4808 Forrest Dr · Carlsbad, NM 88220

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · SingleFamily · 215 Days on market

6,173 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the charm of this beautifully remodeled trailer, featuring modern touches and granite accents throughout. This investment property boasts an inviting open floor plan, updated kitchen that includes contemporary cabinetry, and appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. With its thoughtful upgrades and attention to detail, this property is not just a home but a promising investment opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to own this 3 bedroom 2 bath home or investment property.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Updated kitchen
• Granite accents

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• CONTEMPORARY CABINETRY
• GRANITE ACCENTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $229 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $155k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#20 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: commute C-, health & safety C-, schools D.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 156 units permitted in Eddy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Eddy County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 215 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $136,400 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 215 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.33%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-10,520
• Equity at exit: $23,111

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $9,704
• Equity at exit: $13,402

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State New Mexico: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice but with cure rights; relocation assistance in some cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 88220

• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,646 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$194 /mo · $2,325/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $229

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,356

Max offer price $155,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $336	-5% $282	+0% $229	+5% $175	+10% $122
Rent	-10% $99	-5% $164	+0% $229	+5% $294	+10% $359
Rate	-1.0pp $307	-0.5pp $268	base $229	+0.5pp $189	+1.0pp $148

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $155,000 Pending 215 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 215 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 214 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $155,000 Active 212 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 211 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $155,000 Active 209 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 208 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 207 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 206 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $155,000 Active 203 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $155,000 Active 202 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 201 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 200 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 199 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $155,000 Active 198 DOM
16. 2025-12-18
    price $155,000 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully remodeled trailer, featuring modern touches and granite accents throughout. This investment property boasts an inviting open floor plan, updated kitchen that includes contemporary cabinetry, and appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. With its thoughtful upgrades and attention to detail, this property is not just a home but a promising investment opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to own this 3 bedroom 2 bath home or investment property.

17. 2025-12-18
    status Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully remodeled trailer, featuring modern touches and granite accents throughout. This investment property boasts an inviting open floor plan, updated kitchen that includes contemporary cabinetry, and appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. With its thoughtful upgrades and attention to detail, this property is not just a home but a promising investment opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to own this 3 bedroom 2 bath home or investment property.

18. 2025-11-14
    status Pending 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully remodeled trailer, featuring modern touches and granite accents throughout. This investment property boasts an inviting open floor plan, updated kitchen that includes contemporary cabinetry, and appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. With its thoughtful upgrades and attention to detail, this property is not just a home but a promising investment opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to own this 3 bedroom 2 bath home or investment property.

19. 2025-10-10
    listed $159,000 Active 497-char remark

    Show marketing remark (497 chars)

    Discover the charm of this beautifully remodeled trailer, featuring modern touches and granite accents throughout. This investment property boasts an inviting open floor plan, updated kitchen that includes contemporary cabinetry, and appliances, perfect for cooking and entertaining. With its thoughtful upgrades and attention to detail, this property is not just a home but a promising investment opportunity. Don't miss out on the chance to own this 3 bedroom 2 bath home or investment property.

20. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Wow! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is just beautiful! Everything is NEW, completely remodeled. Attention to detail all around. The kitchen is stunning with the new cabinets, tile work and granite countertops not to mention the beautiful fixtures throughout. You’ll appreciate the quality of work when you see it in person. Contact us today for your private tour

21. 2020-10-19
    listed $125,000 364-char remark

    Show marketing remark (364 chars)

    Wow! This 3 bedroom 2 bath home is just beautiful! Everything is NEW, completely remodeled. Attention to detail all around. The kitchen is stunning with the new cabinets, tile work and granite countertops not to mention the beautiful fixtures throughout. You’ll appreciate the quality of work when you see it in person. Contact us today for your private tour

22. 2019-04-24
    soldstatus
23. 2018-03-26
    soldstatus
24. 2007-04-03
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,746
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$2,325
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,580
• − Management: −$1,580
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable income: $295
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$71
• After-tax cash flow: $2,675/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Carlsbad

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #20
• US rank: #7925

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Carlsbad, NM
• County: Eddy County · 58,370 people
• City population: 39,828
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• Population (ZIP): 39,828
• Household income: $78,162
• Rent vs Own: 26.0% rent · 74.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 661.0

Population outlook (Eddy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 65,505 people
• By 2030: 69,797 · +6.6%
• By 2040: 79,191 · +20.9%
• By 2050: 89,199 · +36.2%
• By 2075: 115,829 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 129,336 · +97.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 48% White 46% Two or more races 22% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 24%

Political lean MEDSL · Eddy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.9) · D 21.4% · R 77.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.2pp toward R · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -55.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.9 2020: R+51.8 2016: R+41.6 2012: R+33.5 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -283.72%
• Current HPI: 114.115
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Carlsbad-Artesia, NM
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+24.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-18 Price Changed $155,000 NMMLS
• 2025-12-18 Relisted — NMMLS
• 2025-11-14 Pending — NMMLS
• 2025-10-10 Listed $159,000 NMMLS
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) — NMMLS
• 2020-10-19 Listed $125,000 NMMLS
• 2019-04-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2018-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2007-04-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $113 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.