #4802
• State rank: #337 of 826 in TX

Livability — Runaway Bay

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #491
• US rank: #9730

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.0% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $169,999 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $175,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-16 Price Changed $179,000 NTREIS
• 2026-02-02 Price Changed $184,999 NTREIS
• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $189,999 NTREIS
• 2025-10-31 Listed $199,999 NTREIS