844 Dry Fork Rd · Blairs, VA 24549

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,803 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1950 0.94 ac lot $53/sqft · 77% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Being sold As-IS this 2-3 BR 1 BA home has a main level bedroom, hardwood floors, LVP flooring in the kitchen, and some replacement windows. Unfinished basement with laundry hook ups.

Key facts

• Main level bedroom
• Laundry hook ups
• Lvp flooring

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL BEDROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• LVP FLOORING
• REPLACEMENT WINDOWS
• LAUNDRY HOOK UPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $388 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#253 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, employment D+.
• Pittsylvania County Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #22 of 131 in VA (top 17%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Chatham Elementary (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A-, #313 of 1,108 statewide, top 32%, 234 students, 80% FRL); Chatham Middle (math 52% / reading 77%, grade A-, #123 of 342 statewide, top 37%, 426 students, 81% FRL); Chatham High (math 77% / reading 87%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 659 students, 79% FRL) — zoned schools average 80% FRL vs 47% district-wide (33 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 72 units permitted in Pittsylvania County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pittsylvania County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; list at $95k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.48%
• DSCR: 1.78
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $230,475
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -58.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $9,258
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.49×
• Total profit: $39,726
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24549

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,225 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$42 /mo · $506/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$257
• Net cashflow: $388

Break-even live

Break-even rent $734

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 63%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $441	-5% $414	+0% $388	+5% $361	+10% $334
Rent	-10% $291	-5% $339	+0% $388	+5% $436	+10% $484
Rate	-1.0pp $435	-0.5pp $412	base $388	+0.5pp $363	+1.0pp $338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 28 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $95,000 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 99 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 98 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-13
   days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-06-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
17. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
18. 2026-05-30
    days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
19. 2026-05-04
    price $99,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Being sold As-IS this 2-3 BR 1 BA home has a main level bedroom, hardwood floors, LVP flooring in the kitchen, and some replacement windows. Unfinished basement with laundry hook ups.

20. 2026-04-02
    price $105,000 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Being sold As-IS this 2-3 BR 1 BA home has a main level bedroom, hardwood floors, LVP flooring in the kitchen, and some replacement windows. Unfinished basement with laundry hook ups.

21. 2026-03-12
    listed $110,000 Active 183-char remark

    Show marketing remark (183 chars)

    Being sold As-IS this 2-3 BR 1 BA home has a main level bedroom, hardwood floors, LVP flooring in the kitchen, and some replacement windows. Unfinished basement with laundry hook ups.

22. 2024-05-21
    status Active
23. 2024-04-15
    price $130,000
24. 2024-03-28
    status Active
25. 2024-03-28
    price $135,000
26. 2024-01-09
    price $149,000
27. 2024-01-06
    listed $159,900 Active
28. 2021-05-07
    soldstatus $54,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $506 · $42/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $779 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$273/yr (+$23/mo · 54.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$506
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,176
• − Management: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $3,278
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$787
• After-tax cash flow: $3,863/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pittsylvania County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102940
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -22.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $41,672
• Composite: 59.77/100
• National rank: #900
• State rank: #22 of 131 in VA

Livability — Blairs

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #253
• US rank: #8616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,117

Population outlook (Pittsylvania County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,725 people
• By 2030: 56,388 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 51,088 · -13.0%
• By 2050: 45,875 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 36,555 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 28,288 · -51.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Pittsylvania

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+43.1) · D 28.1% · R 71.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.1pp toward R · 2008: -24.0pp · 2024: -43.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+43.1 2020: R+39.8 2016: R+39.6 2012: R+27.5 2008: R+24.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.67%
• Current HPI: 175.1127
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+83.3% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $99,000 DRRAR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $105,000 DRRAR
• 2026-03-12 Listed $110,000 DRRAR
• 2024-05-21 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2024-04-15 Price Changed $130,000 DRRAR
• 2024-03-28 Relisted — DRRAR
• 2024-03-28 Price Changed $135,000 DRRAR
• 2024-01-09 Price Changed $149,000 DRRAR
• 2024-01-06 Listed $159,900 DRRAR
• 2021-05-07 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $506 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.