3730 S Valley View Dr · Knik-Fairview, AK 99654

$145,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 768 sqft · Other public records · 9 Days on market

Built 1981 0.96 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.5/30.0
• DSCR +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.6/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Excellent ranch style investor fixer upper or owner occupy opportunity! Huge lot and backs to Knik Elementary School! This is an acquired property sold ''As-Is'' for cash or terms acceptable to the seller. This property may qualify for Seller Financing (Vendee. )

Key facts

• Ranch style
• Huge lot
• 0.96 acre lot

Tags

• RANCH STYLE
• HUGE LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $145k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $297 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $145k).
• Cap rate 8.8% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 496 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 6 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $145,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.16% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.79%
• DSCR: 1.39
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,375
• Equity at exit: $21,620

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,387
• Equity at exit: $12,537

Cash invested: $40,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99654

• Home prices YoY: -9.9%
• Rents YoY: 0.0%
• Active inventory: 496
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,678 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$760
• Tax from tax record: −$207 /mo · $2,489/yr
• Insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$352
• Net cashflow: $297

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,302

Max offer price $145,000

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $36,250
• Closing costs: $4,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2898 Vine Rd Wasilla, AK	1.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	44d	1	0.67mi
5321 S Gilca Pl Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1118	$2,200	$1.97	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-22
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $145,000 Active
3. 2022-10-21
   soldstatus
4. 2022-08-18
   status Pending
5. 2022-08-11
   listed $235,000 Active
6. 2015-09-21
   soldstatus
7. 2015-06-20
   listed $135,000
8. 2014-07-18
   listed $132,500
9. 2011-05-20
   soldstatus
10. 2010-10-11
    listed $120,000
11. 2009-03-30
    listed $105,000
12. 2002-09-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,489 · $207/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,134
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,122
• − Property taxes: −$2,489
• − Insurance: −$725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,611
• − Management: −$1,611
• − Depreciation: −$4,218
• Taxable income: $1,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$326
• After-tax cash flow: $3,241/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 44,647
• Household income: $97,544
• Rent vs Own: 28.9% rent · 71.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 872.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Two or more races 12% Native American 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Spanish 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.68%
• Current HPI: 196.8728
• Rent YoY: ▬ 0.04%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+38.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $145,000 AKMLS
• 2022-10-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-08-18 Pending — AKMLS
• 2022-08-11 Listed $235,000 AKMLS
• 2015-09-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2015-06-20 Listed $135,000 AKMLS
• 2014-07-18 Listed $132,500 AKMLS
• 2011-05-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2010-10-11 Listed $120,000 AKMLS
• 2009-03-30 Listed $105,000 AKMLS
• 2002-09-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,489 · +19.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.