1312 Baez Way · The Villages, FL 32162

$380,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,044 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 9 Days on market

Built 2000 8,734 sqft lot Est $446k · 15% under $266/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• Cash flow +12.3/30.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

PAID BOND! Don't miss this beautifully maintained 3-bedroom, 2-bath home located in one of the most sought-after 55+ communities in Central Florida—The Villages Sumter subdivision near all the squares ! Situated on a desirable corner lot, this home offers extra space, privacy, and a comfortable Florida lifestyle. Featuring a popular split floor plan, this residence provides the perfect balance of functionality and privacy for both homeowners and guests. Step inside to find fresh interior paint, attractive wood flooring, and a bright, welcoming atmosphere throughout. The updated primary bathroom adds a modern touch, while the spacious layout makes everyday living and entertaining a bre

Key facts

• Split floor plan
• Corner lot
• 8,734 sq ft lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SCREENED-IN BACK PORCH
• UPDATED PRIMARY BATHROOM
• SPLIT FLOOR PLAN

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include community mailbox and sidewalks
• Financial info: Other annual assessment amount: $751; Total annual fees: $3,199; Total monthly fees: $266.58; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA: The Villages; Monthly HOA fee of $204 (includes 24-hour guard, common area taxes, pool, recreational facilities); Association amenities: clubhouse, fitness center, gated community, golf course, park, pickleball courts, playground, pool, racquetball, recreation facilities, shuffleboard courts, tennis courts, trails; Senior community; Pets allowed (cats and dogs); Golf carts permitted; No truck/RV/motorcycle parking

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Security: 24-hour guard (HOA amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected; Phone available; Sewer connected; Water connected; Sprinkler meter
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; East-facing entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Completed condition; Built on a 0.2 acre lot
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Irrigation equipment; Asphalt/paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Cooktop; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator; Solid wood cabinets
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Attic ventilator; Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Open floorplan; Kitchen and family room combined; Living room and dining room combined; Solid wood cabinets; Split bedroom layout; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room; Electric dryer hookup; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $380k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-70 ($-836/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $368k (3.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $330k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $330k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A, employment B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wildwood Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 940 students, 76% FRL); South Sumter Middle School (math 55% / reading 54%, grade B-, #183 of 571 statewide, top 34%, 897 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 551 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,300/mo this rent would consume 53% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $329,992 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.07%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.79%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $445,592
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2450 Merida Cir	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,851 (-9%)	3mo	$350,000	$189	79
2403 Tamarindo Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	2,179 (+7%)	1mo	$500,000	$229	78
1305 LA Estrellita Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,817 (-11%)	0mo	$290,000	$160	74
1422 Segovia Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	2,044 (0%)	1mo	$377,224	$185	69
1302 Fortaleza Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,798 (-12%)	3mo	$615,000	$342	69
1311 Carolina Ct	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,162 (+6%)	2mo	$509,900	$236	69
1404 Valparaiso St	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	2mo	$335,000	$177	64
1506 Canales Ln	0.73mi	3/2.0	2,066 (+1%)	2mo	$450,000	$218	62
1305 Carolina Ct	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,240 (+10%)	3mo	$498,000	$222	62
1426 LA Hermosa Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,892 (-7%)	3mo	$412,500	$218	56
1428 Segovia Pl	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,860 (-9%)	6mo	$345,000	$185	49
2574 Caribe Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,744 (-15%)	4mo	$415,000	$238	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-62,851
• Equity at exit: $56,659

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-47,228
• Equity at exit: $32,855

Cash invested: $106,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 551
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,300 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,993
• Tax from tax record: −$260 /mo · $3,114/yr
• Insurance: −$158
• HOA: −$266
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$693
• Net cashflow: $-70

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,388

Max offer price $367,690

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $145	-5% $38	+0% $-70	+5% $-177	+10% $-285
Rent	-10% $-330	-5% $-200	+0% $-70	+5% $61	+10% $191
Rate	-1.0pp $122	-0.5pp $27	base $-70	+0.5pp $-168	+1.0pp $-268

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $95,000
• Closing costs: $11,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	23d	1	0.76mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	23d	1	0.76mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	23d	1	0.91mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	23d	1	0.94mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	23d	1	0.96mi
17713 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,000	$1.38	23d	1	1.18mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	23d	1	1.21mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	23d	1	1.22mi
17582 SE 96th Ct Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1652	$1,750	$1.06	23d	1	1.25mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	23d	10	1.37mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	23d	1	1.38mi
17522 SE 95th Cir Summerfield, FL	2.0	2.0	1884	$1,875	$1.00	23d	1	1.45mi
13904 County Road 109D Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,550	$0.99	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $266 · $3,192/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $380,000 Active 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $380,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $380,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $380,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $380,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $380,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 693-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   listed $380,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,114 · $260/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,154 · $263/mo
• Expected delta: +$40/yr (+$3/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,599
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,286
• − Property taxes: −$3,114
• − Insurance: −$1,900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,168
• − Management: −$3,168
• − HOA: −$3,192
• − Depreciation: −$11,055
• Taxable loss: −$7,284
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,748
• After-tax cash flow: $912/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Listed $380,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,114 · +16.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.