6950 Riverland Dr #9 · Redding, CA 96002

$15,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,315 sqft · Manufactured public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1964

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome home to River Breeze! This quite community is located on the river, and offers a tremendous amount of shade from the mature Oak tree's in the park. This adorable fixer in River Breeze is NOW available! 3 bedroom, 1 bath home available for purchase and QUICK move in. Call or stop by today!

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1964
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Land lease amount listed as $650
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Not a senior community; No land lease

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking
• Utilities: Individual electric meter; Individual gas meter; Electric (other); Sewer (other); Water source (other)
• Home design: Manufactured in-park home; Single wide; Built in 1964; Located at 6950 Riverland Dr #9, Redding, CA 96002
• Construction: Metal roof; Aluminum skirting; RoadC make mobile home
• Exterior features: Porch; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cook top; Hood over range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Other flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 partial bathroom; Tub with shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Cooling system (other)
• Interior features: Gas cook top; Range hood; Front porch
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside the home

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $800 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 104.4% vs local median 3.3% in Redding — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#106 in CA, #3,726 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F, cost of living F.
• Pacheco Union Elementary (rural): math 30% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #264 of 517 in CA (top 51%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 246 units permitted in Shasta County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shasta County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.9% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→11/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,775 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 11.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 104.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 350.54%
• DSCR: 16.60
• GRM: 0.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $68,380
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6950 Riverland Dr #7	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+10%)	6mo	$75,000	$52	75
6950 Riverland Dr #20	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-5%)	14mo	$68,000	$54	71
6950 Riverland Dr #15	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-12%)	22mo	$20,000	$17	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.88% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.18×
• Total profit: $46,954
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 24.85×
• Total profit: $100,161
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 96002

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 0.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,684 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$19 /mo · $225/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $800

Break-even live

Break-even rent $671

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 47%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $811	-5% $806	+0% $800	+5% $795	+10% $790
Rent	-10% $667	-5% $734	+0% $800	+5% $867	+10% $933
Rate	-1.0pp $808	-0.5pp $804	base $800	+0.5pp $796	+1.0pp $792

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6656 Churn Creek Rd Unit M-6656 Redding, CA	2.0	2.0	966	$1,625	$1.68	14d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-05
   statusdays on market $15,000 Pending 20 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $15,000 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $15,000 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $15,000 Active 17 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $15,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $15,000 Active 15 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 94% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥105°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 35 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,211
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$225
• − Insurance: −$5,194
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,617
• − Management: −$1,617
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $10,282
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,468
• After-tax cash flow: $7,136/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacheco Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629280
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $59,905
• Composite: 31.26/100
• National rank: #6025
• State rank: #264 of 517 in CA

Livability — Redding

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #106
• US rank: #3726

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Shasta County · 147,641 people
• City population: 112,523
• Metro: Redding, CA
• Population (ZIP): 33,783
• Household income: $73,222
• Rent vs Own: 39.8% rent · 60.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1026.0

Population outlook (Shasta County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,231 people
• By 2030: 176,953 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 169,982 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 162,547 · -9.3%
• By 2075: 145,649 · -18.7%
• By 2100: 123,025 · -31.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 12% Asian 6% Native American 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shasta

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.5) · D 30.5% · R 67.0% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.7pp toward R · 2008: -25.8pp · 2024: -36.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.5 2020: R+33.1 2016: R+37.4 2012: R+30.3 2008: R+25.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -248.70%
• Current HPI: 319.713
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.88%
• Metro: Redding, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

+0.3%/yr

Latest (2020): $28 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.