2009 Windbreak Dr #3 · Rosamond, CA 93560

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,231 sqft · Manufactured public records · 41 Days on market

Built 2005 Est $123k · 6% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 it’s close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

Key facts

• Central ac
• Spacious kitchen
• Indoor laundry room

Tags

• OPEN AND AIRY FLOOR PLAN
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• CENTRAL AC
• FULLY FENCED LOT
• OUTDOOR STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $975 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Recommended offer: $126k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 4.3% in Rosamond — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,178 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Southern Kern Unified (town): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #387 of 517 in CA (top 75%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 458 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($77k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (2.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 5→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $126,100 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.91% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.26%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $123,100
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2009 Windbreak Dr #3	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,231 (0%)	0mo	$130,000	$106	100
2012 Windharp Dr #46	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	8mo	$117,450	$102	80
2104 Windbreak Drive #18 #18	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	5mo	$110,000	$82	78
2116 Windflow Drive #66 #66	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	9mo	$98,950	$74	72
2000 Windcurrent Dr #147	0.20mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+9%)	8mo	$125,000	$93	69
2025 Windbreak Dr #7	0.02mi	3/2.0	1,340 (+9%)	21mo	$133,000	$99	66
1550 20th St W #83	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	3mo	$115,000	$100	63
1550 W 20th Street West #53	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-2%)	17mo	$155,000	$128	59
1801 Marie Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,152 (-6%)	18mo	$180,000	$156	57
1550 20th St W #69	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,243 (+1%)	15mo	$125,000	$101	57
2009 Westerly Dr #79	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-14%)	11mo	$95,000	$90	55
1550 20th Street West #55	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-14%)	4mo	$98,950	$94	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.4% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $73,778
• Equity at exit: $54,149

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.6%
• Equity multiple: 5.97×
• Total profit: $180,949
• Equity at exit: $80,245

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93560

• Home prices YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 458
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,480 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,478/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $975

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,246

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 56%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1943 Pengilley Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1379	$2,600	$1.89	1d	1	0.19mi
2051 Candice Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1345	$2,395	$1.78	15d	1	0.40mi
2541 Diamond St Unit 3 Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,200	$1.71	1d	1	0.65mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1475	$2,000	$1.36	10d	1	0.73mi
1838 Center St Unit A Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.5	1495	$2,000	$1.34	1d	1	0.73mi
2821 Desert St Unit C Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,795	$1.84	1d	1	0.83mi
2776 Sycamore Ave Rosamond, CA	2.0	1.0	800	$1,175	$1.47	2d	1	1.04mi
3172 Shelley St Rosamond, CA	4.0	2.0	1192	$2,300	$1.93	22d	1	1.16mi
3424 Brabham Ave Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1364	$2,150	$1.58	43d	1	1.30mi
3317 Dale Ct Rosamond, CA	3.0	2.0	1330	$800	$0.60	1d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-07
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-31
   price $130,000
3. 2026-03-16
   price $135,000
4. 2026-02-25
   listed $144,900 Active
5. 2024-11-01
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed Sale 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

6. 2024-11-01
   soldstatus $130,000 Closed 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

7. 2024-10-11
   status Pending Sale 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

8. 2024-10-11
   status Pending 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

9. 2024-09-05
   listed $135,000 Active 486-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

10. 2024-09-05
    listed $135,000 Active 489-char remark

    Show marketing remark (489 chars)

    Charming manufactured home in family-friendly Tradewinds Mobile home Estates. Well maintained and has only been occupied by the original owners. The gated lot is perfect for pets and small children. Located in space #3 making it close to guest parking and you have no rear neighbors. Enjoy family get togethers in the community clubhouse, complete with pool and spa area. The home is move-in ready and waiting for a new family to make new memories. Washer/dryer included and new microwave.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,478 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone A · 76% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,755
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,478
• − Insurance: −$2,152
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,380
• − Management: −$2,380
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $10,300
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,472
• After-tax cash flow: $9,223/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southern Kern Unified
• NCES district ID: 0637620
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $54,523
• Composite: 22.5/100
• National rank: #8093
• State rank: #387 of 517 in CA

Livability — Rosamond

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1178
• US rank: #25952

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rosamond, CA
• County: Kern County · 710,371 people
• City population: 22,119
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• Population (ZIP): 22,119
• Household income: $77,431
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 425.0

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 45% White 32% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Asian 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Italian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• Current HPI: 403.7206
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bakersfield, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-3.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-07 Pending — AVMLS
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $130,000 AVMLS
• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $135,000 AVMLS
• 2026-02-25 Listed $144,900 AVMLS
• 2024-11-01 Sold (MLS) $130,000 AVMLS
• 2024-11-01 Sold (MLS) $130,000 CRMLS
• 2024-10-11 Pending — CRMLS
• 2024-10-11 Pending — AVMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $135,000 AVMLS
• 2024-09-05 Listed $135,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+17.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,478 · +29.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.