32694 Ventura Ln · Winchester, CA 92596

$494,476

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,695 sqft · Townhouse · 155 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $470k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• ARV discount +5.1/15.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.3/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.5/10.0

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 155 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $494k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-648 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $401k (19.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $351k (29.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $351k (29.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 3.8% in Winchester — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#992 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime B; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Hemet Unified (suburban): math 19% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #360 of 517 in CA (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.8%/yr); 355 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($133k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $53k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $49k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$85k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 155 days — a 12% lower offer ($435k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $350,567 (29.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 155 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.72%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.61%
• DSCR: 0.75
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $469,515
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
32719 Ventura Ln	0.02mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,695 (0%)	0mo	$501,770	$296	94
32696 Manhattan Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,695 (0%)	2mo	$495,000	$292	92
32879 Manhattan Ave	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,695 (0%)	5mo	$468,690	$277	91
32720 Manhattan Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,695 (0%)	4mo	$473,690	$279	91
29388 Oceanside Dr	0.05mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,695 (0%)	3mo	$500,135	$295	90
29328 Oceanside Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,695 (0%)	6mo	$449,990	$265	88
32744 Manhattan Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-2%)	3mo	$435,990	$263	87
32732 Manhattan Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-2%)	4mo	$429,990	$259	87
29364 Oceanside Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-2%)	4mo	$424,990	$256	86
29340 Oceanside Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-2%)	5mo	$433,690	$262	86
29352 Oceanside Dr	0.04mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,658 (-2%)	6mo	$458,690	$277	85
32852 Manhattan Ave	0.09mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,649 (-3%)	5mo	$440,000	$267	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $217,829
• Equity at exit: $445,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.74×
• Total profit: $655,623
• Equity at exit: $960,658

Cash invested: $138,453 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92596

• Home prices YoY: 3.9%
• Rents YoY: -0.8%
• Active inventory: 355
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,506 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,593
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$618 /mo · $7,417/yr
• Insurance: −$206
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$736
• Net cashflow: $-648

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,326

Max offer price $400,748

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $123,619
• Closing costs: $14,834
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
32568 Ventura Ln Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1650	$3,000	$1.82	20d	1	0.07mi
32333 Wild West Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1751	$2,950	$1.68	43d	1	0.27mi
29555 Copper Hill Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1823	$3,195	$1.75	2d	1	0.59mi
32202 Prairie Crossing Dr Winchester, CA	3.0	2.0	1948	$2,950	$1.51	1d	1	0.60mi
29475 Jack Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,269	$1.92	43d	1	0.92mi
29474 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	7d	1	0.93mi
29467 Monterey Pine Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,429	$1.94	20d	1	0.95mi
29449 White Ash Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	1532	$3,379	$2.21	15d	1	0.95mi
29472 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.96mi
29471 Granadillo Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	20d	1	0.98mi
29424 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1771	$3,459	$1.95	20d	1	0.99mi
29430 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	7d	1	0.99mi
29429 Cumaru Ct Winchester, CA	4.0	2.5	1699	$3,349	$1.97	1d	1	1.00mi
29587 Winterstorm Ct Winchester, CA	3.0	2.5	2054	$3,195	$1.56	12d	1	1.09mi
29505 Bovenzi Way Winchester, CA	4.0	2.0	1754	$3,100	$1.77	15d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-06-18
   listed $494,476 Active 155 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,068
• − Mortgage interest: −$27,698
• − Property taxes: −$7,417
• − Insurance: −$2,472
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,365
• − Management: −$3,365
• − Depreciation: −$14,385
• Taxable loss: −$16,635
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,993
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,780/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hemet Unified
• NCES district ID: 0616920
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,962
• Composite: 25.16/100
• National rank: #7517
• State rank: #360 of 517 in CA

Livability — Winchester

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #992
• US rank: #24750

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B Employment C Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Riverside County · 2,287,001 people
• City population: 38,981
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 38,981
• Household income: $132,538
• Rent vs Own: 16.1% rent · 83.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 591.0

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 38% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 16% Asian 12% Black 6% Pacific Islander 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Tagalog/Filipino 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.43%
• Current HPI: 332.169
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.79%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B