9169 Newby St · Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO 63137

$79,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 825 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1951 9,422 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Just appraised at $98,000! Seller financing is available with 20% down. Welcome to this adorable, freshly painted home with crisp contrasting trim and a clean, updated feel throughout. The interior blends classic charm with practical improvements, including brand-new windows that help keep the home comfortable in winter and bright year-round. The living room and bedrooms feature new carpeting, while the kitchen and bath are finished with timeless ceramic tile. A brand-new AC condenser was installed on 2/26. New sewer lateral installed in the yard 5/26. The freshly painted basement, from walls to floor, offers a wide-open blank canvas for a rec room, home gym, workshop, hobby space, or extr

Key facts

• 9,422 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1951

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $329 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $78k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#592 in MO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Riverview Gardens (suburban): math 2% / reading 9% proficiency, ranked #324 of 324 in MO (top 100%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 90% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Danforth Elem. (math 2% / reading 2%, grade F, #1,099 of 1,115 statewide, top 100%, 271 students, 99% FRL); Riverview Gardens Sr. High (math 2% / reading 18%, grade F, #501 of 521 statewide, top 97%, 1,331 students, 100% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.6%/yr); 203 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 920 units permitted in St. Louis County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($43k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $550 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($78k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $6k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1951 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $78,307 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1951 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.75%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 5.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $49,500
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
925 Riverview Blvd	0.20mi	2/1.0	830 (+1%)	0mo	$93,000	$112	89
963 Canaan Ave	0.36mi	2/2.0	816 (-1%)	7mo	$29,750	$36	72
949 Canaan Ave	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	800 (-3%)	4mo	$47,625	$60	69
853 Nassau Dr	0.33mi	2/1.0	768 (-7%)	5mo	$39,000	$51	69
8770 Jordan Ave	0.36mi	2/1.0	884 (+7%)	3mo	$48,000	$54	69
1965 Park Ln	0.69mi	2/1.0	825 (0%)	3mo	$65,000	$79	66
1940 Park Ln	0.71mi	2/1.0	830 (+1%)	6mo	$61,000	$73	61
1900 Hildred Ave	0.73mi	2/1.0	825 (0%)	6mo	$25,000	$30	61
819 Portland Ter	0.38mi	2/1.0	936 (+14%)	1mo	$60,000	$64	59
2074 Wedgewood Dr	0.66mi	2/1.0	888 (+8%)	3mo	$36,900	$42	54
8926 Hillview Ave	0.58mi	2/1.0	920 (+12%)	3mo	$38,700	$42	51
828 Marias Dr	0.75mi	2/1.0	884 (+7%)	4mo	$64,900	$73	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.59% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $12,302
• Equity at exit: $11,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.53×
• Total profit: $56,336
• Equity at exit: $6,874

Cash invested: $22,260 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63137

• Rents YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 203
• Price-to-rent: 5.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,121 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$417
• Tax from tax record: −$107 /mo · $1,279/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$235
• Net cashflow: $329

Break-even live

Break-even rent $705

Max offer price $79,500

Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $374	-5% $352	+0% $329	+5% $307	+10% $284
Rent	-10% $241	-5% $285	+0% $329	+5% $373	+10% $418
Rate	-1.0pp $369	-0.5pp $349	base $329	+0.5pp $309	+1.0pp $288

