5044 Raymond Ave · St. Louis, MO 63113

$29,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 13 Days on market

Built 1896 6,351 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks

This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home is ready for a full renovation, presenting an excellent opportunity for a buyer with vision to add significant value and customize the property. This asset is available as part of a one-off purchase or a portfolio deal. Contact the listing agent to explore packaging options with other properties.

Key facts

• 6,351 sq ft lot
• Built 1896
• Listed 13 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $30k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $30k).
• Cap rate 57.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Hamilton Elem. Community Ed. (math 2% / reading 8%, grade F, #1,072 of 1,115 statewide, top 98%, 253 students, 99% FRL); Sumner High (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #520 of 521 statewide, top 100%, 264 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 80% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 58 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 54% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-2.1%/yr); year-one equity from $207 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $641 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-2.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $8k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1896 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $29,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1896 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.36% ✓
• Cap rate: 57.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 183.59%
• DSCR: 9.17
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,472
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5168 Vernon Ave	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,340 (-8%)	8mo	$90,000	$38	64
5059 Cates Ave	0.11mi	3/1.0	2,234 (-12%)	15mo	$15,000	$7	58
5156 Westminster Pl	0.57mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,600 (+2%)	18mo	$729,000	$280	47
5211 Ridge	0.46mi	2/5.0 (-1)	2,432 (-4%)	10mo	$60,000	$25	46
5362 Page Blvd	0.63mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,432 (-4%)	21mo	$64,900	$27	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-2.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 10.30×
• Total profit: $77,855
• Equity at exit: $5,611

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 21.78×
• Total profit: $173,953
• Equity at exit: $4,609

Cash invested: $8,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63113

• Home prices YoY: -2.0%
• Active inventory: 58
• Price-to-rent: 1.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,901 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$157
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $619/yr
• Insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $1,281

Break-even live

Break-even rent $280

Max offer price $29,900

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,298	-5% $1,289	+0% $1,281	+5% $1,272	+10% $1,264
Rent	-10% $1,131	-5% $1,206	+0% $1,281	+5% $1,356	+10% $1,431
Rate	-1.0pp $1,296	-0.5pp $1,288	base $1,281	+0.5pp $1,273	+1.0pp $1,265

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $7,475
• Closing costs: $897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5096 Minerva Ave Unit C St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1800	$1,395	$0.78	45d	1	0.30mi
1416 N Euclid Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	2702	$1,200	$0.44	45d	1	0.43mi
5345 Wells Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2254	$1,295	$0.57	45d	1	0.68mi
275 Union Blvd St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–3.0	1317	$4,686	$3.56	0d	63	0.89mi
4615 Lindell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1251	$2,075	$1.66	9d	6	0.95mi
4605 Lindell Blvd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0–3.0	1868	$2,398	$1.28	9d	3	0.97mi
100 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1211	$7,099	$5.86	45d	84	0.98mi
100 N Kingshighway Blvd Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0–2.0	1171	$6,995	$5.97	0d	79	0.98mi
5544 Waterman Blvd Unit 2E Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1813	$2,200	$1.21	0d	1	1.01mi
10 S Kingshighway Blvd St. Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	2178	$2,500	$1.15	19d	1	1.08mi
5223 Ashland Ave Unit 2 St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	2200	$1,450	$0.66	45d	1	1.37mi
5223 Ashland Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	2200	$1,250	$0.57	45d	1	1.37mi
404 N Sarah St Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.5	1772	$2,600	$1.47	45d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2025-12-16
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-03
   listed $29,900 Active
3. 2025-02-21
   status Pending
4. 2025-01-06
   listed $209,900 Active
5. 2008-07-01
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $619 · $52/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,811
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,675
• − Property taxes: −$619
• − Insurance: −$150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,825
• − Management: −$1,825
• − Depreciation: −$870
• Taxable income: $15,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,804
• After-tax cash flow: $11,567/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• City population: 283,259
• Population (ZIP): 11,610

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 91% White 6% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -2.14%
• Current HPI: 107.1335
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-85.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Listed $29,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-21 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-06 Listed $209,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2024): $619 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.