445 Crawley Ln · Lake Murray of Richland, SC 29036

$355,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,677 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2012 8,276 sqft lot $47/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Public Open House Sat 2/28/26 11:30-1:30!!! Charming Home in Desirable Wescott Ridge! Welcome home to this beautifully maintained property featuring a bright and airy floor plan that flows effortlessly! The kitchen boasts granite countertops, a breakfast bar, custom tile backsplash, and opens to the spacious great room with a cozy gas fireplace—perfect for entertaining. A formal dining room adds an elegant touch for gatherings. The owner’s retreat on the main level offers a relaxing escape with a large ensuite bath featuring a separate shower, soaking tub, and walk-in closet. Upstairs, you’ll find four oversized guest bedrooms—all with large walk-in closets—and

Key facts

• Cozy gas fireplace
• Formal dining room
• Large ensuite bath

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• BREAKFAST BAR
• CUSTOM TILE BACKSPLASH
• COZY GAS FIREPLACE
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• LARGE ENSUITE BATH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $355k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-28 ($-340/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (1.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $281k (20.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $281k (20.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#102 in SC) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Lexington 05 (suburban): math 47% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #5 of 80 in SC (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Lake Murray Elementary (math 78% / reading 82%, grade A+, #4 of 597 statewide, top 1%, 809 students, 18% FRL); Chapin Middle (math 50% / reading 57%, grade C+, #29 of 229 statewide, top 13%, 991 students, 27% FRL); Chapin High (math 82% / reading 91%, grade A, #7 of 196 statewide, top 4%, 1,615 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 27% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 73% at this address vs 51% district-wide (+22 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lexington 05 average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 443 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 3,472 units permitted in Richland County in 2024 (1,096 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Richland County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 58% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,822 (20.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.79% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.20%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.34%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-59,414
• Equity at exit: $52,932

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-54,404
• Equity at exit: $30,694

Cash invested: $99,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State South Carolina: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 29036

• Active inventory: 443
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,808 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,862
• Tax from tax record: −$190 /mo · $2,283/yr
• Insurance: −$148
• HOA: −$47
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$590
• Net cashflow: $-28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,844

Max offer price $349,995

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $173	-5% $72	+0% $-28	+5% $-129	+10% $-229
Rent	-10% $-250	-5% $-139	+0% $-28	+5% $83	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $150	-0.5pp $62	base $-28	+0.5pp $-120	+1.0pp $-214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $88,750
• Closing costs: $10,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1213 Portrait Hill Dr Chapin, SC	4.0	2.5	2472	$2,695	$1.09	23d	1	1.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $47 · $564/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   historical Active - Contingent
3. 2026-02-05
   listed $355,000 Active
4. 2026-01-11
   price $359,400
5. 2025-12-08
   price $364,400
6. 2025-10-24
   price $367,400
7. 2025-10-24
   listed $267,400 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast SC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,283 · $190/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 58% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,699
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,886
• − Property taxes: −$2,283
• − Insurance: −$1,775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,696
• − Management: −$2,696
• − HOA: −$564
• − Depreciation: −$10,327
• Taxable loss: −$6,528
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,567
• After-tax cash flow: $1,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lexington 05
• NCES district ID: 4502820
• Math proficiency: 47% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $67,732
• Composite: 45.28/100
• National rank: #2656
• State rank: #5 of 80 in SC

Livability — Lake Murray of Richland

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #102
• US rank: #10903

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lexington County · 232,571 people
• City population: 179
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• Population (ZIP): 26,620
• Household income: $113,986
• Rent vs Own: 8.1% rent · 91.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 212.0

Population outlook (Richland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 459,667 people
• By 2030: 487,524 · +6.1%
• By 2040: 542,035 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 595,371 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 732,998 · +59.5%
• By 2100: 820,415 · +78.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Asian 5% Two or more races 4% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Richland

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.6) · D 66.4% · R 31.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.7pp toward D · 2008: 28.9pp · 2024: 34.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.6 2020: D+38.3 2016: D+32.9 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+28.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -134.76%
• Current HPI: 248.3807
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Columbia, SC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.51%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in SC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Packaging	1	$7B

Price history

+32.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-03-24 Contingent — Consolidated MLS
• 2026-02-05 Listed $355,000 Consolidated MLS
• 2026-01-11 Price Changed $359,400 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-12-08 Price Changed $364,400 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-10-24 Price Changed $367,400 Consolidated MLS
• 2025-10-24 Listed $267,400 Consolidated MLS

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,283 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.