127 Black Point Rd #31 · Niantic, CT 06357

$179,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1971 $326/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

End unit, quiet complex in crescent beach. Can not be rented until owned for 2 years.Needs a cosmetic makeover, bathroom, paint,carpeting. Sewer balance to be assumed by buyer.Slider to patio on first floor, slider to deck on second floor. N second floor.

Key facts

• $326 HOA
• Parking
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Professional off-site property management; Pets allowed with restrictions (ask about pet policy); Renting allowed (per encumbrances/restrictions)
• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee; HOA covers water, sewer, trash pickup, snow removal, grounds maintenance, tennis, and property management; Community amenities include tennis and basketball courts

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Condominium in a multi-unit complex (Black Point Farms); End unit; Yellow exterior color
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Aluminum siding; Balcony; Deck; Patio; Tennis court access; Level lot; Beach rights

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Radiant heat (electric); Wall air-conditioning unit; 40-gallon electric hot water tank
• Interior features: Two-level unit; No basement
• Laundry & utility: Coin-operated common laundry (short walk from unit)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $983 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $179k).
• Cap rate 12.9% vs local median 3.0% in Niantic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#35 in CT, #2,462 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A; Watch: cost of living D+, amenities F, commute F.
• East Lyme School District (rural): math 55% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #42 of 153 in CT (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Lyme High School (math 57% / reading 79%, grade B, #25 of 194 statewide, top 12%, 966 students, 20% FRL).
• Market conditions: 61 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($93k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $179k implies a 99% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.76% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.53%
• DSCR: 2.05
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.67×
• Total profit: $33,805
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.21×
• Total profit: $110,900
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06357

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,146 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax from tax record: −$163 /mo · $1,958/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$326
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $983

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,902

Max offer price $179,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
61 Old Black Point Rd Niantic, CT	1.0	1.0	798	$5,000	$6.27	21d	1	0.51mi
2 Bidwell St Niantic, CT	2.0	1.0	1032	$2,600	$2.52	43d	1	0.79mi
157 W Main St Unit 4 Niantic, CT	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	13d	1	0.84mi
344 Main St Unit 207 Niantic, CT	2.0	1.0	798	$3,200	$4.01	13d	1	0.99mi
344 Main St Unit 201 Niantic, CT	1.0	1.0	645	$2,700	$4.19	13d	1	0.99mi
344 Main St Unit 202 Niantic, CT	1.0	1.0	572	$2,500	$4.37	13d	1	0.99mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $326 · $3,912/yr
• Likely covers: sewer
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-10
   listed $179,000 Active
3. 2026-04-08
   historical $179,000
4. 2004-09-16
   soldstatus $90,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   End unit, quiet complex in crescent beach. Can not be rented until owned for 2 years.Needs a cosmetic makeover, bathroom, paint,carpeting. Sewer balance to be assumed by buyer.Slider to patio on first floor, slider to deck on second floor. N second floor.

5. 2004-09-15
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2004-07-02
   listed $99,000 257-char remark

   Show marketing remark (257 chars)

   End unit, quiet complex in crescent beach. Can not be rented until owned for 2 years.Needs a cosmetic makeover, bathroom, paint,carpeting. Sewer balance to be assumed by buyer.Slider to patio on first floor, slider to deck on second floor. N second floor.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,958 · $163/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: +$936/yr (+$78/mo · 47.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,752
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$1,958
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,020
• − Management: −$3,020
• − HOA: −$3,912
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable income: $9,712
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,331
• After-tax cash flow: $9,464/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Lyme School District
• NCES district ID: 0901320
• Math proficiency: 55% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $81,441
• Composite: 55.28/100
• National rank: #1264
• State rank: #42 of 153 in CT

Livability — Niantic

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #2462

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New London County · 147,197 people
• City population: 11,332
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• Population (ZIP): 11,332
• Household income: $93,026
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 329.0

Population outlook (Southeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 293,442

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Asian 6% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+13.0) · D 55.6% · R 42.6% · Other 1.8%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.97%
• Current HPI: 313.6313
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+80.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — Smart MLS
• 2026-04-10 Listed $179,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-04-08 Coming Soon $179,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-09-16 Sold (MLS) $90,000 Smart MLS
• 2004-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2004-07-02 Listed $99,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.7%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,958 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.