403 Walnut St · Dowagiac, MI 49047

$99,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 859 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 1890 8,723 sqft lot $115/sqft · at area comps Est $136k · 27% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This traditional 2 story home has 1 bedroom upstairs with an additional loft area ,1 bathroom on the main floor, has a formal dining room space, main floor laundry, a nice sized living room, and an attached garage for convenient entry to the kitchen. There is a bonus room on the main floor that could be an additional bedroom. The basement can be accessed from the back porch/laundry or from the backyard.

Key facts

• Basement access
• Formal dining room
• Attached garage

Tags

• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• ATTACHED GARAGE
• BASEMENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $99k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $93k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 4.8% in Dowagiac — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#243 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, schools F, crime F.
• Dowagiac Union School District (town): math 19% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #430 of 540 in MI (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 85 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 128 units permitted in Cass County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Cass County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($93k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $93,060 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.25% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 16.06%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $136,418
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -27.43%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 9 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
503 W High St	0.15mi	3/1.0	913 (+6%)	19mo	$175,000	$192	67
432 Chestnut St	0.08mi	2/1.0 (-1)	974 (+13%)	9mo	$130,000	$133	62
204 E High St	0.41mi	3/1.0	940 (+9%)	6mo	$88,000	$94	60
409 Spruce St	0.33mi	2/1.0 (-1)	764 (-11%)	8mo	$120,000	$157	55
217 Andrew St	0.48mi	2/1.0 (-1)	760 (-12%)	3mo	$50,000	$66	51
204 Clinton St	0.70mi	2/1.0 (-1)	882 (+3%)	9mo	$95,000	$108	50
109 Hamilton St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	801 (-7%)	9mo	$99,000	$124	47
303 2nd Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	910 (+6%)	20mo	$130,000	$143	46
608 Spruce St	0.31mi	2/2.5 (-1)	975 (+14%)	21mo	$170,000	$174	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.27×
• Total profit: $7,551
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.33×
• Total profit: $36,877
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49047

• Active inventory: 85
• Price-to-rent: 6.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,239 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $573/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$260
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $770

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29509 Amerihost Dr Dowagiac, MI	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,310	$1.37	43d	8	1.00mi
550 Riverside Dr Unit Two Bedroom Dowagiac, MI	2.0	1.0	808	$1,162	$1.44	43d	1	1.14mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 90 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 85 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 84 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 81 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 80 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 79 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,000 Active 78 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 74 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 73 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 72 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 71 DOM
16. 2026-03-18
    listed $99,000 Active 408-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This traditional 2 story home has 1 bedroom upstairs with an additional loft area , 1 bathroom on the main floor, has a formal dining room space, main floor laundry, a nice sized living room, and an attached garage for convenient entry to the kitchen. There is a bonus room on the main floor that could be an additional bedroom. The basement can be accessed from the back porch/laundry or from the backyard.

17. 2026-03-18
    listed $99,000 Active 407-char remark

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This traditional 2 story home has 1 bedroom upstairs with an additional loft area , 1 bathroom on the main floor, has a formal dining room space, main floor laundry, a nice sized living room, and an attached garage for convenient entry to the kitchen. There is a bonus room on the main floor that could be an additional bedroom. The basement can be accessed from the back porch/laundry or from the backyard.

18. 2026-03-18
    listed $99,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (407 chars)

    This traditional 2 story home has 1 bedroom upstairs with an additional loft area , 1 bathroom on the main floor, has a formal dining room space, main floor laundry, a nice sized living room, and an attached garage for convenient entry to the kitchen. There is a bonus room on the main floor that could be an additional bedroom. The basement can be accessed from the back porch/laundry or from the backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $573 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,049 · $87/mo
• Expected delta: +$476/yr (+$40/mo · 83.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,871
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$573
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,190
• − Management: −$1,190
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $2,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$720
• After-tax cash flow: $3,731/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dowagiac Union School District
• NCES district ID: 2612150
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,741
• Composite: 21.03/100
• National rank: #8452
• State rank: #430 of 540 in MI

Livability — Dowagiac

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #6087

Category grades

Amenities F Commute D Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dowagiac, MI
• Population (ZIP): 14,506

Population outlook (Cass County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 49,919 people
• By 2030: 48,320 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 44,230 · -11.4%
• By 2050: 39,852 · -20.2%
• By 2075: 31,440 · -37.0%
• By 2100: 23,914 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cass

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.9) · D 32.5% · R 66.4% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -38.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -33.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.9 2020: R+28.9 2016: R+29.9 2012: R+13.7 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -188.04%
• Current HPI: 186.2757
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-18 Listed $99,000 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

-1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $573 · -29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.