1896 Cr 25 · Water Valley, MS 38965

$70,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 110 Days on market

Built 1999 0.47 ac lot ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 0.47 acre lot
• Built 1999
• Listed 110 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $816 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $64k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#233 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, crime F.
• Water Valley School District (town): math 29% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #61 of 130 in MS (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 24 units permitted in Yalobusha County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $484 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Yalobusha County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 110 days — a 9% lower offer ($64k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $63,700 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 110 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 49.93%
• DSCR: 3.22
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.07×
• Total profit: $40,623
• Equity at exit: $10,437

10-year hold

• IRR: 53.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.22×
• Total profit: $102,358
• Equity at exit: $6,052

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38965

• Home prices YoY: -22.5%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $816

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-29
   status Pending
2. 2025-12-09
   listed $70,000 Active
3. 2025-09-08
   status Active
4. 2025-09-08
   price $70,000
5. 2025-06-15
   status Active
6. 2025-06-08
   status Pending
7. 2025-04-01
   price $72,000
8. 2025-01-13
   listed $77,500 Active
9. 2024-08-13
   price $77,500
10. 2024-06-26
    price $79,900
11. 2024-06-18
    listed $84,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,736
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $9,221
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,213
• After-tax cash flow: $7,573/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Water Valley School District
• NCES district ID: 2804500
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $36,107
• Composite: 26.92/100
• National rank: #7083
• State rank: #61 of 130 in MS

Livability — Water Valley

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #233
• US rank: #19538

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Yalobusha County · 8,963 people
• City population: 8,963
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• Population (ZIP): 8,963
• Household income: $58,258
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 113.0

Population outlook (Yalobusha County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 12,062 people
• By 2030: 11,811 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 11,297 · -6.3%
• By 2050: 10,771 · -10.7%
• By 2075: 9,679 · -19.8%
• By 2100: 8,400 · -30.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Black 30% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Serbian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Yalobusha

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.9) · D 38.9% · R 59.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.9pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.9 2020: R+13.6 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+4.4 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.65%
• Current HPI: 167.4446
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Oxford, MS
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-17.6% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-29 Pending — NCMBR
• 2025-12-09 Listed $70,000 NCMBR
• 2025-09-08 Relisted — NCMBR
• 2025-09-08 Price Changed $70,000 NCMBR
• 2025-06-15 Relisted — NCMBR
• 2025-06-08 Pending — NCMBR
• 2025-04-01 Price Changed $72,000 NCMBR
• 2025-01-13 Listed $77,500 NCMBR
• 2024-08-13 Price Changed $77,500 NCMBR
• 2024-06-26 Price Changed $79,900 NCMBR
• 2024-06-18 Listed $84,900 NCMBR