28082 Avalon Dr · Georgetown, DE 19947

$200,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,547 sqft · Manufactured · 26 Days on market

Built 2000

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.5/30.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Large double wide , windows down the wall of great room , nice lot This property is deeded , you own the property and house . New roof 3 years ago, lost interest in remodeling just needs someone to finish drywalling . Close to beach and boating. Indian River School District. Large parking area

Key facts

• Deeded property
• Great room
• New roof

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• DEEDED PROPERTY
• NEW ROOF
• CLOSE TO BEACH
• LARGE PARKING AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $466 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $197k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 2.3% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#35 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities D+, commute D+, schools D.
• Indian River School District (rural): math 25% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #14 of 26 in DE (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $197,000 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.99%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-2,818
• Equity at exit: $29,821

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,378
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19947

• Home prices YoY: -9.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,074 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$40 /mo · $482/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $466

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,484

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $579	-5% $523	+0% $466	+5% $410	+10% $353
Rent	-10% $302	-5% $384	+0% $466	+5% $548	+10% $630
Rate	-1.0pp $567	-0.5pp $517	base $466	+0.5pp $414	+1.0pp $362

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $200,000 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Active 23 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Active 22 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $200,000 Active 21 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $200,000 Active 20 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $200,000 Active 18 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $200,000 Active 17 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $200,000 Active 15 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $200,000 Active 14 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $200,000 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $200,000 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $200,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $200,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $200,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $200,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-26
    listed $200,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $482 · $40/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $821 · $68/mo
• Expected delta: +$339/yr (+$28/mo · 70.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,888
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$482
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,991
• − Management: −$1,991
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,403
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$577
• After-tax cash flow: $5,017/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Indian River School District
• NCES district ID: 1000680
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -27.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $53,838
• Composite: 28.99/100
• National rank: #6620
• State rank: #14 of 26 in DE

Livability — Georgetown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #9760

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute D+ Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 19,343

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 48% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 11% Black 10% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Spanish 33% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.22%
• Current HPI: 341.8283
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $200,000 FSBO.com

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $482 · -26.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.