Jefferson Plan · Dade City, FL 33525

$346,440

6 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,463 sqft · SingleFamily · 454 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• Versatile loft space
• Stylish kitchen
• Guest suite

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• STYLISH KITCHEN
• GUEST SUITE
• HOME OFFICE
• VERSATILE LOFT SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $348,290

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Jefferson plan; Single-family home
• Construction: Built as new construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: 2,463 living area (plan total); New construction

Interior

• Kitchen: Includes standard new-construction kitchen appliances
• Bedrooms: 6 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Open floor plan (Jefferson plan)
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (in-unit)

🏗️ New construction. The $346,440 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $352,209.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $346k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-122 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $335k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $293k (15.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $293k (15.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.6% in Dade City — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 670 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,927/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 322% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 454 days — a 12% lower offer ($305k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $292,693 (15.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 454 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.48%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $352,209
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11729 Brae Way	0.13mi	6/3.0	2,463 (0%)	10mo	$333,350	$135	86
11746 Brae Way	0.12mi	6/3.0	2,463 (0%)	11mo	$338,200	$137	85
11697 Brae Way	0.16mi	6/3.0	2,458 (-0%)	11mo	$351,900	$143	83
11990 Brae Way	0.14mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (-0%)	9mo	$335,500	$137	80
12046 Brae Way	0.19mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,451 (-0%)	10mo	$332,000	$135	77
11721 Brae Way	0.14mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	10mo	$337,300	$145	69
11689 Brae Way	0.17mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	10mo	$318,900	$137	68
11678 Brae Way	0.18mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,326 (-6%)	11mo	$344,300	$148	66
11977 Brae Way	0.12mi	5/3.0 (-1)	2,754 (+12%)	11mo	$365,100	$133	61
11713 Brae Way	0.15mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	10mo	$332,050	$157	54
11732 Brae Way	0.13mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	12mo	$331,510	$157	53
11592 Brae Way	0.27mi	5/2.5 (-1)	2,112 (-14%)	8mo	$329,400	$156	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.02% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-64,725
• Equity at exit: $52,516

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-65,926
• Equity at exit: $30,453

Cash invested: $98,619 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33525

• Home prices YoY: -15.4%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 670
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,927 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,847
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$440 /mo · $5,283/yr
• Insurance: −$147
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$615
• Net cashflow: $-122

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,081

Max offer price $334,590

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $122	-5% $0	+0% $-122	+5% $-243	+10% $-365
Rent	-10% $-353	-5% $-237	+0% $-122	+5% $-6	+10% $109
Rate	-1.0pp $56	-0.5pp $-32	base $-122	+0.5pp $-213	+1.0pp $-306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,052
• Closing costs: $10,566
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11357 Brae Way Dade City, FL	6.0	3.0	2463	$2,550	$1.04	0d	1	0.08mi
11413 Brae Way Dade City, FL	5.0	2.5	2326	$2,700	$1.16	25d	1	0.13mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   price $346,440 Active 454 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $346,140 Active 454 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   price $346,140 Active 453 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $345,790 Active 453 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $345,690 Active 452 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $345,690 Active 451 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $345,690 Active 449 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $345,490 Active 445 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $345,490 Active 444 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $345,490 Active 443 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    pricedays on market $345,390 Active 440 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $345,290 Active 439 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $345,290 Active 438 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $348,290 Active 437 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $348,290 Active 436 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,123
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,729
• − Property taxes: −$5,283
• − Insurance: −$1,761
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,810
• − Management: −$2,810
• − Depreciation: −$10,246
• Taxable loss: −$7,516
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,804
• After-tax cash flow: $343/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 21,077
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 21,077
• Household income: $69,068
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 322.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 7% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.48%
• Current HPI: 358.2149
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.02%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B