13115 140th Ave NW · Stansberry Lake, WA 98329

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured public records · 35 Days on market

Built 1971 0.34 ac lot $46/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Unlock the potential of this 15,000 sq ft lot in the desirable Lake of the Woods community in Gig Harbor, Washington. Being sold cash-out, as-is, this property offers mature timber and a rare opportunity to invest, renovate, or reimagine. Currently situated on the lot is an 840 sq ft singlewide manufactured home featuring 2 bedrooms and 1.75 baths. Whether you're looking for a project, land value, or future development potential, this property delivers flexibility and upside. Conveniently located with an easy commute to shopping, dining, entertainment, and major employment. Cash Out As-Is, Where-Is.

Key facts

• Mature timber
• 15
• 000 sq ft lot

Tags

• 15
• 000 SQ FT LOT
• LAKE OF THE WOODS COMMUNITY
• MATURE TIMBER
• FUTURE DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $527 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#358 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• Peninsula School District (suburban): math 61% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #21 of 291 in WA (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 19% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Vaughn Elementary School (327 students, 42% FRL); Key Peninsula Middle School (469 students, 42% FRL); Peninsula High School (1,372 students, 28% FRL) — zoned schools average 38% FRL vs 19% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,209 units permitted in Pierce County in 2024 (1,269 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pierce County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.13%
• DSCR: 1.72
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $309,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13115 140th Ave NW	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (0%)	0mo	$120,000	$143	95
13618 130th St NW	0.23mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (+10%)	18mo	$340,000	$368	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.28×
• Total profit: $10,936
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.35×
• Total profit: $52,977
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98329

• Active inventory: 96
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,950 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$175 /mo · $2,100/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$46
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $527

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,283

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $624	-5% $575	+0% $527	+5% $479	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $373	-5% $450	+0% $527	+5% $604	+10% $681
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $563	base $527	+0.5pp $491	+1.0pp $454

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14214 Holly Burn Ln NW Gig Harbor, WA	3.0	1.0	1040	$1,950	$1.88	26d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $46 · $552/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-04
   listed $140,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥87°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$2,100
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,872
• − Management: −$1,872
• − HOA: −$552
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $4,389
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,053
• After-tax cash flow: $5,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Peninsula School District
• NCES district ID: 5306690
• Math proficiency: 61% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $76,796
• Composite: 60.35/100
• National rank: #1718
• State rank: #21 of 291 in WA

Livability — Stansberry Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #358
• US rank: #13660

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Stansberry Lake, WA
• Population (ZIP): 11,379

Population outlook (Pierce County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 956,648 people
• By 2030: 1,010,862 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 1,113,170 · +16.4%
• By 2050: 1,206,524 · +26.1%
• By 2075: 1,436,425 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 1,563,654 · +63.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pierce

• 2024 margin: D (+10.8) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.4pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: 10.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.8 2020: D+11.2 2016: D+7.5 2012: D+11.0 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -203.87%
• Current HPI: 377.3837
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2026): $108 · +15.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.