285 Sorrel Ct · Stephenville, TX 76401

$195,000

6 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,052 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 186 Days on market

Built 2002 0.54 ac lot $95/sqft · 68% below area ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the perfect blend of convenience and charm with this charming six bedroom, two and a half bath manufactured doublewide home just outside of Dublin, TX. This home features central heat and air, laminate hardwood flooring and a fireplace for those winter nights. Nestled on a generous half acre lot, this property offers ample space for living, entertaining and enjoying the outdoors.

Key facts

• Central heat and air
• Half acre lot
• Fireplace

Tags

• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR
• LAMINATE HARDWOOD FLOORING
• FIREPLACE
• HALF ACRE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 6-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $195k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $275 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.1% in Stephenville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#124 in TX, #3,840 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, commute F, employment D-.
• Stephenville ISD (town): math 53% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #191 of 826 in TX (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 383 active listings in the ZIP; 110 units permitted in Erath County in 2024 (61 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Erath County population projected at +55% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 186 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $13k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $171,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 186 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.05%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $608,616
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: -67.96%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.64×
• Total profit: $-19,510
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,516
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76401

• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,886 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,323/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $275

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,537

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-09
   statusdays on market $195,000 Pending 186 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 185 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 184 DOM
4. 2026-06-03
   days on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 180 DOM
5. 2026-06-02
   days on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 179 DOM
6. 2026-06-01
   days on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 178 DOM
7. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $195,000 Active Option Contract 177 DOM
8. 2026-05-30
   days on market $195,000 Active 176 DOM
9. 2026-02-14
   price $199,900 393-char remark

   Show marketing remark (393 chars)

   Discover the perfect blend of convenience and charm with this charming six bedroom, two and a half bath manufactured doublewide home just outside of Dublin, TX. This home features central heat and air, laminate hardwood flooring and a fireplace for those winter nights. Nestled on a generous half acre lot, this property offers ample space for living, entertaining and enjoying the outdoors.

10. 2025-12-02
    listed $208,000 Active 393-char remark

    Show marketing remark (393 chars)

    Discover the perfect blend of convenience and charm with this charming six bedroom, two and a half bath manufactured doublewide home just outside of Dublin, TX. This home features central heat and air, laminate hardwood flooring and a fireplace for those winter nights. Nestled on a generous half acre lot, this property offers ample space for living, entertaining and enjoying the outdoors.

11. 2025-12-01
    historical
12. 2025-10-17
    price $212,000
13. 2025-08-19
    price $219,000
14. 2025-05-19
    price $230,000
15. 2025-04-03
    price $240,000
16. 2025-01-02
    listed $250,000 Active
17. 2021-03-17
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,323 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,245/yr (+$187/mo · 169.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,626
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,323
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,810
• − Management: −$1,810
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable income: $112
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$27
• After-tax cash flow: $3,278/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Stephenville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4841520
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $39,565
• Composite: 42.23/100
• National rank: #3283
• State rank: #191 of 826 in TX

Livability — Stephenville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #124
• US rank: #3840

Category grades

Amenities C Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Erath County · 31,375 people
• City population: 31,375
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• Population (ZIP): 31,375
• Household income: $61,210
• Rent vs Own: 44.1% rent · 55.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1758.0

Population outlook (Erath County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,437 people
• By 2030: 55,510 · +10.1%
• By 2040: 66,379 · +31.6%
• By 2050: 77,981 · +54.6%
• By 2075: 109,727 · +117.6%
• By 2100: 132,574 · +162.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 8% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erath

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.0) · D 15.7% · R 83.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: -54.5pp · 2024: -68.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.0 2020: R+63.9 2016: R+65.5 2012: R+67.1 2008: R+54.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -133.71%
• Current HPI: 234.4986
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.07%
• Metro: Stephenville, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Price Changed $199,900 NTREIS
• 2025-12-02 Listed $208,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-10-17 Price Changed $212,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-19 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-19 Price Changed $230,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-03 Price Changed $240,000 NTREIS
• 2025-01-02 Listed $250,000 NTREIS
• 2021-03-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+28.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,323 · -8.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.