2650 W Union Hills Dr #800 · Phoenix, AZ 85027

$75,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured · 96 Days on market

Built 1971 Good condition $52/sqft · 15% above area Est $65k · 15% over ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• ARV discount +0.6/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover this adorable 2-bedroom manufactured home in the sought-after Friendly Village of Orangewood! Corner lot with plenty of additional parking. NEW ROOF. You'll first notice the cozy front porch, perfect for morning coffee and look onto the golf course. Convenient carport parking. Inside, you'll find bright and airy living areas with wood-look floors, tons of natural light, and a soothing palette that makes every space feel warm and welcoming. The well-appointed kitchen is ready for your home cooking, displaying ample cabinetry, spacious counters, and built-in essentials. Get a good night's sleep in the main retreat, offering a closet and a private bathroom. Inside laundry room for added convenience! The paver patio is perfect for relaxation. This home is a must-see!

Key facts

• Front porch
• Natural light
• Carport parking

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• FRONT PORCH
• GOLF COURSE
• CARPORT PARKING
• BRIGHT LIVING AREAS
• NATURAL LIGHT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $75k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.8%/yr); 169 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $519 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 96 days — a 9% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $68,250 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 96 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 44.75%
• DSCR: 2.99
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $65,000
• List price: $75,000
• Delta: 15.38%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2650 W Union Hills Dr #114	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$29,000	$20	89
2650 W Union Hills Dr #131	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,488 (+3%)	8mo	$60,500	$41	88
2650 W Union Hills Dr #100	0.01mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$99,000	$69	87
2650 W Union Hills Dr #33	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (0%)	13mo	$55,000	$38	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #138	0.01mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	5mo	$74,000	$48	84
2650 W Union Hills Dr #8	0.08mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+7%)	2mo	$65,000	$42	83
2650 W Union Hills Dr #215	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	10mo	$37,500	$28	81
2650 W Union Hills Dr #43	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-7%)	4mo	$50,000	$37	80
2650 W Union Hills Dr #258	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,488 (+3%)	12mo	$80,000	$54	79
2650 W Union Hills Dr #133	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	4mo	$53,000	$42	72
2650 W Union Hills Dr #247	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,250 (-13%)	2mo	$62,000	$50	68
2650 W Union Hills Dr #257	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	9mo	$79,000	$63	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 38.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.57×
• Total profit: $32,925
• Equity at exit: $11,183

10-year hold

• IRR: 43.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.54×
• Total profit: $74,342
• Equity at exit: $6,485

Cash invested: $21,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85027

• Rents YoY: -2.8%
• Active inventory: 169
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,647 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$94 /mo · $1,125/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $656