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,875
• Closing costs: $2,385
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1131 Canaan Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	624	$900	$1.44	17d	1	0.35mi
819 Gustav Ave Unit 832 B St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	45d	1	0.38mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$740	$1.35	24d	1	0.38mi
819 Gustav Ave Apt C St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	550	$800	$1.45	45d	1	0.38mi
1225 Newark Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	944	$1,400	$1.48	4d	1	0.44mi
9418 Pattonwood Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	2.0	982	$1,500	$1.53	24d	1	0.48mi
960 Raford Ct St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$950	$1.27	24d	1	0.50mi
605 Fremont Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	750	$995	$1.33	45d	1	0.55mi
8828 Riverview Blvd Apt 2S St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	816	$850	$1.04	45d	1	0.56mi
2056 Coleridge Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	949	$1,195	$1.26	24d	1	0.60mi
8612 Halls Ferry Rd Saint Louis, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	625	$775	$1.24	5d	2	0.66mi
849 River Trail Ct Apt 201 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	45d	1	0.66mi
849 River Trail Ct #102 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	700	$825	$1.18	24d	1	0.66mi
8530 Lowell St Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	918	$1,100	$1.20	45d	1	0.67mi
8548 Drury Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,420	$1.28	45d	1	0.95mi
8817 Shady Grove Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,075	$0.99	24d	1	1.09mi
1942 Damato Ct Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	905	$1,100	$1.22	45d	1	1.09mi
5955 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1032	$1,050	$1.02	4d	1	1.20mi
5932 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1080	$1,373	$1.27	21d	1	1.23mi
8527 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	976	$1,295	$1.33	45d	1	1.23mi
8502 Dianthus Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1072	$1,175	$1.10	24d	1	1.27mi
7 Lamar Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	894	$1,200	$1.34	19d	1	1.28mi
8893 Maya Ln Jennings, MO	1.0–2.0	1.0	600	$930	$1.55	24d	6	1.29mi
1130 Forest Home Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1025	$1,275	$1.24	45d	1	1.32mi
9723 Portage Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,450	$1.43	8d	1	1.34mi
8720 Akins Dr Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,150	$1.14	24d	1	1.35mi
3 Pohlman Ln Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$1,000	$1.42	17d	1	1.38mi
5756 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1080	$995	$0.92	45d	1	1.42mi
2415 Shirley Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	990	$1,450	$1.46	24d	1	1.43mi
2152 Nemnich Rd Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1030	$1,100	$1.07	45d	1	1.46mi
9744 Lanier Dr Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1014	$1,345	$1.33	45d	1	1.46mi
5741 Floy Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	24d	1	1.46mi
2427 Switzer Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,300	$1.29	45d	1	1.50mi

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $79,500 Active 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,500 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,500 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,500 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $79,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $79,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
8. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $79,500 Active 11 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $85,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $85,000 Active 1 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
17. 2026-04-10
    status Pending
18. 2026-04-07
    listed $85,000 Active
19. 2026-03-30
    status Active
20. 2026-03-26
    status Pending
21. 2026-03-03
    status Active
22. 2026-01-31
    status Pending
23. 2026-01-13
    listed $89,900 Active
24. 2025-04-13
    historical $895
25. 2025-03-29
    listed $895
26. 2025-02-20
    historical
27. 2025-02-18
    status Active
28. 2025-02-18
    price $52,700
29. 2025-02-03
    status Pending
30. 2025-01-24
    status Active
31. 2024-10-08
    status Pending
32. 2024-10-01
    listed $53,000 Active
33. 2004-11-10
    soldstatus $72,000
34. 1996-04-05
    soldstatus
35. 1996-04-05
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,279 · $107/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,455
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,453
• − Property taxes: −$1,279
• − Insurance: −$398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,076
• − Management: −$1,076
• − Depreciation: −$2,313
• Taxable income: $2,860
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$686
• After-tax cash flow: $3,264/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Riverview Gardens
• NCES district ID: 2926670
• Math proficiency: 2% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 9% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $32,759
• Composite: 4.22/100
• National rank: #10058
• State rank: #324 of 324 in MO

Livability — Bellefontaine Neighbors

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #592
• US rank: #20944

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bellefontaine Neighbors, MO
• County: Saint Louis County · 888,823 people
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 19,684
• Household income: $43,422
• Rent vs Own: 52.2% rent · 47.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 1863.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,025,227 people
• By 2030: 1,028,023 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 1,020,940 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 1,007,280 · -1.8%
• By 2075: 987,277 · -3.7%
• By 2100: 921,984 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 82% White 13% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.4) · D 60.8% · R 37.4% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.5pp toward D · 2008: 19.9pp · 2024: 23.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.4 2020: D+24.0 2016: D+16.2 2012: D+13.7 2008: D+19.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -96.70%
• Current HPI: 130.6765
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.59%
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+18.1% since first listed

19 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-07 Listed $85,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-30 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-26 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-31 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-13 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-13 Rental Removed $895 BUILDIUM
• 2025-03-29 Listed for Rent $895 BUILDIUM
• 2025-02-20 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-18 Price Changed $52,700 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-03 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-24 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-08 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-01 Listed $53,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-11-10 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1996-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1996-04-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2022): $1,279 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.