439 Commercial Ave · Lake Arthur, LA 70549

$70,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,586 sqft · SingleFamily · 245 Days on market

Built 1960 9,458 sqft lot $44/sqft · 26% below area Est $94k · 26% under ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.9/10.0
• Appreciation +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious three bedroom one and a half bath cottage with a large backyard within walking distance to library, restaurants and health clinic. Come take a look at this one today!

Key facts

• Large backyard
• 9,458 sq ft lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• LARGE BACKYARD
• WALKING DISTANCE TO LIBRARY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $371 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $62k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#99 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Jefferson Davis Parish (town): math 30% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #33 of 98 in LA (top 34%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 10 active listings in the ZIP; 69 units permitted in Jefferson Davis Parish in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $196 of equity ($484 loan paydown + $-288 appreciation (-0.4% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson Davis County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-0.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($62k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $61,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.49% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.70%
• DSCR: 2.01
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $94,096
• List price: $70,000
• Delta: -25.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
209 Arthur Ave	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,660 (+5%)	9mo	$100,000	$60	65
532 Kellogg Ave	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,511 (-5%)	12mo	$85,000	$56	64
425 New Orleans Ave	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,349 (-15%)	22mo	$185,000	$137	50
209 Mill Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-12%)	16mo	$45,000	$32	49
716 Arthur Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-15%)	2mo	$58,200	$43	44
226 Arthur Ave	0.29mi	2/3.0 (-1)	1,772 (+12%)	15mo	$75,000	$42	43
116 Magnolia St	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,384 (-13%)	23mo	$105,000	$76	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.41% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.03×
• Total profit: $20,221
• Equity at exit: $18,897

10-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.84×
• Total profit: $55,695
• Equity at exit: $21,605

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Louisiana: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+12
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; no state rent control; civil-law jurisdiction; landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 70549

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Active inventory: 10
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $668/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$219
• Net cashflow: $371

Break-even live

Break-even rent $572

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $410	-5% $391	+0% $371	+5% $351	+10% $331
Rent	-10% $289	-5% $330	+0% $371	+5% $412	+10% $453
Rate	-1.0pp $406	-0.5pp $389	base $371	+0.5pp $353	+1.0pp $334

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-16
   status $70,000 Pending 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $70,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $70,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $70,000 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $70,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $70,000 Active 239 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $70,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $70,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $70,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $70,000 Active 231 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $70,000 Active 230 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $70,000 Active 229 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $70,000 Active 228 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    price $70,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Spacious three bedroom one and a half bath cottage with a large backyard within walking distance to library, restaurants and health clinic. Come take a look at this one today!

15. 2026-01-22
    price $76,000 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Spacious three bedroom one and a half bath cottage with a large backyard within walking distance to library, restaurants and health clinic. Come take a look at this one today!

16. 2025-10-14
    listed $80,000 Active 175-char remark

    Show marketing remark (175 chars)

    Spacious three bedroom one and a half bath cottage with a large backyard within walking distance to library, restaurants and health clinic. Come take a look at this one today!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast LA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $668 · $56/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,496
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$668
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,000
• − Management: −$1,000
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $3,522
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$845
• After-tax cash flow: $3,604/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson Davis Parish
• NCES district ID: 2200810
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -39.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -33.00%
• Median HH income: $40,322
• Composite: 30.21/100
• National rank: #6302
• State rank: #33 of 98 in LA

Livability — Lake Arthur

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #9980

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Arthur, LA
• Population (ZIP): 3,580

Population outlook (Jefferson Davis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,015 people
• By 2030: 30,563 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 29,639 · -4.4%
• By 2050: 28,456 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 25,521 · -17.7%
• By 2100: 21,787 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Black 4% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 25% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson Davis

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.1) · D 18.8% · R 79.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.5pp toward R · 2008: -39.7pp · 2024: -61.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.1 2020: R+55.4 2016: R+53.9 2012: R+47.6 2008: R+39.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.41%
• Current HPI: 128.4869
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.29%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in LA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Telecommunications	2	$23B
▸Utilities	1	$12B
▸Wholesale / Distribution	1	$5B
▸Advertising	1	$2B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $70,000 SWLAR
• 2026-01-22 Price Changed $76,000 SWLAR
• 2025-10-14 Listed $80,000 SWLAR

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $668 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.