Max offer price $75,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,750
• Closing costs: $2,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
18250 N 25th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$1,712	$1.73	2d	17	0.43mi
2929 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,498	$1.64	18d	2	0.46mi
18422 N 30th Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1604	$2,275	$1.42	24d	1	0.53mi
17840 N Black Canyon Hwy Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$1,655	$1.88	2d	19	0.57mi
18001 N 29th Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1500	$1,800	$1.20	43d	1	0.59mi
3010 W Yorkshire Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	975	$1,444	$1.48	1d	80	0.59mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-117 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,000	$1.00	7d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,245	$1.25	14d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 15-001 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	14d	1	0.73mi
2039 W Union Hills Dr Unit 39-143 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,345	$1.22	7d	1	0.73mi
2953 W Libby St Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1640	$2,095	$1.28	43d	1	0.74mi
2020 W Union Hills Dr #254 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1049	$1,650	$1.57	43d	1	0.76mi
19940 N 23rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	4.0	1.0–2.0	812	$1,374	$1.69	1d	69	0.82mi
3144 W Charleston Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$1,845	$1.70	16d	1	0.83mi
2431 W Shady Glen Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1586	$2,155	$1.36	7d	1	0.90mi
3411 W Morrow Dr #3 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,495	$1.42	43d	1	0.91mi
18811 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	885	$1,525	$1.72	1d	2	1.06mi
3338 W Tonto Ln Phoenix, AZ	2.0	1.0	1206	$1,375	$1.14	7d	1	1.06mi
3250 W Helena Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1850	$2,450	$1.32	24d	1	1.09mi
2018 W Meadow Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1659	$2,005	$1.21	7d	1	1.12mi
1750 W Union Hills Dr #91 Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1680	$1,900	$1.13	5d	1	1.14mi
18435 N 36th Ave Glendale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1386	$2,400	$1.73	43d	1	1.14mi
20227 N 21st Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1280	$1,500	$1.17	43d	1	1.14mi
20245 N 32nd Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	834	$1,530	$1.83	3d	14	1.16mi
2902 W Irma Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1553	$2,295	$1.48	43d	1	1.18mi
20808 N 27th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	962	$1,548	$1.61	2d	14	1.20mi
3202 W Bell Rd Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	719	$1,299	$1.81	1d	34	1.24mi
2109 W Danbury Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1175	$1,695	$1.44	43d	1	1.26mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 204 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,199	$1.28	43d	1	1.27mi
17609 N 19th Ave Apt 107 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,325	$1.42	2d	1	1.28mi
17216 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	741	$1,525	$2.06	2d	20	1.29mi
17609 N 19th Ave Unit 209 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	935	$1,099	$1.18	24d	1	1.29mi
17402 N 19th Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1194	$1,450	$1.21	2d	2	1.30mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	12d	2	1.36mi
3420 W Danbury Dr Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	810	$1,485	$1.83	24d	2	1.36mi
1708 W Behrend Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	1.5	1320	$1,761	$1.33	7d	1	1.36mi
20601 N 33rd Ave Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1085	$2,100	$1.94	24d	1	1.36mi
3434 W Danbury Dr Unit A114 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	896	$1,485	$1.66	24d	1	1.37mi
1547 W Kerry Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1314	$2,195	$1.67	43d	1	1.37mi
17211 N 35th Ave Phoenix, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	827	$1,500	$1.81	18d	2	1.37mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $75,000 Active 96 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $75,000 Active 95 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $75,000 Active 94 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $75,000 Active 93 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $75,000 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $75,000 Active 87 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $75,000 Active 86 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $75,000 Active 85 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $75,000 Active 82 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $75,000 Active 81 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $75,000 Active 80 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $75,000 Active 79 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $75,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    price $75,000 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Discover this adorable 2-bedroom manufactured home in the sought-after Friendly Village of Orangewood! Corner lot with plenty of additional parking. NEW ROOF. You'll first notice the cozy front porch, perfect for morning coffee and look onto the golf course. Convenient carport parking. Inside, you'll find bright and airy living areas with wood-look floors, tons of natural light, and a soothing palette that makes every space feel warm and welcoming. The well-appointed kitchen is ready for your home cooking, displaying ample cabinetry, spacious counters, and built-in essentials. Get a good night's sleep in the main retreat, offering a closet and a private bathroom. Inside laundry room for added convenience! The paver patio is perfect for relaxation. This home is a must-see!

16. 2026-03-02
    listed $85,000 Active 782-char remark

    Show marketing remark (782 chars)

    Discover this adorable 2-bedroom manufactured home in the sought-after Friendly Village of Orangewood! Corner lot with plenty of additional parking. NEW ROOF. You'll first notice the cozy front porch, perfect for morning coffee and look onto the golf course. Convenient carport parking. Inside, you'll find bright and airy living areas with wood-look floors, tons of natural light, and a soothing palette that makes every space feel warm and welcoming. The well-appointed kitchen is ready for your home cooking, displaying ample cabinetry, spacious counters, and built-in essentials. Get a good night's sleep in the main retreat, offering a closet and a private bathroom. Inside laundry room for added convenience! The paver patio is perfect for relaxation. This home is a must-see!

17. 2024-08-10
    historical
18. 2024-07-31
    price $85,000
19. 2024-07-15
    listed $89,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥111°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,769
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,201
• − Property taxes: −$1,125
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,582
• − Management: −$1,582
• − Depreciation: −$2,182
• Taxable income: $8,723
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,094
• After-tax cash flow: $7,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained manufactured home in a desirable location offers a cozy front porch and golf course views. With a new roof and good condition throughout, it's ready for a new owner to enjoy.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Clean gutters — Improves drainage and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 39,487
• Household income: $76,605
• Rent vs Own: 43.5% rent · 56.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1533.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 13% Asian 7% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.58%
• Current HPI: 356.8851
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.75%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-15.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $75,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-10 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2024-07-31 Price Changed $85,000 ARMLS
• 2024-07-15 Listed $89,000 ARMLS