100 Aniak · Holiday Lakes, TX 77515

$178,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,136 sqft · SingleFamily · 213 Days on market

Built 1972 0.33 ac lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $172k · at est. · waterfront ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.6/30.0
• DSCR +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

*WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Custom cabinets
• Lakefront cottage

Tags

• WATERFRONT PROPERTY
• LAKEFRONT COTTAGE
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• CRAFTSMAN-STYLE CEILING
• GRANITE COUNTER TOPS
• CUSTOM CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $269 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (5.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $157k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 55/100 on livability (#1,344 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Angleton ISD (suburban): math 36% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #375 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Rancho Isabella El (math 42% / reading 47%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 418 students, 68% FRL); Angleton J H School (math 26% / reading 41%, grade F, #911 of 1,662 statewide, top 56%, 1,561 students, 68% FRL); Angleton H S (math 22% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 2,066 students, 67% FRL).
• Market conditions: 932 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 213 days — a 12% lower offer ($157k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $156,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 213 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.48%
• DSCR: 1.29
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $172,318
• List price: $178,000
• Delta: 3.30%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 9 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Austin St	0.46mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,250 (+10%)	10mo	$205,000	$164	45
3790 County Road 30	1.49mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,184 (+4%)	18mo	$259,900	$220	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.76×
• Total profit: $-11,785
• Equity at exit: $26,540

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $11,474
• Equity at exit: $15,390

Cash invested: $49,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77515

• Home prices YoY: -5.1%
• Active inventory: 932
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,676 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$933
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $567/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $269

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $178,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $370	-5% $320	+0% $269	+5% $219	+10% $168
Rent	-10% $137	-5% $203	+0% $269	+5% $335	+10% $402
Rate	-1.0pp $359	-0.5pp $314	base $269	+0.5pp $223	+1.0pp $176

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,500
• Closing costs: $5,340
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
111 Spur Holiday Lakes, TX	3.0	2.0	1280	$825	$0.64	4d	1	0.08mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $178,000 Active 213 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $178,000 Active 210 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $178,000 Active 209 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $178,000 Active 208 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $178,000 Active 207 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $178,000 Active 205 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $178,000 Active 201 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $178,000 Active 200 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $178,000 Active 199 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $178,000 Active 196 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $178,000 Active 195 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $178,000 Active 194 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $178,000 Price Change 193 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $178,000 Price Change 192 DOM
15. 2026-05-02
    price $179,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

16. 2026-03-10
    price $180,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

17. 2026-03-05
    price $181,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

18. 2026-02-08
    price $182,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

19. 2026-01-08
    price $183,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

20. 2025-12-12
    price $184,000 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

21. 2025-11-20
    listed $185,000 New 463-char remark

    Show marketing remark (463 chars)

    *WATERFRONT PROPERTY* Enjoy sunsets overlooking at this lakefront cottage offering over quarter acre of land. Home has been completely remodeled offering open floor plan featuring craftsman-style ceiling, granite counter tops, custom cabinets, new roof installed 2023. Garage has been converted to a MIL Suite with its own private Shower. (Please note this is a Waterfront property "stilt house")*Buyer to verify/confirm measurements and school options.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $567 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,257 · $271/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,691/yr (+$224/mo · 474.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,111
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,971
• − Property taxes: −$567
• − Insurance: −$890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,609
• − Management: −$1,609
• − Depreciation: −$5,178
• Taxable income: $287
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$69
• After-tax cash flow: $3,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Angleton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808310
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $55,670
• Composite: 35.01/100
• National rank: #5046
• State rank: #375 of 826 in TX

Livability — Holiday Lakes

• Score: 55/100
• State rank: #1344
• US rank: #23175

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holiday Lakes, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,088
• Household income: $88,787
• Rent vs Own: 25.4% rent · 74.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 785.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 55% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 28%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -15.59%
• Current HPI: 288.7286
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $179,000 LERA
• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $180,000 LERA
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $181,000 LERA
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $182,000 LERA
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $183,000 LERA
• 2025-12-12 Price Changed $184,000 LERA
• 2025-11-20 Listed $185,000 LERA

Property tax history

-1.9%/yr

Latest (2019): $567 · -5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.